President William Ruto’s relentless efforts to win the support of Azimio MPs have painted the picture of a man on a two-pronged mission; to weaken the opposition and to secure an absolute majority in Parliament.
The State House visit by Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Jubilee MPs early this week was a step towards achieving the twin goals.
The absence of key ODM and Jubilee lawmakers in the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition nationwide public rallies is a psychological blow to opposition leader Raila Odinga , who has to contend with the politically damaging reality of losing support from his backyard.
As the National Assembly resumes sittings next week after a long recess, President Ruto will be counting on the recruited opposition MPs to shore up numbers and push through his legislative agenda.
“We all resolved to work with the government for the development inside and outside Parliament. It is for peace, unity and tranquillity,” Eldas MP Adan Keynan, who was part of the Jubilee delegation to State House, Nairobi, said.
“We will not support the rallies because elections are over and life must continue. We want to allow the President and his government to work for Kenyans.”
The President has set his eyes on securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly and Senate to guarantee an easy time passing his envisaged Constitutional amendments.
Interviews with senior figures in the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance as well as the Azimio camp have revealed that in the two meetings at State House, Dr Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua reached a pact with the nine ODM lawmakers and about 30 Jubilee MPs that they would not be party to the ongoing Azimio protest rallies.
President Ruto told the Azimio MPs that they would be funded to initiate projects in their constituencies if they do not attend the Azimio meetings.
They were told that their development requests would be funded as long as they support the government in Parliament.
Those who have applied to be incorporated in lucrative committees in Parliament would have their requests granted.
Nakuru West MP Samuel Arama told the Saturday Nation that despite being in the opposition, the people he represents want development, not taking part in protest marches and questioning the legitimacy of those in power.
A majority in Parliament is important for a party – or a coalition – in power as it gives the President an easy time to make legal changes. Such a majority gives the President and his allies powers to approve or reject proposals on constitutional changes, as well as approving or rejecting a referendum.
The importance of an absolute majority was demonstrated in the administration of President Kenyatta, which pushed through both Houses of Parliament a bill to amend the Constitution to expand the Executive under the Building Bridges Initiate (BBI).
The effort was derailed by the Supreme Court, which declared the bill unconstitutional.
The Kenya Kwanza Alliance has 179 MPs in the National Assembly against Azimio la Umoja One Kenya’s 157.
Winning over 10 of the 12 independent MPs, and with 30 Jubilee MPs and nine ODM lawmakers having pledged their loyalty to the government, the possibility of bridging the 44-member gap to a two-thirds majority (233 of the 349 MPs) is moving closer to reality.
Any president struggling with numbers in Parliament is at risk of having his legislative and budgetary proposals constantly thrown out or frustrated. In the worst-case scenario, the president may be impeached.
Jubilee was just 32 MPs shy of the absolute majority in the 12th Parliament, a move that gave President Uhuru Kenyatta easy time to implement his polices.
The numbers reduced significantly after a fallout with his deputy Ruto, who moved away with a big number of lawmakers.
University of Nairobi lecturer Samuel Mbutu says President Ruto is well aware of parliamentary political duels.
“He is a political schemer. The President knows that some of government agenda such as constitutional changes will require a two thirds majority. He has to try and get the two thirds by all means so that he is able to do whatever he wants without a referendum or being slowed down by the opposition before the 2027 General Election election,” Dr Mbutu said.
“It is a long and wide scheme, a perfect case of strategic thinking on the President’s side. No Wonder the Azimio leader is cracking hard on MPs defying his party position.”
Already, Jubilee MPs have implemented what they promised the President on Wednesday.
They vowed to do away with hardliners in the former ruling party so as to work with government in and out of Parliament.
They had done so yesterday, by settling on East African Legislative Assembly MP Kanini Kega and Dr Keynan to replace the pair. They also want Jubilee to join the Kenya Kwanza alliance officially.
“Kioni has been attending Azimio protest meetings without our blessings. We had to remove him from office in order to work with the ruling party and the President,” Mr Arama said.
In what appears to be a further strategy to isolate Mr Odinga, Dr Ruto has tasked Mr Gachagua to convene another meeting with the nine ODM lawmakers together with relevant Cabinet Secretaries on Wednesday to develop a framework on how to implement the promises he made to Nyanza residents.
