The growing influence of ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna in the political arena has left key players scratching their heads over how to handle him, with only 15 months to the August 2027 General Election.
The latest poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (Tifa) identifies the MP as one of the figures to watch in an ever-changing political landscape.
In the opposition camp, a Kalonzo Musyoka–Fred Matiang’i ticket has emerged as the most preferred lineup among supporters in the same study.
Tifa also indicates that President William Ruto faces an uphill task in his bid for re-election, as a united opposition could easily defeat him.
Even if the opposition remains fragmented, it could still deny him the constitutional requirement of securing 50 per cent plus one vote needed for a first-round victory.
Speaking during the release of the poll findings, Tifa Chief Executive Officer Tom Wolf said many opposition supporters prefer Kalonzo as presidential candidate, with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as his running mate.
The Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket, which has also been considered by opposition supporters, emerged as another strong option with 28 per cent support.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka addresses the media at SKM Command Centre in Nairobi on December 30, 2025.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
Mr Musyoka, who also leads the Wiper Democratic Movement, has recently been traversing his Ukambani political base alongside Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, with some of their joint appearances interpreted as tacit endorsements.
On March 30, during a joint opposition tour of Ukambani, Mr Gachagua urged the Kamba community to register more than four million votes to propel Mr Musyoka to State House in 2027.
The Nairobi Senator has generated significant interest among younger voters, with what some perceive as political persecution within ODM earning him public sympathy.
He has also made political inroads in Western Kenya, with some supporters urging him to contest the presidency in 2027.
Other proposed opposition combinations received less support. A Rigathi Gachagua-Kalonzo ticket polled 25 per cent, while a Kalonzo-Martha Karua pairing attracted only four per cent support.
Interestingly, many of President Ruto’s supporters would prefer him to face a Kalonzo–Sifuna ticket, which drew 19 per cent among them, rather than a Kalonzo–Matiang’i lineup, which received 18 per cent.
Even as the opposition struggles to unite, President Ruto is far from secure. According to Tifa, all indicators suggest that a first-round victory may be out of reach.
Although the President’s approval rating has improved to 24 per cent, up from 19 per cent in November 2025 when the last survey was conducted, a united opposition would still defeat him in the first round.
If President William Ruto was looking for yet another reason to retain Prof Kithure Kindiki as his principal running mate at the next polls, then the Tifa poll may have handed him one.
President William Ruto fields questions from the media at Sagana State Lodge, Nyeri County on March 31, 2025.
Photo credit: PCS
Prof Kindiki enjoys overwhelming support, polling 59 per cent, far ahead of his closest challenger, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, who trails at a distant 12 percent.
ODM leader Dr Oburu Oginga garnered a mere three percent, while Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho received just one percent support.
The poll findings are likely to strengthen Prof Kindiki’s bargaining power within Kenya Kwanza, especially at a time when succession calculations and regional voting blocs are beginning to shape political alignments ahead of the next General Election.
Mr Musyoka leads opposition presidential hopefuls with 19 per cent support, followed by Dr Matiang’i at 14 per cent, while Mr Sifuna commands 10 per cent. Mr Musyoka’s popularity has dropped from 25 per cent, while Dr Matiang’i’s support has also declined.
“This may be due to the emergence of Mr Sifuna as the face of the Linda Mwananchi movement, which appears to have drawn support away from both leaders. Remember, Dr Matiang’i also generated political excitement when he returned to active politics, but that may have subsided now that he has become a more permanent presence in the political arena,” said Mr Wolf.
Within ODM, the Linda Mwananchi faction is significantly more popular among party supporters than the Linda Ground faction led by Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga.
Among those who support the broad-based government, its perceived promotion of national stability and unity, thereby reducing ethnic tensions, is the most commonly cited reason. On the negative side, many believe that certain political leaders, rather than ordinary citizens, are its primary beneficiaries.
In terms of political party popularity, ODM has overtaken UDA, with the Orange party polling 18 per cent compared to the ruling party’s 17 per cent.
Mr Gachagua’s DCP follows closely at 16 per cent, while Jubilee, Wiper, and the Democratic Party (DP) have garnered 11 per cent, eight per cent, and one per cent, respectively.
UDA continues to dominate in North Eastern Kenya (39 per cent) and the Central Rift (30 per cent), while DCP is the party to beat in Mount Kenya, where it enjoys 31 per cent support.
