Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is caught up in a political dilemma on whether to cut links with opposition leader Raila Odinga or continue coalescing with hopes that he would back his 2027 presidential bid.
In previous interviews, Mr Musyoka had indicated his plans to run for the top seat and largely expected an endorsement by Mr Odinga, for whom he sacrificed his ambitions back in 2013, 2017 and in the 2022 presidential contests.
But Mr Odinga’s new political deal with President William Ruto – that has seen five of his close allies join the Cabinet – has rattled Mr Musyoka as it could extend to cover the 2027 General Election.
The President appointed Mr John Mbadi to take charge of the crucial National Treasury and Economic Planning docket, Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs CS) and Opiyo Wandayi as Energy CS.
Beatrice Askul , another close ally of Mr Odinga, has also been nominated by the President as East Africa Community and Regional Affairs minister. She is awaiting approval by Parliament following her vetting. The President is also expected to make further changes in his government to accommodate Mr Odinga’s allies, including appointing them to Principal Secretaries’ positions.
Should the veteran opposition leader succeed in his AUC bid, chances are that he would be out of the 2027 presidential race. With his key allies holding key ministerial positions in government, Mr Odinga would likely back Dr Ruto’s re-election given the two options of either supporting the President or Mr Musyoka.
Such a scenario would present Mr Musyoka with tough choices as he will have to court new allies to enable him mount a formidable run against a sitting President.
Talks of a possible Kalonzo and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua ticket for the presidency have since emerged. Mr Gachagua and the President have had a falling out, with analysts predicting that the DP may be dropped as Dr Ruto’s running mate in the next elections.
The trouble, however, would be who to play second fiddle to in such a deal. Political support base and a war chest are major considerations which, however, could be a disadvantage for Mr Musyoka, assuming that Mr Gachagua succeeds in rallying the populous Mt Kenya behind him.
The DP has sought to mend fences with former President Uhuru Kenyatta to forge a united regional force that could pursue other alliances as insurance against perceived looming betrayal following Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga’s political arrangement.
During a televised interview last week, Mr Gachagua said “Mr Musyoka has not wronged the region”. And already there is a push to have the Kamba community become part of the larger Gikuyu, Embu, Meru Association (Gema).
Mr Musyoka has, in the recent past, vowed not back any other candidate for the presidency, as “doing that would mean he retires from politics because of age”.
“I was ready to be president in 2002 but other candidates and I put aside out ambitions and said Kibaki (Mwai) ‘Tosha’. Then I was to run for the top seat after Kibaki’s term ends. I was ready to move from being vice president in 2013 to become president.
“Giving up my presidential ambition now would actually mean I go home. It is as simple as that. That means it is not an option,” Mr Musyoka, who turned 70 years old last December, told Nation in a recent exclusive interview.
The Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa, who is also an Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition principal, has indicated that members are ready to bite the bullet and cut links with Mr Odinga.
Wiper, DAP-K, Mr Odinga’s ODM party, Narc-Kenya under Martha Karua, Jubilee and other parties are part of the Azimio coalition.
At the weekend, Mr Wamalwa described Mr Odinga’s decision to join hands with Dr Ruto as the height of political betrayal.
"For us Azimio to go into bed with William Ruto is betrayal of the highest order and this is why as we sit here today, in Azimio, we have reached a point of divorce. In a marriage, grounds for divorce can arise; one of them is when you have irreconcilable differences,” said Mr Wamalwa.
“When a marriage breaks down irretrievably because of infidelity the court grants that divorce. I think that's where we have reached. We have disagreed as a matter of principle because people are saying ‘Okoa Kenya’ but part of Azimio is saying ‘tuokoe Zakayo’. The two are irreconcilable differences," he added.
Some of Mr Musyoka’s allies told Nation that the former vice president is already reaching out to like-minded political figures to consolidate support under the Azimio coalition.
“It only follows that he brings on board other like-minded players. There are many people who are opposed to the current regime and they want space in Azimio. You will soon start seeing many political players trooping to Azimio,” Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua said.
“You will also begin to see a lot of crisscrossing the country to sell the Azimio agenda. He (Kalonzo) has to consolidate the coalition and also sell his 2027 agenda,” he said.
Mr Musyoka and Mr Wamalwa have separately declared their plans to run for the presidency in the next poll. Insiders have revealed plans for the two to fly a joint ticket, with Mr Musyoka as the flag bearer and Mr Wamalwa the running mate. But if they choose to work with Mr Gachagua, this arrangement will radically change to accommodate new interests.
Some of Mr Musyoka’s allies said they are ready to rally support for Mr Musyoka in the absence of Mr Odinga.
“ODM has always had convenient ways of walking out of coalition agreements. Tinga (Raila) was not going to support Kalonzo in 2027. The signs have been there. Azimio was a vehicle for 2022. In reality, it does not exist going into the next elections,” said Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jnr.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo shared similar views, saying they are ready to chart their political path without Mr Odinga.
“He (Raila) is free to go. By he joining the government will not stop other people from charting a new path. Kalonzo is with the people and will form the next government without Tinga. Governments have in the past been formed without Raila,” said Mr Maanzo.
