On July 20, 2021, Central Organisation of Trade Unions (Cotu) Secretary-General Francis Atwoli penned a lengthy letter to the feuding partners of the National Super Alliance – Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula – and Kanu party leader Gideon Moi, imploring them to swallow their pride and team up ahead of the following year’s polls or risk political oblivion.
“If one of you will not have taken over the political leadership of this country, then the coming five years will witness all of you being fought over fiercely and your influence reduced to nothing because you are all men of very strong influence in our country and for whoever will be in power to survive, you will remain their targets,” he cautioned in the hard-hitting letter titled “Appeal for you to come together in the looming political dispensation”.
Mudavadi and Wetangula, who instead bolted out of that arrangement, are today serving as Prime Cabinet Secretary and Speaker of the National Assembly respectively, while Odinga, Musyoka, Moi and former President Uhuru Kenyatta – who openly and solidly supported Raila’s presidential bid last year – are slugging it out from the opposition corner.
Indeed, the veteran unionist’s prophecy may have come to pass, if lamentations by allies of the ODM leader, Raila, and his Wiper counterpart, Musyoka, are anything to go by. Kenyatta, the presumed financial sponsor of Odinga’s campaign, is on the receiving end particularly, with President William Ruto’s administration tightening the noose around his neck over alleged non-payment of taxes by members of the larger Kenyatta family.
On Monday, for instance, the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP) ratified changes by the Jubilee Party’s National Executive Committee that kicked out Kenyatta-leaning officials, Vice-Chair David Murathe, Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni and National Treasurer Kagwe Gichohi.
Although the controversial move by the ORPP is believably independent of the President’s influence, it demonstrates Kenyatta’s inevitable diminishing sway over and control of government entities. The situation is a product of what critics have described as the former President’s rather casual – if not lacklustre – approach to the August presidential poll, in which he had a preferred successor.
While the Kenyatta-Odinga axis “toyed around” with the power in their possession, Ruto approached the poll as one would the proverbial oasis – starved of water and keen to maximise on the little access accorded to him. To this day, supporters of the Odinga-led Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya outfit have yet to comprehend how the top seat slipped through their fingers.
Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, who supported Odinga’s bid, is among those still astounded by the outcome of the presidential poll. Without apportioning blame, the vocal politician concedes that Ruto’s manouevres leading to his victory amounted to “pure political brilliance”.
The vocal politician points out, however, that running a government successfully requires a little more than just political brilliance. And last week, five months after losing out in the presidential poll, the former President and his ‘brother’, the former Prime Minister, were seen holding hands in public in the Nyanza region, sending tongues wagging.
The two addressed rallies in Luanda market and Kisumu town in Vihiga and Kisumu counties after attending the burial of former Education Cabinet Secretary Prof George Magoha. How power slipped through the fingers of the two influential political scions of founding fathers Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Odinga remains a major riddle to this day.
And after the former President publicly maintained that Odinga was his party and political boss, questions abound about the pair’s political plot, with Ruto’s backers dismissing them as “no longer consequential”. Amukowa Anangwe, a professor of Political Science, contends that the two ‘brothers’ are still in denial following the events of last August, and that reality has not yet sank that they actually lost power to Ruto.
“They may be taking long to come to terms with the fact that they both lost the opportunity to retain power due to their own incompetence to guide the so-called Deep State to deliver victory by hook or crook.” Anangwe, a cabinet minister in the government of former President Daniel arap Moi, was part of Ruto’s campaign think-tank.
He argues that the more Odinga and Kenyatta continue with the political rallies to put pressure on Ruto’s government, the more support they will lose, and the stronger the rationale and motivation for the President to annihilate them politically in order to minimise any threat they may pose before the next electoral contest in 2027. Anangwe predicts that Uhuru’s political future “is going to be increasingly dire and irreversible after losing his clout as the Mt Kenya kingpin to the Ruto/Rigathi axis”.
Having lost power to a fierce rival despite their having been in a very strategic position, where Kenyatta enjoyed unlimited access to apparatus and instruments of power, one wonders how the ‘brothers’ can effectively influence political events in their favour from the outside. In fact, one of the biggest difficulties the pair is bound to face is the aspect of believability among allies and supporters, which partly explains the flow of defections towards Ruto’s corner.
Some of the defectors are caving in to the Kenyan political culture of ‘working with the President’ in order to access goodies from the new government, including appointments.
For Atwoli, an erstwhile harsh critic of President Ruto’s who has since made a major political about-turn, his decision to back the government of the day is persuaded by what he considers “political reality of the moment”.
Last Tuesday, while leading a team of union officials to State House, the Cotu boss said they had no option but to surrender to Ruto.
“We had the government, the so-called Deep State, the influence and powers of the incumbency and all the money, yet we lost. Since we cannot now upset the status quo, the prudent thing to do is join you.” The August 9 poll debacle notwithstanding, the political ‘brothers’ remain united – a resolve that is unsettling to the big boys in the Ruto administration.
Although out of government, Uhuru has financial muscle and enjoys international connections and goodwill from relatively influential partners, which explains the jitters in government and claims that Kenyatta is funding the ongoing opposition rallies, dubbed ‘The People’s Public Barazas’.
On his part, Odinga is in familiar territory as an agitator of the people’s rights. He honed his political career from this side of the political divide and pundits believe he could pose a major threat to a Ruto administration that is plagued with myriad challenges, including the rising cost of living. Political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi, best cap[1]tures this in a recent tweet addressed to the President:
“Dear Ruto, you asked for Opposition, you got it. What is the problem now? Raila in crisis is like a fish in water. He will make this country ungovernable. Moi climbed down, Kibaki climbed down, and Uhuru climbed down. Bark less, bite in silence.”And because President Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza brigade have the more difficult task of executing service delivering, the opposition has an upper hand in the emerging battle.
As Wambugu rightly observes, criticising the government is much easier than defending government policies and actions. It is precisely for these reasons that Ruto overran Odinga and Kenyatta at the ballot and why he now appears to be struggling to hold onto his supporters.
The former Nyeri Town MP predicts that, if economic hardships persist or escalate over the next five years amid poor governance, then the next election will be a very difficult one for President Ruto to crack.
Noting that the Presidency is a hot seat, Wambugu opines that being at the helm of government and running its affairs requires a strategic balancing of all interests, including of those within and outside the ruling political outfit.
Only time will tell, he says, whether or not Ruto has the extra ingredient needed to hold the country together. Although the relationship between the fathers of the political ‘brothers’ ended badly – with the senior Kenyatta whittling away the powers of his deputy and forcing him to resign, then later condemning him to detention – Jomo and Jaramogi started off on a very friendly note.
At the turn of Independence, Jaramogi refused to be clandestinely installed as Prime Minister by the British colonial government, insisting that his political leader was Jomo Kenyatta. He went on to spearhead de[1]mands for Jomo’s release from prison ahead of Independence in 1963. And for his gesture of comradeship, Jomo appointed Jaramogi as his Vice-President.
In Jaramogi, Jomo found a reliable ally in the independence party, Kanu, and an ardent fixer of the ‘Majimbo’ (regional system of government) threat. Jomo and Jar[1]amogi were convinced that the Majimbo system, which was propelled by the rival Ken[1]ya African Democratic Union party, was the worst system of government. However, after 17 months of bitter factional strife, Jomo and Jaramogi fell out in March 1966 in circumstances precipitated by a series of rigged Kanu elections.
The situation culminated in Jaramogi’s demotion at the ruling party’s Limuru Conference with the introduc[1]tion of five party V-P positions across the country. The political dalliance of the younger Ken[1]yatta and Odinga was partly meant to cure this historical political rivalry that has persistently plagued the country, particularly members of the Kikuyu and Luo communities.
Opinion is divided, however, on whether the latest efforts to stage political rallies across the country are geared towards achieving the goal of national cohesion or gaining political relevance and redeeming the fading clout of the two ‘brothers’.
