ODM leader Raila Odinga has gone back to the 2002 General Election script, modelling his campaign after the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) in terms of staffing and formation as he runs for the highest office in the land for the fifth time.
He is creating structures and organs akin to what they did about 20 years ago that saw retired President Mwai Kibaki ride on to power, except that this time the amendments to the political parties law that parliament is considering may offer safeguards to such an alliance in case he wins.
Next week, Mr Odinga will be asking parties supporting his election to forward names of members to the Coalition Coordinating Committee (CCC), what mimics the Summit, which handled house-keeping matters in the early days of Kibaki regime and was chaired by former vice-president Moody Awori. The names will be made public after coalition pact is formalised.
Though a technocrat in the Kibaki circles in the elections that year, Laikipia Governor Ndiritu Murithi was last week appointed by Mr Odinga to head his presidential campaign board.
Interestingly, business mogul SK Macharia, a prominent member of the Odinga’s team at some point also chaired Mr Kibaki’s vote-hunting crew. He has been accompanying Mr Odinga in his tours across the country, the latest being the Bukhungu rally in Kakamega.
ODM leader Raila Odinga (centre) receives politicians who defected to the Azimio la Umoja movement at Bukhungu stadium in Kakamega on December 31, 2021.
Photo credit: Isaac Wale | Nation Media Group
Nominated MP Maina Kamanda (Jubilee), who is drumming up support for Mr Odinga in Nairobi County, admitted that they are using the Narc script but an improved version of it. He was a staunch Kibaki supporter and even served in his Cabinet as Sports minister.
“Nobody wants to be left out of Azimio. It will form the next government. Unlike Narc that had teething issues on coming to power, we are putting in place a number of safeguards to ensure there are no frictions after victory,” he said.
In 2002, Mr Kibaki relied on regional kingpins to whip up support, the same script Mr Odinga is utilising.
With his ‘Kibaki Tosha’ declaration that caught some of the coalition partners unawares, Mr Odinga is regarded as one of the key forces behind the presidential victory having led the campaigns after Mr Kibaki was involved in a freak road accident that confined him to the wheel chair for a number of months, including when he took oath of office.
Through the broad-based alliance that also had the late vice-president Michael Kijana Wamalwa and Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu as original founders alongside Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki, the team effectively ended Kanu’s 40 years reign.
Kanu candidate, the current president Uhuru Kenyatta, conceded to Mr Kibaki even as some of the party members, according to politician and former chairman of Youth for Kanu 1992 (YK92) Cyrus Jirongo, still thought that the outgoing president Daniel Moi had a wildcard to unleash to extend the rule of the independence party.
“We want to utilise our strong presence in the 47 counties. When we begin campaigns proper, you’ll see our various team leaders take charge of voter mobilisation in different parts of the country. There will be numerous rallies happening concurrently in different parts of the country,” Minority Whip in the National Assembly and Mr Odinga’s political confidante Junet Mohamed told the Sunday Nation .
Some of the regional leaders in Mr Odinga’s camp are; Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho at the Coast and his Kakamega counterpart Wickliffe Oparanya in Western. He is expected to checkmate the influence of ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi from One Kenya alliance.
Mr Musalia supported Mr Odinga in the last polls and their political divorce could cost the Orange party leader some support in Luhya land. In a symbolic display of his elevated status, Mr Oparanya rode in the same car as Mr Odinga while getting to the stadium in the Bukhungu rally.
Then there are the likes of Governor Murithi, Nakuru county chief Lee Kinyanjui, former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth and vice-chairman of the ruling party, Jubilee, David Murathe that are leading the push to deliver Mount Kenya vote to the former prime minister.
Mr Murathe is also a former lawmaker for Gatanga. Governor Ngilu and her colleagues from lower eastern region, Dr Alfred Mutua (Machakos) and Prof Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni), are the wing leaders from there as Mr Odinga seeks the endorsement of his running mate in 2017 Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, the Ukambani supremo.
Working in concert with other leaders, Governor James Ongwae from Kisii is taking care of Nyanza-the same region Mr Odinga comes from.
Whether sheer coincidence or by design, another near similarity is in the slogans. While Narc had ‘Haki yetu sasa inawezekana (Our rights are now guaranteed or are possible), Mr Odinga’s new vehicle Azimio has Inawezekana (It’s possible).
The Political Parties (Amendment) Bill 2021 if endorsed will allow candidates to run on either coalition party tickets or individual parties. But importantly, it ensures that no member goes back on whatever an arrangement be it power or resource-sharing affiliated parties agree on before the elections.
Narc dream died almost immediately Mr Kibaki assumed the instruments of power with members having no legal recourse.
Equally, one of the reasons for the parting of ways by members of Nasa coalition, the team that sponsored Mr Odinga’s presidential bid in 2017, was the charge by ANC, Ford Kenya and Wiper parties that ODM – the dominant member refused to give them their share of the political parties fund. The proposed changes to the law seeks to cure such.
In fact, President Uhuru Kenyatta as a way of reassuring parties in talks with Mr Odinga to back his bid, is said to have tasked his troops to come up with the amendments to address their fears.
Part of the plan is to end up with majority MPs in the bicameral parliament as they will not only be crucial when it comes to approving key nominees to plum government positions but also when it comes to pushing the government agenda in the House.
It is the same reason that has informed DP Ruto’s decision, in his case he’s pushing for homogeneity. Where all his MPs are drawn from UDA party.
Governance expert Prof Winnie Mitullah says coalitions are the new norm in the country’s politics and that even DP Ruto who is running on UDA ticket will somewhat end up with a coalition of sorts. DP Ruto is currently in a charm offensive to woo Mr Mudavadi and Ford Kenya party leader Moses Wetang’ula to back him.
“Alliances are a sure way of pulling together resources, money and human to mobilise the votes. When you don’t have dominant parties like in our case, a serious presidential contended is left with little or no room but to cooperate with others,” she said.
The circumstances under which Narc was established, according to Ugunja MP and Secretary for the Political Affairs in ODM, Opiyo Wandayi, are different from the present circumstances. Back then, he argued, the clamour was about uprooting a “hegemonic” Kanu regime. “[But] now, it's about delivering the third and final liberation of the nation, which revolves around economic prosperity for a united people.”
Mr Odinga, he said, was just but an agent for the liberation movement.
“The movement itself is propelled by the people...That it bears certain similarities with the Narc formation is simply but a coincidence,” Mr Wandayi said, adding that the only commonality is that, like Narc, the Azimio wave is “unstoppable.”
ODM leader Raila Odinga (in blue cap) at Kasarani Stadium on December 10, 2021 where he officially declared his candidature for the presidency in the 2022 General Election.
Photo credit: Sila Kiplagat | Nation Media Group
Unlike 20 years ago, (those born two years after that will be voting for the first time this year) when Narc captured the nation’s psyche having ran out of patience with Kanu, and yearning to breathe some freshness and restore civil liberties, Mr Odinga is today faced with a different set of realities and dynamics.
Observers say his main challenge is to create a euphoria like back then for him to elbow out his strongest challenger and former member of the the Pentagon in 2007 now Deputy President William Ruto.
The fact that he is sometimes seen as the ‘state project’, something his opponents are capitalising on, given his dalliance with President Kenyatta fundamentally makes his ticket different from that of Mr Kibaki then as Narc was running against a candidate supported by the incumbent. Some say he may have, by cooperating with the president, dented his reform credentials even though his handlers like Mr Mohamed say there was need to change tack this time around.
“We have tried activism and all manner of methods as the opposition to capture state house, we would be foolish to employ the same yet they have failed us before. Mr Odinga is the best bet for this country once the president retires,” he told this writer in the past.
Other than 2002, Mr Odinga has been in two other alliances, Cord (Coalition for reform and democracy) that mainly had ODM and Wiper in 2013 and Nasa (National super alliance) in the 2017 polls. This promises to be the fourth coalition he’s forming.
