In the early hours of Thursday, February 3, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga cancelled his tour of Busia County for apparent urgent business in Nairobi.
The nature of the business was not disclosed to the excited crowd that was eager to receive the veteran politician.
It was a week in which Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula had stirred the political scene, after decamping from the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) to Deputy President William Ruto’s side and forming the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
Just a day before Mr Odinga called off the Busia meeting, the remaining OKA leaders – Mr Gideon Moi of Kanu, Ms Martha Karua (Narc Kenya), Mr Cyrus Jirongo (United Democratic Party) and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka of (Wiper) had signed the Deed of Assignment, a pact that officially committed constituent political parties to work together ahead of the August 9 General Election.
Before the cancellation of the Busia tour, seemingly well calculated, social media posts postulated that a deal had been hammered in which OKA leaders had agreed to join the Mr Odinga-led Azimio La Umoja Movement as partners.
Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi had been picked as the venue of the signing ceremony and announcement.
Preparations were complete, including heavy security presence.
The agreement that was to be signed, which a source refers to as a Letter of Intent, had been prepared and so were the speeches that were to be delivered.
The Nation has learnt that the deal collapsed after OKA, which was to be represented by Mr Musyoka, developed cold feet out of fear that it was being set up for failure just days after it had been dealt a blow with the exit of Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula.
Just before the Letter of Intent was drafted, Mr Musyoka had visited State House Nairobi, where he met President Uhuru Kenyatta.
But matters went off track when some bloggers went public with what was presumed to have been a private conversation, announcing with finality that OKA was to sign an agreement with Azimio.
“We don’t know who the bloggers are or what their motive was. Whoever they were, they blew the whole thing,” said a source versed with what happened on the day.
The collapse of that meeting is just one of the many trust deficits the two political-friends-turned-foes have been battling to bridge in a bid to resuscitate their union that was jolted by the March 2018 handshake between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta.
Though Mr Musyoka has expressed willingness to work with Mr Odinga, he is reluctant to commit on paper, citing past betrayals and pressure from some of his allies who are opposed to any deal that suggests that their man should back the ODM chief’s presidential bid for the third time in a row.
Late last year, the Wiper Party leader publicly declared that it would be foolish to support Mr Odinga’s presidential bid again, and challenged the ODM leader to back his candidacy instead.
It appears the Wiper Party leader’s scepticism about a pact with Mr Odinga remains strong and is not keen to rush into anything without guarantee that such an agreement will hold.
While addressing a rally in Nyamira on Thursday, Mr Musyoka said despite his previous misgivings over an alliance with Mr Odinga, he is ready to work with the ODM leader in “structured” negotiations to ensure a first-round win in the August 9 presidential race.
Sources tell the Nation that while behind-the scenes negotiations between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka are ongoing, they are being held back in part by the bad history between the two men and the demand by the Wiper leader for a guarantee that what is agreed on will be enforced should their intended coalition emerge victorious in August.
On the other hand, President Kenyatta, who has made public his disdain for Kenya Kwanza Alliance, has reached out to Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka urging them to work together in the much-hyped Azimio alliance.
Determined to ensure that the two work together, the President – according to a source – invited them for a meeting at State House, where he asked the pair to sign a Letter of Commitment promising to form a partnership.
The Nation has learned that Mr Musyoka asked President Kenyatta to act as the guarantor of such an agreement, to avoid the betrayal that has destroyed similar deals in the past, including the famous memorandum of understanding (MoU) that sullied relations between Mr Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki soon after National Rainbow Coalition victory in 2002.
The other condition the Wiper Party leader has placed on the table is that the Azimio Grand Alliance should be unveiled without a presidential candidate, so that all political parties seeking to join do so as equal partners.
He also wants Governors Charity Ngilu of Kitui, Makueni’s Kivutha Kibwana and Alfred Mutua of Machakos asked to stop attacking him in the race for the control of the region’s votes.
In an interview Saturday, Senate Minority Whip Mutula Kilonzo Jr, said there is no agreement between Azimio and OKA.
He said any negotiations between the two political formations would depend on the outcome of the ruling Jubilee Party delegates’ conference that is planned for Friday and Saturday in Nairobi.
“We do not want to get into a house that is already arranged,” he told the Nation .
While all other political parties have endorsed their leaders to contest the presidency in August, all eyes will be on Jubilee, when its holds the NDC.
Having produced the current President, there is a feeling in OKA that the ruling party should not endorse a flagbearer in the August elections or even lay claim to any leadership role in the proposed alliance.
This position is, however, complicated by the fact that Mr Kenyatta has already declared on several occasions that his choice of a successor is Mr Odinga.
The President remains the Jubilee party leader. He has indicated that he will hold the position even after his presidency.
And while there is no deputy party leader in the wake of Dr Ruto’s shift to UDA, it is unlikely the NDC will endorse one of its own for the presidency.
Instead, Mr Kenyatta, according to sources, has summoned the NDC as a forum specially designed to endorse Mr Odinga’s fifth stab at the presidency and consummate the 2018 handshake between them.
“It is the outcome of the Jubilee NDC that will determine the future of the Azimio La Umoja,” Senator Kilonzo said, adding that endorsing Mr Odinga could portend trouble for formation of the alliance.
“We want to join on the same level to avoid being swallowed. But the most important thing is that Wiper wants to know the position Jubilee will take on the Presidential race. It could be complicated if they insist on Mr Odinga.”
The senator said it is doubtful Mr Odinga would want to face OKA “because he has a lot of questions to answer”.
He was referring to the ODM leader’s pledge to Wiper in 2017 and the fight over political parties’ funds.
Mr Odinga had declared his 2017 bid as the last bullet and promised to support Mr Musyoka in a future presidential contest.
The Wiper Party leader’s allies insist their man should pursue this promise as one way of extracting a concession to join Azimio.
But Wiper believes Jubilee delegates should restrict the agenda of the day to merely endorsing the calls for the party to join a coalition and leave out the question of Mr Odinga’s candidacy.
OKA spokesman Fredrick Okango said the alliance organised its house after signing the Deed of Assignment with partner parties earlier this month.
The deed, he says, created internal organs that are operational and consolidated communication on matters relevant to the members.
Stung by the actions of Mr Mudavadi and Senator Wetang’ula, the alliance moved fast and signed a memorandum, which has brought together all the constituent parties and enumerated in greater detail how OKA will operate.
The memorandum declares that members have an equal stake in OKA and lays down the principles on how the alliance will operate, especially when engaging the public or other political parties.
“The OKA structure has been set up and it’s working. While there are backroom negotiations for possible coalition-making with likeminded political parties, such engagements are not official,” he said.
OKA will unveil its flagbearer and leadership line-up on February 25, in line with the deed, besides its symbol, flag and the 10-point manifesto whose key plank will be economic revival and the fight against corruption.
It will on the same day deposit the coalition agreement to the Office of Registrar of Political Parties as required by law and then attend the NDCs of Jubilee and ODM to be held on the same day.
Mr Okango said it is only after the alliance officially unveils its leadership structure that it will formally start engagement with other parties, with a view to forming coalitions.
“We shall task one of the four leaders who will be picked as the flagbearer to engage like-minded parties in forming a coalition,” Mr Okango said, even as he added that Kenya Kwanza is out of consideration.
He revealed that OKA has already identified its friends, and that it would attend the two NDCs “because we have been invited”.
This position was confirmed by Mr Jirongo, who refused to say if there are negotiations between the two sides.
“The way to destroy organisations is to avoid established channels and start speaking on behalf of others,” Mr Jirongo said.
“Everything we have done has been agreed jointly and in public. Once we start the process (of negotiating), we shall communicate to Kenyans. There will be nothing to hide.”
