Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s surprise endorsement of Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja – who is a member of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) – for a possible second term is threatening to trigger major political realignments in the capital city ahead of 2027 polls.
The pronouncement by Mr Odinga on Monday at Bomas of Kenya has since rattled some of the ODM members, who had declared interest to challenge Mr Sakaja in 2027.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and his Westlands counterpart Tim Wanyonyi are the perceived immediate political casualties of the endorsement. The two have indicated their plans to run on ODM against the incumbent.
Apart from those who have declared interest for the governor seat, the endorsement could also influence horse trading and sharing of key seats in the city by affiliate parties. Parties have in the past negotiated for positions to respond and to appeal to various voting ethnic blocs.
For instance, in 2022 polls, Azimio of Mr Odinga fielded Polycarp Igathe (Jubilee Party) for governor, Edwin Sifuna (ODM) for Senate and Esther Passaris (ODM) Woman Rep, among others in a delicate balancing act the factored in popularity of the individuals as well as the numerical strength of ethnic blocs in the city.
In UDA, the party also factored in ethnic arithmetic in picking its candidates. The party fielded Mr Sakaja for governor, Bishop Margret Wanjiru for Senate and Ms Millicent Omanga for Woman Rep.
In the negotiations, Mr Wanyonyi was one of the ODM governor aspirants, who had to sacrifice his ambition for the coalition to accommodate interests of affiliate parties as well as ethnic dynamics. Bishop Wanjiru was also prevailed upon to scale down her ambition for governor, in favour of Mr Sakaja.
Mr Owino on Tuesday told Nation that he has the endorsement of the Nairobi people, indicating his resolve to run against Mr Sakaja without the backing of the party.
“I have been endorsed by God and Kenyans,” said Mr Owino. This even as he received backing from unlikely quarters after lawyer Ndegwa Njiru, a perceived ally of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, said they would back Mr Owino even if running as an independent candidate.
On Monday, Mr Sakaja received ringing praises from some top ODM leaders, who proceeded to prod him to join the Orange party ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Mr Odinga, his wife Ida, ODM national chairman Gladys Wanga and the party’s Nairobi branch chairman George Aladwa (Makadara, MP) are some of the leaders, who appeared to endorse Mr Sakaja.
"I want Nairobi to remain united and strong. My son here (Mr Saakaja) will take charge," Mr Odinga said.
Earlier, both Ms Wanga and Mr Aladwa prodded the county boss to ditch Jubilee and join ODM ahead of the next poll.
“I want to thank Governor Sakaja in a special way for standing with our party despite not being our party member. I’m saying that as Baba goes to the AU, I’m asking Governor Sakaja to leave UDA and join ODM so that we can walk together,” Mr Aladwa said.
In response, Mr Sakaja said he would convene a meeting with all women ODM leaders in Nairobi to chart a way forward.
“I have heard what Governor Wanga and Aladwa have said. Dalili ya mvua ni mawingu na mwenye macho haambiwi tazama (the sign of rain is clouds, and he who has eyes has seen),” said Mr Sakaja.
In an attempt to diffuse building political tension in ODM, Ms Wanga on Tuesday told Nation that Mr Odinga only supported Mr Sakaja for his current term. She said Mr Sakaja has embraced ODM leadership in Nairobi in his pursuit to deliver on his promises to the people of Nairobi.
“Jakom (Raila) didn’t speak about 2027. Sakaja is the current governor, and he needs the support of ODM, which forms the majority in the assembly, for him to deliver. Raila made no mention about 2027, but about Sakaja’s current role as Nairobi governor,” said Ms Wanga.
In a previous interview with Nation, Mr Sakaja said his kind of politics made it easy for him to work with politicians from across the political divide. He said he easily campaigned even in the opposition areas in Nairobi during the 2017 and 2022 elections.
In 2017, he won the senate seat alongside Mike Sonko, who was elected governor, against Mr Odinga’s wave in Nairobi.
“When I won the senate seat in 2017, Jubilee didn’t win Nairobi that time. The presidential vote was not pro Uhuru, Raila won in Nairobi. But Sonko and myself were able to win governor and senate seats,” said Mr Sakaja.
“It is because we were never engaged in divisive politics. You have never heard me insult leaders in the opposition. I don’t do that; so I would go to ODM areas and be able to campaign freely. Many of my colleagues could not do that. So I could get both Jubilee and ODM votes to win the senate seat,” he said.
In the 2022 poll, he said he was able to win the governor seat because he could easily appeal to both opposition and UDA supporters.
“UDA lost both the Senate and Woman Rep positions. We (UDA) got four out of 17 MP seats. Out of the 85 MCAs seats, we got only 35,” he added.
Political analyst Mr Javas Bigambo views Mr Sakaja’s move as clear as day that he is seeking Mr Odinga’s support, but for many reasons.
“Raila and his party ODM and Azimio coalition has been very helpful to Sakaja since he was elected. The Governor therefore finds Raila as an inevitable political ally in managing the politics of Nairobi,” said Mr Bigambo.
According to the analyst, the newly found relationship between Mr Odinga and Dr Ruto is likely to leave many casualties, and the youthful leaders are trying to avoid this where balancing coalition interests may get them off guard.
“Sakaja wants to be adopted as one of the key political sons of Raila. If he finds his blessings and is apparent to the public, then he will find favor in the eyes of Luo and Luhya voters in Nairobi and across the country as opposed to sticking with Kenya Kwanza where his support is shaky now and face hostility from Mr Odinga’s block,” said Mr Bigambo.
