The upcoming by-elections are being used as a critical testing ground for the 2027 General Elections, with major parties employing "negotiated democracy" to consolidate power.
Major political parties have resorted to negotiated democracy in preparations for the upcoming by-elections that are shaping up as a high-stakes contest and a testing ground for the 2027 General Elections.
Parties in both the broad-based government and the united opposition have started prevailing upon aspirants to drop out of the polls in favour of their colleagues perceived to be more popular in a scheme aimed at boosting the outfits’ chances of winning in the 23 electoral areas.
President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of Raila Odinga have resorted to the scheme in their effort to reaffirm themselves as the most influential politicians in the country.
President William Ruto (second left), former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (left), ODM leader Raila Odinga, Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula and his Senate counterpart Amason Kingi.
On the other hand, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his allies in the opposition are also seeking to leverage the polls to gauge their growing influence ahead of the next presidential contest.
Although this strategy may work for the political parties, it has already triggered acrimonious fallouts as aspirants protest crushed political ambitions.
In Mbeere North, Mr Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has suffered a blow after its candidate Duncan Mbui bolted out in protest. Mr Mbui had been prevailed upon to step down in favour of Mr Newton Kariuki of Democratic Party (DP) of former Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi. The opposition seeks to field a joint candidate in the race to boost its chances of clinching the seat.
“I have been watching with a keen eye the goings-on at the DCP party and have come to the conclusion that it is a members’ club within the so-called United Opposition,” said Mr Mbui.
He added: “The club has been influenced to decide that DCP should not field a candidate in Mbeere North, a decision I view as a deliberate attempt to kill my ambition and that of the KivuiKivui fraternity (his campaign slogan meaning a mallet).”
He concluded: “Arising from this, we have decided to go independent... We have always been independent and shall win as independent.” The opposition camp is said to have endorsed DP’s candidate since its former MP, Mr Mr Geoffrey Ruku, who was appointed to join the Cabinet was elected on the party ticket in 2022.
Similar tensions are also brewing in both UDA and ODM after the parties agreed to cede grounds for each other in some of the electoral areas set to hold elections on November 27, 2025.
Former Attorney General Justin Muturi.
But after weeks of tussling between Democratic Party leader Mr Justin Muturi and Mr Gachagua over the Mbeere North by-election, it appears the former Deputy President, who was impeached in October last year, has swallowed humble pie.
UDA has ceded ground to Mr Odinga’s ODM in the Kasipul and Ugunja constituencies. Similarly, ODM has agreed to back UDA candidates in the Malava and Banisa constituencies, as well as in the Baringo senatorial race.
President Ruto while in Ugunja last week announced that UDA and ODM had agreed to back one candidate in the constituency, which fell vacant after its MP, Opiyo Wandayi (ODM), was appointed Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum.
“You know there will be a by-election in this constituency. I appointed your MP to the Energy docket. We have agreed with ODM that UDA will not field a candidate here. We shall have one joint candidate supported by both ODM and UDA,” said President Ruto in Ugunja on 31 August 2025.
The decision has since threatened the ambitions of aspirants who had declared interest for the positions.
For instance, Mr Oyugi Dor, was hoping he would be the UDA candidate in Ugunja having lost to Mr Wandayi in the 2022 elections. He has been holding meetings across the constituency even as he cautiously waits for the party’s directives. UDA aspirants in Ugunja are also set to suffer similar fate unless they opt to run as independent candidates in the by-elections.
In the Magarini constituency by-election, ODM and UDA have both issued direct tickets to their respective candidates. The seat became vacant after the win of ODM’s Harrison Kombe in the 2022 election was nullified. ODM has since given Mr Kombe a direct ticket, while UDA has settled on Mr Stanley Karisa Kenga, who successfully challenged ODM’s win.
UDA National Elections Board chairman Anthony Mwaura told Daily Nation that they would try to reach a consensus in the constituency by prevailing upon one of the candidates to drop out.
He, however, appeared to suggest that it would be unfair to ask Mr Kenga to step down having moved all the way to the Supreme Court to have the election outcome nullified.
“The plan is to ensure that we win more than 80 per cent of the seats in the 23 electoral areas. UDA has aspirants in both Ugunja and Kasipul constituencies, but we will ask them to drop and support ODM candidates in those areas,” said Mr Mwaura.
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula.
In Malava, both ODM and Ford Kenya of National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula have agreed to back a UDA candidate.
UDA has since attracted the interest of Simon Chimuche, Rhyan Injendi Malulu, David Athman Ndakwa and Leonard Shimaka. The broad-based parties will further back a UDA candidate in Baringo County.
In the opposition camp, Democratic Action Party–Kenya (DAP-K) Secretary General Eseli Simiyu told Daily Nation that talks are ongoing to have some of the aspirants drop out of the race to avoid splitting their votes.
The late area MP Malulu Injendi was among seven MPs elected on ANC in the 2022 General Election. ANC has since folded to join Dr Ruto’s UDA.
In the 2022 polls, Mr Malulu garnered 22,891 votes on ANC, beating his closest competitor, Seth Panyako of UDA, who got 20,133 votes, ahead of Joab Manyasi of ODM with 11,983 votes.
In the upcoming by-election, Mr Panyako seeks to run on DAP-K while lawyer Edgar Busiega has sought the DCP ticket.
Mr Eseli said there are talks to have only one candidate for the opposition camp to avoid benefiting UDA’s candidate in the race. He said the opposition would use popularity rating surveys in deciding the best candidate for the seat.
“We are in talks to ensure we have one candidate, because we stand a risk of splitting our votes if all of them go to the ballot. What happened in Mbeere North is what we are also looking for in Malava,” said Mr Eseli.
“We are doing scientific polling and opinion polls because we don’t want people to feel they are being forced to step aside, but they should see the sense of making such a decision for the general good of the opposition,” he explained.
