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Poll: Sifuna overtakes Kalonzo for first time, Gachagua supporters want him to be kingmaker
According to a TIFA poll, President William Ruto remains the most preferred presidential candidate with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna coming second and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka third.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has overtaken Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in presidential popularity for the first time, according to a new opinion poll that captures a rapidly shifting Opposition landscape less than a year before the next General Election.
TIFA's second national survey of 2026, conducted between June 13 and 22 and released today, shows Sifuna polling at 15 percent, edging past Kalonzo, who has slipped to 13 percent. Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Fred Matiang'i sits just above Kalonzo at 14 percent, while Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua trails at 7 percent and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino at 2 percent. President William Ruto remains the most preferred candidate overall, at 24 percent.
The shift marks a dramatic reversal of fortunes among Opposition contenders. Sifuna's rating has jumped from 10 to 15 percent in two months, and has climbed from virtually no support in 2025 to become one of the leading Opposition figures within a year.
"Although Opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among Opposition figures...positioning him among the leading contenders," the pollster said.
Sifuna also commands strong backing within his own party, with 44 percent of ODM supporters favouring him as the party's flagbearer, well ahead of Ruto's 20 percent among the same group.
Matiang'i losing ground
Jubilee Party Deputy Leader Fred Matiang'i.
By contrast, other contenders have lost ground. Matiang'i, once the frontrunner, has fallen sharply from 32 percent in May 2025 to 14 percent in June 2026. Kalonzo, who stood at 25 percent in November 2025, has now dropped to 13 percent. Babu Owino's support has also declined, from 8 percent last November to just 2 percent — a drop TIFA suggests may reflect supporters switching allegiance to Sifuna.
Gachagua's numbers have dipped slightly too, a trend the pollster links to his unsuccessful High Court challenge against his impeachment and removal as Deputy President, despite his stated intention to appeal.
Ruto's lead, though still commanding, comes with a caveat: his 24 percent support represents only about a quarter of Kenyans — not necessarily registered or likely voters — suggesting the opposition retains considerable room to consolidate support ahead of next year's polls.
Gachagua's options
DCP Party leader Rigathi Gachagua addressing journalists in Nairobi on July 10, 2026.
The survey also examined what Opposition-leaning voters want from Gachagua, given uncertainty over his legal eligibility to stand. More than 62 per cent said he should support the strongest Opposition candidate rather than lead the ticket himself, compared with just 14 percent who want him to head the Opposition bid if cleared to run.
If courts bar him from standing, 29 percent believe he should back another Opposition candidate; even if cleared to contest, 33 percent still feel he should defer to someone else. Only 5 percent believe Ruto is unbeatable regardless of Gachagua's decision, while 19 percent remain unsure.
"The findings indicate that anti-Ruto voters are primarily focused on maximising the Opposition's chances of victory, regardless of who heads the coalition," TIFA said.
Support for Linda Mwananchi
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna joins supporters during the Linda Mwananchi Women Empowerment Programme at Monarch Hotel in Mosocho, Kisii County, on July 3, 2026.
Within ODM, the poll also found supporters consolidating behind Sifuna's "Linda Mwananchi", which rose from 73 percent to 74 percent support among party members, while the rival "Linda Ground" position continued to lose ground, falling from 24 percent to 20 percent. Overall, ODM's party support grew from 16 percent in May to 20 percent in June, while UDA stagnated at 17 percent and DCP, Wiper, DAP-Kenya and Ford Kenya all recorded declines.
Broader party support for both ODM and UDA has fallen significantly since the 2022 General Election, with DCP emerging as a growing challenger and nearly a third of voters still undecided.
The poll further found that opposition to the Broad-Based Government (BBG) — the de facto coalition between UDA and ODM — remains nearly twice as high as support for it, at 52 percent versus 30 percent, with 15 percent expressing no opinion and 4 percent unaware of the arrangement. Support for the BBG has held steady at 30 percent since May, a level TIFA says reflects an ongoing split within ODM over whether to back Ruto's re-election.
That split has continued to widen. The late Raila Odinga's elder brother, Oburu, has called for the dissident "Linda Mwananchi" faction — led by Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi — to leave the party altogether, an option its leaders have themselves begun to hint at. The pressure has intensified since Sifuna was replaced as the Senate's Deputy Minority Whip by Eddy Oketch, a vocal BBG supporter.
Regionally, support for broad-based has risen in Central Rift, Coast and Lower Eastern, but declined in Northern, Nyanza and Mt Kenya. Compared with November last year, support has dropped substantially in nearly every region except Coast, with the steepest falls recorded in Western (down 33 points, from 62 percent to 29 percent) and Nyanza (down 24 points, from 59 percent to 35 percent).
Adding to the uncertainty, ODM's mainstream leadership has grown increasingly insistent that the party be given the Deputy President slot on the UDA ticket — a demand that sits uneasily with supporters of the current Deputy President, Prof Kithure Kindiki.
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