New poll suggests close governor races in coast

A new opinion poll shows close gubernatorial contests in Coast with a cliff-hanger expected in Lamu where there’s a tight race between incumbent Fahim Twaha of Jubilee and Issa Timamy of the Amani National Congress.

Mr Timamy has a popularity rating of 33 per cent, while Mr Twaha is at 30 per cent, showing a difference of only three percentage points.

Ms Omar Umra of Safina Party, the only female candidate, is third with 11 per cent, while former deputy governor Eric Mugo of Narc-Kenya is fourth with only two per cent.

About 24 per cent of those polled between July 9 and 19 are yet to make up their mind. The county has 69,774 registered voters.

In Mombasa, the Orange Democratic Movement’s Abdulswamad Nassir leads the pack with a popularity rating of 50 per cent as former Nairobi governor Mike Sonko follows at 22 per cent.

Former senator Hassan Omar of the United Democratic Alliance is a distant third with nine per cent while Deputy Governor William Kingi has one per cent. Undecided voters are at 18 per cent.

In Kwale, the battle to succeed Governor Salim Mvurya has narrowed down to Ms Fatuma Achani (UDA) and Prof Hamadi Boga of ODM. Ms Achani, the deputy governor, leads with 31 per cent, Prof Boga polled 25 per cent while Mangale Luganzi of Pamoja Africa Alliance (PAA) is at 10 per cent.

About 29 per cent of voters are still undecided in a county with 320, 782 registered voters, third-highest in Coast. Other aspirants are Wiper’s Ali Chirau Mwakwere, Sammy Ruwa (Independent) and Dena Daniel (Kanu).

In Taita-Taveta, Governor Granton Samboja faces the biggest fight of his political career as he trails Mwatate MP Andrew Mwadime (Independent) by three percentage points. Mr Mwadime is at 24 per cent with the incumbent at 21 per cent.

Former Governor John Mruttu (UDA) is a distant third with 11 per cent, Danson Mwazo (Wiper) polled seven per cent, while George Mwazighe had four per cent.

With slightly over 170,000 voters, most of the 12 candidates are likely to turn their focus on the 27 per cent undecided voters.

The battle to succeed Governor Amason Kingi in Kilifi is a two-horse race between ODM’s Gideon Mung’aro and UDA’s Aisha Jumwa with the race set to be decided by 25 per cent of voters yet to make up their mind.

Mr Mung’aro has a popularity rating of 32 per cent, the Malindi MP is at 21 per cent, while George Kithi (PAA) is a distant third with nine per cent.

In Tana River, Governor Dhadho (ODM) leads his predecessor Hussein Dado (UDA) by 35 per cent to 19 per cent, while Abdi Nassir (UPIA) has 16 per cent. Their eyes will be on the 19 per cent undecided voters.

In senatorial races, Mombasa’s Mohamed Faki of ODM leads with 35 per cent, Hamisi Mwaguya (UDA) is a distant second with eight per cent. However, the undecided voters are more than 51 per cent.

In Kwale, Senator Boy Issa Juma (ODM) leads with 21 per cent while Yama Anthony trails with 11 per cent. The race is far from being decided with undecided voters at 58 per cent.

Kilifi Senator Stewart Madzayo leads with 24 per cent, Mwabonje Shukran and Chilumo Benjamin tie at seven per cent while 48 per cent are undecided.

In Tana River, former Garsen MP Danson Mungatana has built an unsurmountable lead with a 43 per cent approval rating. His closest challenger Wario Juma is at six per cent although the undecided voters stand at 36 per cent.

In Lamu, Senator Loitiptip Anwar (Independent) has an approval rating of only two per cent. Haji Ahmed Bunu (ODM) lads with 12 per cent, while Joseph Kamau (Jubilee) and Francis Mugo (UDA) tie at 11 per cent. About 52 per cent of the voters remain undecided.

In Taita-Taveta, Mwaruma Jones (ODM) leads with 29 per cent while former Wundanyi MP Thomas Mwadeghu (Wiper) and Godwin Mwamodo (Jubilee) tie at seven per cent.

Zam Zam Mohamed leads the Mombasa Woman Rep race with 29 per cent followed by Fatma Barayan at nine per cent, while Amina Abdalla is at six per cent. About 56 per cent of voters remain undecided. In Lamu, Monicah Marubu leads with 20 per cent, followed by Mote Nana at 14 per cent and Loo Amina Kale with nine per cent, while the undecided voters are 43 per cent.

Taita-Taveta Woman Rep Lydia Haika is in the lead at 23 per cent followed by Joyce Lay and Getrude Shuwe at six per cent. However, 46 per cent of the votes are still up for grabs. In Kilifi, Gertrude Mbeyu leads with 17 per cent with Juliet Baya trailing with nine per cent. Christine Zawadi is at seven per cent.

In Kwale, the woman rep race is wide open with no candidate in a clear lead with 61 per cent of the voters yet to make up their mind. Masito Fatuma has popularity rating of 15 per cent, Masha Salim 11 per cent while Chitsangi Zainab is at six per cent.

In Tana River, Abdullahi Amina is in a tight race with Hadida Nkondo and Abio Alfelt, with slim margins separating the three. Ms Amina’s popularity stands at 15 per cent followed by 13 per cent for Ms Nkondo while Ms Alfelt is at eight per cent.