Political aftermath of the BBI verdict

If the Court of Appeal could have allowed the appeal by President Kenyatta and his handshake partner Raila Odinga, it could have potentially expanded the number of Executive slots, which makes it easier for presidential aspirants to build wide coalitions.

President Kenyatta has been trying to bring together the former premier and the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) leaders — Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka, Amani National Congress Musalia Mudavadi, Ford-Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula and Kanu’s Gideon Moi — with the aim of approaching next year’s poll united.

It had emerged that at the centre of discussions between President Kenyatta and the former National Super Alliance (Nasa) members in the two meetings held in Mombasa was that with the BBI, they could use it in crafting pre-election pact that could be used in battling it out with Deputy President William Ruto.

Now that there are no slots to be shared among the leaders, political pundits argue that Mr Kenyatta’s political dream of uniting the opposition leaders has been complicated.

“Uhuru (President Kenyatta) has time to concentrate on his job and leave aspiring presidents to battle it out on their own. It is not in his interest openly to campaign for anyone,” said Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University-Africa (USIU).

Cabinet slots

ANC deputy party leader Ayub Savula told the Sunday Nation that now that there are no extra seats to be shared, they will use available Cabinet slots to craft their alliance arguing that OKA will come up with a power-sharing formula.

“OKA was not fully dependent on the BBI to build a coalition, it is the ODM team and they have failed. For us, we are going to share government equally and coalition is all about sharing government,” said Mr Savula.

Mount Kenya has flipped into a battlefield region that could swing the 2022 State House bid for any serious presidential contender.

With President Kenyatta leaving office in 2022, the region has not fronted any ‘serious’ candidate like in the past to succeed the Head of State. It is proving to be a crucial region for DP Ruto, former Prime Minister, Mr Musyoka and the ANC boss. BBI had goodies which the President was set to use in controlling his political bedrock.

The eight counties of Mount Kenya – Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu have 4.1 million votes, which was the Jubilee’s catalyst to State House and the DP and his political nemesis have intensified inroads in the region to succeed Mr Kenyatta.

In the BBI, the region was set to get 11 additional constituencies - Kiambu (6), Meru (2), Embu (1), Kirinyaga (1) and Murang'a (1), what was perceived as additional resources to the grassroots level.

With these constituencies, President Kenyatta was expected to lock out his estranged deputy and deliver the votes to the coalition he was trying to craft ahead of 2022.

While giving out land title deeds at the Coast last month, the Head of State said BBI would ensure devolution of more resources to the counties and fair representation in parliament but with the end of the BBI, analysts say that it will be an uphill task in Mr Kenyatta to consolidate his political bastion of Central.

Devolution

Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu said with the end to BBI, their expectations have to be redefined even as allies of the DP from the region say that their focus is always about economy.

“To get the Mt Kenya vote one must now guarantee that their government will deliver what BBI was meant to deliver to us: one man, one vote, one shilling, devolution of more resources and presence in government,” Mr Wambugu, a firebrand of critic of DP Ruto, told the Sunday Nation.

“The key players in succession politics would all have used an expanded executive in the BBI arrangement as a bargaining chip. Every one of them is a loser in this ruling. That the BBI is no longer there actually deprives President Kenyatta of what would have been a major tool of shaping his role in the succession,” argued Prof Ken Oluoch, Head of Political Science department at Moi University.

Constitutional lawyer Bobby Mkangi, who was a member of the Committee of Experts that drafted the 2010 constitution, argues that BBI was a winning strategy for Mr Kenyatta, the former Prime Minister and OKA leaders.

“BBI was thought to have advantage for Raila than Ruto who was on the periphery from the onset,” he said.

Javas Bigambo, a political analyst, thinks that without BBI referendum, the Head of State will not find it easy to influence his succession and there is likelihood of finding himself between a rock and a hard place.

“Without the BBI proposed changes, he will find himself in a Mwai Kibaki situation, where he clandestinely influences State resources for his preferred candidates, or find himself in a Mzee Moi situation where he openly endorses a candidate and await the political consequences,” explains Mr Bigambo.

In 2017, Nasa principals had agreed to share Cabinet and other government positions had they won the General Election.

The first 11 Cabinet slots were to be shared two each, but the former Prime Minister allowed three at this first stage.

On these, the principals were given a free hand to name their own people to the 22-man Cabinet.

In the agreement, ODM, which had produced the presidential candidate, was going to automatically also get the Finance, Defence, and Education dockets with some of Kenya’s most influential ministries.

Mr Musyoka’s Wiper, besides getting the deputy president slot, was also entitled to the ministries of Foreign Affairs and Transport dockets.

The ANC of Mr Mudavadi, who was to be the Premier Cabinet Secretary in-charge of coordination of government, was to get the Interior and Agriculture dockets.

Ford-Kenya, led by Mr Wetang’ula was to get the Infrastructure and Energy dockets with the Bungoma senator being named deputy premier CS in-charge of economic affairs. Chama Cha Mashinani, led by former Bomet governor Isaac Ruto, was to be named deputy premier CS in-charge of governance and social sector protection and was to man the Devolution and Health ministries.

Mr Odinga, who had identified himself with the BBI, has said he will not challenge the judgment in the Supreme Court as his allies say they will use the 2017 formula in crafting their next political move.

According to Suna East Junet Mohamed, who was the co-chair of the BBI secretariat, they came up with extra seats not necessarily for power-sharing but achieving inclusiveness noting that ODM was prepared for any eventuality.

Conducive environment

“What we were looking at was to create a conducive environment, an inclusive government. When Jubilee came to power in 2013 and 2017, many parts of the country felt excluded and saw it as a duopoly,” said Mr Mohammed.

“We had prepared for both scenarios – current situation and that of an expanded Executive. Now that this is not there, we will go back to our factory setting of having a President and a deputy. Already I know who our deputy president will be, we are set to go because we have a war to win come August 2022,” he added.

Mr Mohamed said the formula they are set to use would accommodate everyone and all the parties would be satisfied with it.

“When we were in Nasa, everybody was comfortable – one was a president and the other was running mate, the rest were okay. We will go back to how we did it in 2017,” he said.

Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo, who is also Wiper vice-chairman, told the Sunday Nation that OKA is for inclusive government without necessarily creating executive positions adding that they were prepared after the High Court ruling in May.

“None of us had any illusions that BBI would go forward after the High Court ruling and the deadline of 12 months to elections in Article 89. There was no plan to distribute five posts in OKA. I have not participated in such discussions. The alliance is on an all-inclusive government that does not necessarily create executive positions,” he said.

DP Ruto’s lieutenants, who had opposed the constitutional amendments, also argue that were it to pass, the BBI would have been a welcome addition to their campaign matrix, which has recently seen divisions as affiliate parties demand to retain their own identity even as they back the DP for the top job.

“BBI was a good document for politicians because it creates posts for them, but bad for wananchi. This is because it expands the Executive and Parliament, making Kenya pay billions more per annum,” Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata said in an interview yesterday adding that the ruling has vindicated their position from the onset.

Former Sports CS Rashid Echesa said it is too early to rule out western from demanding a running mate position in the hustler movement arguing that if they manage to solidify it behind the DP, they will have high stakes for the position.

Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali however disclosed that their numbers might keep them out of the running mate matrix.