Prospects of a Ruto presidency light up his Rift Valley base
Mzee James Kimaiyo, 75, from Sugoi in Uasin Gishu County during an interview on July 3, 2022.
What you need to know:
- Dr Ruto enjoys a cult-like following and his passionate supporters believe his boss Kenyatta has badly mistreated him despite his role in propelling the Jubilee team to power in 2013.
- This time round, he has galvanised the Kenya Kwanza Alliance and seems to be closing in on claiming the entire Rift Valley.
- Mr Ruto has demonstrated the ability to withstand pressure. When his trusted followers were hounded out of every office after the “handshake”, he was left with a narrow road to manoeuvre.
From the lush and expansive tea plantations of Nandi Hills to the stunning scenery of West Pokot, the North Rift is boiling with enthusiasm in support of Deputy President William Ruto, the leader of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
A volcano is rumbling, a boil is festering, and a noisy battle is raging as DP Ruto takes on his political nemesis Raila Odinga, the ODM supremo who is leading the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, in a tense two-horse Uhuru succession race.
The rich agricultural region is heavy with expectations. Both the young and old have summoned the spirit of Orkoiyot in one of Kenya’s most brutal political battles.
Dr Ruto, a thoroughbred politician, has bred a revolution that has moved power from Kabarak in Nakuru to the sleepy Sugoi village in Turbo, where he regularly plots his political manoeuvers.
To his followers, he is a virtually omniscient political chess master who plots his course many moves in advance.
His gift of the gab and excellent grassroots mobilisation skills keep him miles ahead of the pack.
He has overshadowed Senator Gideon Moi, the son of the second President, who is now clutching at rotten powdery straws that may not be of much help.
Unlike in 2017, when the cockerel party crowed all over Baringo and West Pokot, the tide seems to be turning. An ever-swelling wave of bright yellow blitz has surrounded the Kanu party leader and his possibilities are growing thinner by the day.
Dr Ruto enjoys a cult-like following. His passionate supporters believe his boss has badly mistreated him despite his role in propelling the Jubilee team to power in 2013.
Jubilee divorce
The promise that President Uhuru Kenyatta gave him when the two were like conjoined twins seems to have vanished like a sweet dream at the moment of waking up.
After the March 2018 “handshake”, a glorious union became bondage in hell as the heir to the throne became the slave.
The DP was baffled and infuriated. In both 2013 and 2017, he played second fiddle to Mr Kenyatta.
This time round, he has galvanised the Kenya Kwanza Alliance and seems to be closing in on claiming the entire Rift Valley.
Deputy President William Ruto addresses a crowd of his coalition's supporters during a roadside rally at Ruiru town on July 15, 2022.
Two decades after Mr Odinga rallied the opposition to end President Daniel arap Moi’s 24-year grip on power with the National Rainbow Coalition, a great wave of nostalgia is sweeping through the region.
“With Moi, life was good, and money was in circulation. We had plenty of food and schoolchildren had free milk. That’s all gone. As a peasant’s son, Ruto represents the possibility of any Kenyan rising to the presidency. I saw him as he attended Wareng Secondary School,” recalls James Kimaiyo, 77, a resident of Sugoi village in Uasin Gishu.
“He lived with another student near the Salvation Army Church in Eldoret. I regularly gave them milk because they were my neighbours.”
A towering Kalenjin elder with a magnetic memory and a deep baritone, Kimaiyo has participated in all elections since the colonial administration.
He takes pride in the fact that he indirectly raised Ruto when the younger man was a struggling student from a poor family.
“He lived in a swampy area; it was uninhabitable. But despite the odds, he did well in school and here he is, going for the presidency. He is a fighter who will turn around our economy,” adds Kimaiyo.
In the volatile Kerio Valley in Elgeyo-Marakwet, where bandits loom larger than the government and the angel of death seems to have camped in the hills, there’s a general feeling of resentment towards authorities.
Disappointed locals
The breathtaking landscape across the county is deceptive; it’s a valley of death and dry bones, where human life is deemed cheaper than a calf’s.
It’s a home of frightened people losing the zest of longevity. Hunger pangs and poverty parallel nostalgic memories of when the fields brought forth plenty of food and a steady source of income to thousands of residents before cattle rustlers turned their lives upside-down.
“Uhuru has let us down; our people are dying but the government is doing nothing about it. We hope Ruto will make things better,” says Tomas Komen, 50, a father of three in Kesonik village, Marakwet East.
Raising his hands in the universal gesture of desperation, he adds: “The constant raids from our neighbours stopped us from tilling our land.
The cost of living is high. We are saddened that the government, with all its security apparatus, could not restore order during the planting season.”
In Arror Ward, where more than 100 rustlers from a neighbouring community laid siege on a village in January before driving away 1,000 animals, the residents are, understandably, hostile to the government.
“Insecurity is a major problem. We won’t vote for a government ‘project’ who will continue implementing Uhuru’s failed policies. He doesn’t look at us as Kenyans who must be protected,” laments Maureen Kipchumba, 38, a mother of three in Arror trading centre, presumably referring to Mr Odinga.
“They (rustlers) have taken all our animals; they attack our farmers, so what shall we do? Starve to death? There was no planting this season. The police came and disarmed reservists, who were better at handling bandits, but left the other side with guns,” she laments.
In Nandi County, the youth have vowed to mobilise the old and the ill to polling booths. Such is the determination of the DP’s foot soldiers. “I will vote ‘six-piece’.
This is Kenya Kwanza inside-out. We are tired of the Uhuru government, and I don’t think by voting for his ‘project’ things will improve,” offers Joan Jelimo, 25, a trader in Kapsabet town.
“Business is not doing well because prices have gone up. We believe Ruto will put in place sound policies with his bottom-up model that will, eventually, uplift our lives,” she adds.
Bottom-up model
According to its proponents, the bottom-up economic model primarily focuses on dispersing economic opportunities and dignifying the majority poor.
It seeks to ensure equity, inclusivity, social justice and fair play in socio-economic issues. In the “Hustler Fund”, the DP has pledged to set aside a Sh50 billion kitty for the youth, women and small-scale traders.
“We’ll have funds to invest in our businesses, which will lift many out of poverty. The other camp has proposed to give us Sh6,000 but we don’t need hand-outs; we need capital,” says Jane Jeptoo, 50, a mother of three in Mugunya village, Emgwen Constituency.
In Baringo, residents say it is time for leadership to move to other families.
“We cannot follow the Mois forever. Gideon has done nothing for us. From the day he was elected in 2017, we only saw him again when he came to present his papers to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. He doesn’t even attend funerals of victims of cattle rustling. He’s taken us for granted,” says Brigid Kelonyo, 38, a mother of four and the Kabarnet Town market chairlady.
“Ruto should take the reins. Gideon has let his people down. He doesn’t even attend funerals of victims of cattle rustling. He’s taken us for granted. We want the Hustler Fund to boost our small businesses and improve livelihoods. We’ve had enough of the Mois,” she roars.
The women decry the high cost of living and wonder how Mr Odinga will turn around the economy after supporting President Kenyatta’s agenda for the past four years.
“I have five children; one is an engineer, another an accountant, and two are drivers, but they are all jobless. I paid for their education through a grocery business, which was back when money was in circulation. I couldn’t have done that with this economy,” offers Rael Chelagat, a mother of five in Salawa village, Baringo Central.
In Eldama Ravine, the largest constituency in the county, farmers lament the high cost of inputs such as seeds and fertiliser, while traders decry the poor business environment that has led to the collapse of several small-scale organisations.
“Uhuru has destroyed the economy; he should just finish and go. The good times are gone. We are suffering. This is not what we had anticipated when we voted in 2017,” says Leah Kiptoo, 42, a mother of five in Saw Mill village.
It’s not, however, all doom and gloom for the Azimio camp in Baringo. Mr Odinga, 77, and Mr Moi, 58, enjoy the support of many residents of Marigat township, Baringo South Constituency.
Residents still feel safer and better under a Moi and have vowed to stick with the “last-born” – as they call him – because he’s the only leader in the region with a big say in national politics. “We are not okay with Ruto because he might not win. We want to continue enjoying the benefits of being in government,” says Shadrack Lesambicha, 46, from the Ilchamus community in Ng’ambo village.
“There’s no doubt Baba (Odinga) will prevail. We shall all rally behind him. We have nothing against Ruto but we don’t think it’s his time to lead,” adds Joan Limo, 48, a businesswoman in Yatoi village.
In West Pokot, the home of the diminutive marathon legend Tegla Loroupe and the original site of the “Kapenguria Six”, conflict over control of and access to natural resources among pastoralists is typical.
Lying northeast of Kitale, with an urban population of about 15,000, this is where Kenya’s founding fathers were detained in 1952, when the British colonial administration declared a State of Emergency.
At Kapenguria Museum, 412km northwest of Nairobi, visitors can breathe the air in the cells that confined independence heroes Jomo Kenyatta, Kung’u Karumba, Fred Kubai, Paul Ngei, Bildad Kaggia and Ramogi Achieng Oneko.
Now a bustling town, opinion is divided among traders on who between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga has better economic policies for farmers, pastoralists and business people.
The recarpeting of the Kitale-Lodwar highway through the busy Makutano town has brought good tidings for the business community.
“Ruto has the best manifesto for the ‘small’ man because it promises to build the economy from the bottom of the pyramid,” observes Christine Krop, 36, a mother of two and a spare parts dealer in Kapenguria.
“All was well with the Jubilee administration until the ‘handshake’ was introduced. We are looking forward to a government that will take care of the interest of mwananchi, not the fat cats in Nairobi,” she adds.
Sammy Pchantui, 42, a boda boda operator in Makutano town, has pegged his hopes on the “hustler fund” that the DP has been hawking across the nation, which seems to have resonated quite well with traders.
“We want the Kenya Kwanza government (should it win) to fix the roads and open up the region to the rest of the country. The funds Ruto has promised to set aside will boost many businesses,” offers Pchantui.
UDA supporters during a rally led by Deputy President William Ruto in Nairobi on June 4, 2022.
In 2017, West Pokot Governor John Lonyangapuo and Senator Samuel Poghisio were elected on the Kanu ticket but all indications are that Dr Ruto will bag a sizable number of votes next month.
Oil county
The scenario is somewhat different in Turkana, where Mr Odinga is hugely popular with nomadic pastoralists.
The county grabbed international headlines in 2012 when the British prospecting firm Tullow Oil said the southern part had 2.85 billion barrels of oil.
Most of it, however, remains inaccessible for commercial exploitation due to limitations in extraction technology.
Tullow is yet to develop the field for full-scale production due to unfavourable global oil prices, approval delays for land and water rights and Covid-19 disruptions.
But the petroleum activities came with good roads and social amenities.
Fuel stations, transport services, accommodation facilities, mobile money transfer services and banks have changed the face of Turkana.
The once-valueless scrubland attracted investors, who rushed to occupy land along the Kapenguria–Lodwar highway, dotting the region with malls, shops, hotels and hangout joints. Great things happened for risk-takers, and millionaires sprang up like wild mushrooms.
“We expected a boom when oil was discovered but those who benefitted are barely countable, even though we aren’t yet in full-scale production. The little the firm paid the county government for communal land did not get to the locals. It was all taken by politically connected individuals,” charges John Baraka, 48, an extractives industry activist in Lokichar town.
“Most of our people live in kraals in abject poverty because the politicians don’t care about them. You’ll see modern buildings in Lodwar but the people surrounding the oil fields cannot feed themselves. It’s a shame,” he adds.
Jackson Ekaru, a local opinion leader, blames the “resource curse” on selfish leaders out to enrich themselves and their families.
“We want Mr Odinga to take over next month and help our people to get the best out of their mineral resources. The current leadership has given us a raw deal. We don’t believe Dr Ruto is the right man to protect our oil,” offers Ekaru.
“This is a Baba base. We have always voted for him and nothing will change this year. We shall push for the implementation of the 70:25:05 revenue sharing ratio when it gets to full production,” he adds.
The six counties of the North Rift region – Turkana, West Pokot, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Baringo, Uasin Gishu and Nandi – have a population of 4.72 million and 1.87 million registered voters.
Save for Turkana, the rest voted overwhelmingly for Jubilee Party in 2017. This time around, apart from Turkana and West Pokot, the rest are dominated by UDA.
Early years
Dr Ruto was born to Daniel Cheruiyot and Sarah Cheruiyot on December 21, 1966 in the Kamagut area of Uasin Gishu. He received his elementary education at Kamagut and then joined Wareng Secondary School in Eldoret. He passed his A-Level examination at Kapsabet High School in Nandi to join the University of Nairobi, where he studied zoology and botany.
In 1992, he joined ‘Youth for Kanu’, which campaigned for President Moi in the first multi-party elections. In 1997, he won the Eldoret North parliamentary seat. Dr Ruto is a teetotaler, workaholic and go-getter. There are rumours that he once slapped his former MP, Reuben Chesire, at State House following a heated argument between the two in the run-up to the 2002 elections.
“Although I did not beat him up, I will do so very soon if he continues with his sinister motives against me,” Dr Ruto told the Nation after the incident. He said there was only a “heated argument” but Chesire claimed he was punched in the face.
Dr Ruto had accused Chesire of maligning him and holding meetings hostile to him in the constituency. He had also claimed that Chesire, the then-chairman of Industrial Development Bank, had been trying to discredit him to senior party figures. Chesire died in November 2008.
Will the DP claim the big prize at first attempt? Prof Masibo Lumala, a communication lecturer at Moi University, in Eldoret, says Dr Ruto’s biggest challenge is that he lacks financial muscle.
“He doesn’t seem to have strong financial backers like Mr Odinga, who enjoys the support of the Mount Kenya Foundation and the Kenyatta family. These billionaires have pumped a lot of money in the Azimio campaign, so it won’t be easy for the DP when things get thick,” he observes.
The don says Dr Ruto’s inability to keep campaign pledges could also affect his bid among the undecided because he often speaks big but fails to deliver. “He rarely keeps his promises, which is likely to cost him votes in the battleground counties, where many people are yet to make their mind. His colourful manifestos have never been implemented,” offers Prof Lumala.
The DP’s choice of running mate might also have a negative impact on his campaign due to his history as a ruthless administrator in the Moi regime. Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua is also said to be a loose talker.
“Mr Odinga’s choice of (Narc-Kenya party leader) Martha Karua was a masterstroke, much better than Mr Gachagua. It has turned the tables in Mt Kenya. If you were to put the two together on the podium, Ms Karua would definitely come on top,” he notes.
Prof Lumala says all past presidents since the reintroduction of multi-partyism in 1992 succeeded after several attempts and it would be a first for Dr Ruto to win it at first attempt. “Kenya has a history. (Mwai) Kibaki won in 2002 on his third attempt. Uhuru won in 2013 in his second bid. Is it possible for Ruto to win it in his first attempt? Yes, but unlikely. He, however, enjoys solid support in six Rift Valley counties,” he notes.
Dr Ruto has demonstrated the ability to withstand pressure. When his trusted followers were hounded out of every office after the “Handshake”, he was left with a narrow road to manoeuvre and get out of the rut.
His instincts led him to portray himself as the defender of the weak—the ‘hustlers’. He also found joy in the Lord and started spewing Biblical homilies every occasion. The spiritual lines could woo some ‘sheep’. God hears, God listens and God mends broken relations. He heals broken hearts and, like the poor wandering teacher writing in the sand found out in the desert, God delivers on his promises.
Additional reporting by Moses Nyamori.
Tomorrow in the Sunday Nation; The valley of death and the land of bandits and bullets
