Odinga, rebel with a cause who became darling of the state

Nothing better illustrates this than today’s meetings in Nairobi of top organs of the ruling Jubilee Party and the ODM party, both of which are united by one goal: to endorse Mr Odinga’s presidential candidacy.

Mr Odinga is the longest-serving political detainee alive — jailed cumulatively for nine years,  including once for an alleged attempt to topple President Daniel Moi’s government. He has also battled presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta. 

That he is now a favourite of the ruling elite demonstrates the transformation that his critics allege is a betrayal of ideals that made him a populist figure.

With four unsuccessful attempts behind him, Mr Odinga goes into the August elections having earned the notorious label of a perpetual political loser, but his supporters hope his unusual run this time round might just pay off.

He is starting off this fifth run a different man who is facing a dangerous clash of character. Having built a decades-long profile of a resistance rebel politics, Mr Odinga now finds himself accused of being a puppet, fondly defending the very government his supporters, and by a large extension his opponents, had known him to fight.

Known to be a staunch anti-corruption crusader, he now finds himself hamstrung following his camaraderie with his erstwhile opponent President Kenyatta. Many can’t remember the last time he raised a finger against runaway government corruption, and that’s so unlike Raila.

To his critics, Mr Odinga has become an appendage of the ruling elite, which often comes with the incumbency tag and the feeling that one is being forced on the electorate.

Where Mr Odinga was the dependable politician who led protests against the Jubilee government’s borrowing in Uhuru’s first term, the former premier is now the administration’s defender-in-chief, explaining away its rising debt while castigating those calling for a review of the cost of food. Candidate Odinga of 2022 is less abrasive and less aggressive than in the past four elections.

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The critics have even argued that he has abandoned the ideals that defined his political brand, which made him a darling of the masses and the political behemoth that he is. 

The policies he has supported include the introduction of VAT on petroleum products and the controversial increase of national debt through continued borrowing to finance capital-intensive infrastructure projects.

And then there is the question of his age and what it means for the gruelling political campaign trail and the tight schedules of presidential duty. At 77, Odinga is not the spring chicken he was when he first ran in 1997, or in his successive attempts in 2007, 2013 and 2017.

Admitting this age factor, National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, his close confidant, says it actually plays to his advantage.

“The difference between the past and now is that Mr Odinga has matured and is more experienced. He is a fatherly figure who understands the dynamics of the Kenya nation state,” Mr Mohamed says.

Mr Odinga, he adds, exemplifies the struggles Kenya has gone through in the post-independence era.

The country, he says, “wants a mature leader; one with experience, and Mr Odinga offers all that in abundance. He has grown into a fatherly figure. Nothing annoys or excites him anymore,” Mr Mohamed says.

Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo argues that age comes with wisdom, which is vital in governing a country.

“American President Joe Biden is older than Raila. Mzee Jomo Kenyatta became President when older and I suspect Mwai Kibaki too. Age makes him tried, tested and true. He comes with wisdom, experience and tolerance,” Ms Odhiambo says.

But while his change of tune and age might work to his detriment, Mr Odinga enters the race with key advantages that were not available to him in his previous attempts.

With President Kenyatta’s endorsement, he starts the race with a lesser hostile Mt Kenya region and a more receptive state machinery that, for the first time ever, is sympathetic to his bid.

Ever since Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, his father, fell out with first President Jomo Kenyatta, the Odingas have been viewed suspiciously by the state, and oftentimes have been handled with a long stick every time they have been invited to the table.

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This was the case when he enjoyed the power of incumbency as Prime Minister in 2013. Mr Odinga confronted challenges like an outsider,  with state operatives frustrating his bid, like they are now doing with his main rival in the State House race Deputy President William Ruto. 

But this advantage comes with phrases like “state project” , “a puppet of wealthy individuals” and an “appendage of the ruling elite” being thrown his way by critics. 

“While we’re busy planning how to uplift the welfare of poor Kenyans, some other people are busy in hotels planning how to install a puppet president who they will control so that their selfish interests continue being served,” DP Ruto said during a campaign stop in Kisii last week.

Describing Mr Odinga as a state project, Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi went further and accused the President of planning to cling to power by installing Mr Odinga as a puppet president through whom he (Kenyatta) can continue controlling government.

Mr Odinga’s presidential campaign press secretary Dennis Onsarigo admits that his 2022 presidential run will be a different one, but insists that he has other things working for him that will be to his advantage.

“He ran on the platform of reforms in 2007, 2013, and 2017 and he is now going to run on the platform of unity and economy. All these things talk to the Kenyan people. 

“Raila has always been there for the people; he has always fought for the people and he will not change either as President or as a civilian. He will always fight for the people,” Mr Onsarigo said.

He sees the 2022 election as one that will be akin to the 2002 National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) wave that saw President Kibaki roar to victory on an anti-establishment, pro-reforms platform that swept Kanu out of power.

University of Nairobi scholar Herman Manyora points out that Mr Odinga has earned the confidence of influence peddlers who now trust him with state power, which is the most remarkable difference with all his previous attempts.

“He’s an outsider in the national power matrix,” Mr Manyora explains. “This is the first time the deep state has trusted an outsider with state power. This is very significant.”

State machinery 

The trust, mainly by the power brokers in the President’s backyard, like the Mt Kenya Foundation, has played a big role in the President picking Mr Odinga as his preferred successor, much to the surprise of a nation that thought such a move was unthinkable.

As a result, Mr Odinga goes to the polls at the back of a receptive state machinery that has traditionally frowned at the very idea of his candidacy, including 2013 when he contested as an incumbent Prime Minister.

While agreeing that Mr Odinga is a rank outsider, Moi University political science scholar Masibo Lumala argued that candidate Odinga of 2022 has shed off his radical past which, gives him an advantage in the August 9 poll.

“Mr Odinga of 2022 is more mature and less radical, at least politically. He is at the exact spot where Mr Kibaki was in 2002. On the opposite end, DP Ruto is as confrontational as Mr Odinga was in 2002,” he said.

Dr Lumala further faulted those calling the ODM leader a state project, noting that Mr Odinga in 2022 is starkly different from Mr Kenyatta in 2002.

First, unlike Mr Kenyatta in 2002, the former PM is an experienced political operator who has constructed a solid national base.

“It was easy to dismiss Mr Kenyatta as a state project because he was a political novice. Moi, [who has since died], handpicked him from nowhere and hoisted him on Kenyans as a presidential candidate,” he said.

He further noted that while there was an open rebellion against then President Moi when he imposed Mr Kenyatta, the President’s endorsement of Mr Odinga has been largely accepted across the country.

“There is no rebellion against President Kenyatta’s choice of Mr Odinga,” the scholar said.

Narok Senator Ledama Olekina said that Mr Odinga has developed a diplomatic approach on tackling certain thorny issues and that is why he no longer calls press conferences like he used to do before.

“Raila has consistently pointed out what he thinks is wrong and should be fixed. He does not need to call press conferences to point them out. He simply picks the call and speaks to the President and things are fixed. This is what the handshake meant to Kenya,” the Narok senator said.