Battle for ODM presidential ticket shapes up to three-horse race

The battle for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) presidential ticket is shaping up to a three-horse race between party leader Raila Odinga and his two deputies.

ODM co-deputy party leaders — Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho and Kakamega’s Wycliffe Oparanya — said they will be going for nothing less than the top seat.

Even though Mr Odinga has not formally declared his interest in the 2022 presidential race and the ODM ticket, he has started campaigns in earnest to consolidate his support ahead of his possible fifth and final stab at the presidency.

On Wednesday, he addressed rallies in Roysambu and Githurai and is today (Thursday) meeting religious leaders at Ufungamano House in Nairobi.

Apply for party’s ticket

Mr Joho and Mr Oparanya revealed that they will apply for the party’s ticket and battle it out with their boss.

“ODM is a democratic party. I will apply for the position and seek the party’s ticket,” Mr Joho told the Nation.

Mr Oparanya also disclosed that he will seek the party’s ticket ahead of next year’s elections.

“We still have a whole 30 days and I still have to look for Sh1 million which is a requirement for eligibility to seek the ODM ticket,” the Council of Governors Chairman said.

Interested applicants seeking to fly the Orange party’s flag had been directed to deposit a non-refundable Sh1 million.

“The National Elections Board is directed to immediately begin the process of identifying the party's presidential candidate for purposes of the 2022 election by inviting those interested to express interest,” party Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna said.

ODM life members

Applicants must be life members of ODM, be Kenyan citizens registered as voters and have the qualifications for being elected as MP.

They must also have degrees from universities recognised in Kenya.

The party has set February 26 as the deadline for the applications.

The call for applications might mean campaigns by the interested politicians — which are crucial in mobilising voters in various regions — before a party national delegates' convention is held for the endorsement of one candidate.

ODM had a similar arrangement just two years after it was formed, prior to the 2007 elections.

Mr Odinga, Deputy President William Ruto, Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi, former minister Joe Nyagah, and current Tourism Cabinet Secretary Najib Balala, in a group later called The Pentagon, ran similar campaigns before the party delegates endorsed Mr Odinga as the ODM presidential candidate.

In Mr Odinga’s recent campaigns, he has concentrated on attacking Dr Ruto, touted as his possible fiercest challenger in the 2022 election.

This probably indicates Mr Odinga’s confidence in once again clinching the party’s ticket.

'Hustler Nation'

In an attack against the DP’s ''Hustler Nation'' movement, the ODM leader has cautioned against improper sloganeering that could be a recipe for chaos in the country.

“We must have an honest conversation about sloganeering that has the potential of upsetting the peace and stability of our nation. Our youth deserve access to gainful employment. The divisive "hustler" debate cannot move millions of youth to gainful employment,” said Mr Odinga.

Political analysts have indicated that accusations by Dr Ruto against Mr Odinga over the failure of Jubilee government after the 2017 elections over his ''Handshake'' deal with President Uhuru Kenyatta had sent ODM strategists back to the drawing board, forcing the former prime minister to launch an attack against the DP and generally the Jubilee administration.

Ground shifting

“The ground seems to be slippery and shifting under foot by the waves, winds and the storms that are likely to inform and influence the various party issues ahead of 2022.

“With the shaky ground, information and misinformation regarding the extent to which the BBI is popular or otherwise on the ground is informing ODM’s desired change of strategy,” political analyst Javas Bigambo says.

He went on: “Ruto has been trying to distance himself from some of the observable failures of the second term of Uhuru and Jubilee administration which he is part of.”

Handshake cocoon

“ODM strategists and thinkers are now trying to emerge out of the Handshake cocoon to make it clear to their supporters and Kenyans that the deal was not about implementation of Jubilee development agenda and strategies so that their failures are not heaped on Raila Odinga’s shoulders in case he is keen on the 2022 presidential contest.”

Political analyst Dismas Mokua said ODM should not be blamed for Jubilee failures since Mr Odinga is not part of government.

“We are witnessing what has just happened in the US where Donald Trump created a toxic environment characterised by fake news, alternative facts, deceit and lies.

“When DP Ruto indicates that ODM forced its way into government and running the show is a toxic statement which is anchored on fake news, alternative lies, and deceit as Raila does not live at State House and is not President,” Mr Mokua said.

However, political strategist Kipchumba Karori questioned the role of Cabinet Secretaries who have been visiting Mr Odinga, insisting there is no way the former prime minister can meet government officials “if he is not part of government”.

“ODM strategists have realised that, by being sucked into the Handshake too much, they allow William Ruto to get away with a lot in terms of political strategy.

“They are now trying to make sure that because they can’t blame Uhuru for Jubilee failures, they want to find a way of blaming the DP yet you cannot blame a deputy president for the promises a regime gave,” Mr Karori said.

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