Key allies of President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga – who are eyeing higher seats in the 2027 polls – are jittery about a possible coalition arrangement between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino’s recent move to coalesce around Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka following the appointment of some ODM members to the Cabinet, and hints of a possible coalition agreement ahead, has exposed growing anxiety in both Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga’s camps.
Sunday Nation has learnt that similar jittery has already hit Mombasa, Kisii, Kakamega, and Homa Bay, among other counties. Political leaders from a rival camp have already declared interest in running against the incumbent governors. The same scenario is replicated in other areas where ODM or UDA command support.
Mr Owino has declared interest in the Nairobi gubernatorial seat, which is currently held by Johnson Sakaja of UDA. It is the same scenario in Kisii county where South Mugirango MP Sylvanus Osoro has been in a vicious fight with Governor Simba Arati, with his eyes on 2027.
In Mombasa, Nyali MP Mohamed Ali also seems uncomfortable with the arrangement. He is said to be eyeing the Mombasa governor position, currently held by ODM’s Addullswamad Nassir, who is also the party's deputy leader
“As much as I have embraced the broad-based government, I want to assure Mombasa residents that their cry for better leadership and accountability remains a key priority for me.
Because Mombasa residents have suffered, the current county government has not undertaken any development projects in the two years of leadership, not even constructing a public toilet to boost sanitation. In two years two schools have been built,” said Mr Ali, following the appointment of Hassan Joho as Mining Cabinet Secretary.
The thinking by some of the political players is that such an arrangement is likely to have a trail of political casualties and beneficiaries as it could occasion major compromises and zoning of strongholds of the two outfits.
The fears seem to stem from the compromises made during the last general election, when some candidates were forced to step down to accommodate the interests of affiliate parties in both Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition and Kenya Kwanza Coalition.
At the same time, Dr Ruto would be seeking to defend his seat and would likely try to convince Mr Odinga and his ODM party to back his second term in office.
Should ODM agree to such an arrangement, they are likely to have certain demands that could include zoning ODM strongholds and ensuring UDA does not field candidates in the areas.
They include Mr Arati (Kisii), Mr Nassir (Mombasa), Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), Gideon Mung’aro (Kilifi), Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay), Paul Otuom (Busia) among other first-time governors. In Homa Bay, former Nairobi Governor Dr Evans Kidero decamped to UDA as part of the plan to challenge Ms Wanga’s reelection.
“Going forward we want to walk together as Kenyans and build our nation. Even though we don’t have an agreement with Kenya Kwanza, we have donated our senior leaders to help President Ruto and we shall see if we can move together in 2027. We want to join together and move with unity,” said Mr Arati during Dr Ruto’s tour of Nyanza.
Following the truce between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga, Governor Arati, and Mr Osoro seem to be warming up to each other, a development that could inform the 2027 contest.
Mr Sakaja told Sunday Nation that the unity of the country is more important. He said the quest to bring the people together should not be clouded by the 2027 politics of those who stand to benefit and those who stand to lose.
“It is still too early to start looking at it in terms of the possible beneficiaries and losers. People should not be scared about 2027, because I would not want a free pass,” said Mr Sakaja.
He warned those who have already started realigning themselves that there is ‘danger in making premature political decisions’.
“I have been an advocate for this unity, even during Uhuru Kenyatta's tenure. Let us support the unity and when the time comes, people will compete on fair grounds,” said Mr Sakaja.
Despite being elected on UDA, Mr Sakaja has become a close ally of Mr Odinga. Some of the ODM MPs and MCAs in Nairobi have since become his strongest defenders.
But Mr Owino, who has declared interest in the seat, has remained one of his fiercest critics. On the day Mr Odinga was being unveiled officially for his AUC bid at State House, the Embakasi East MP was with Mr Musyoka as Wiper leader installed himself as the official opposition leader.
Mr Musyoka has indicated his plans to form a new political alliance for his 2027 presidential bid. Mr Owino is seen to be weighing his options, which could include teaming with Mr Musyoka to get backing for the Nairobi race.
His decision, however, seems to be linked to the 2027 governor race. Should Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga go to the 2027 polls as a team, he could be sacrificed in the political negotiations.
He told Sunday Nation that he remains an ODM member, adding that he has been accompanying Mr Musyoka because they are both in Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition.
Mr Owino also said that he was yet to decide which position to run for in the 2027 polls. He said he can as well run for the presidency since Dr Ruto has failed to deliver. He also accused Mr Sakaja of failing to deliver on the promises he made to the people of Nairobi.
“I am a member of ODM, and I continue in my role of oversight to the executive. We cannot stop holding this government to account. There is nothing unique about Kalonzo, he is a member of Azimio, which ODM also belongs to,” said Mr Owino, who also declared his support for Mr Odinga’s AUC bid.
In Kakamega, Senator Boni Khalwale of UDA has declared interest in the governorship. The latest development could, however, complicate his chances since picking a candidate in the next poll could require major consensus. Mr Khalwale, however, seems to have the backing of Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary, Wycliffe Oparanya, who has fallen out with Mr Barasa.
Cleophas Malala, who contested for Kakamega governor on a UDA ticket in the last poll, has fallen out with President Ruto. He has since been kicked out as the UDA Secretary General and replaced with Hassan Omar.
