Opposition leader Raila Odinga has ordered an audit of the last election to identify his vulnerabilities even as he faces an internal rebellion that will test his grip on his political constituency.
National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, a close confidant of Mr Odinga, said the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition boss was working with national and international organisations to audit the August 9 General Election he lost narrowly to President William Ruto in order to understand what happened.
Mr Odinga has however pushed back suggestions that his clamour for constitutional reforms targeting the courts and electoral commission is laying the ground for a sixth presidential bid.
“There are glaring things he has come across and the audit will reveal what happened. He will share with Kenyans at the appropriate time,” said Mr Mohamed, insisting that the audit does not suggest a 2027 presidential run for Mr Odinga.
“How do you start preparing for 2027 one month after the elections? I cannot answer whether he is done contesting for the presidency. He is the only one who can answer that,” said the Suna East MP.
“Mr Odinga views the push for reforms as a constant in all jurisdictions that seek to perfect and strengthen their systems, including the most established democracies. But he does not believe the push for reforms, which he intends to lead in Kenya one more time, has to be tied or lead to a presidential run,” his office said in a statement.
Mr Odinga is confronted with a challenging period of his four-decade long political career. He is facing an indifferent traditional political support base, restless youthful leaders clamouring for passage of the leadership baton and a highly calculating President who has already cast his eyes on the 2027 elections.
Recent events point to a man whose supporters have accepted no longer has any more “bullets” in his armoury. His recent Jeevanjee and Mathare visits during which the popular politician was hardly mobbed by the usual crowds are classic examples.
Internally, some Azimio leaders are working on their own power plans, a move that could spell the biggest political threat to the coalition’s unity and post-poll strategy.
Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka is rolling out his presidential campaign to face off with President William Ruto in 2027.
Youthful ODM leaders including Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Narok Senator Ledama Olekina have publicly protested betrayal by the party in distribution of parliamentary positions. Nyamira Senator Okong’o Omogeni also lamented betrayal by the party of its Kisii support base in distribution of Senate committee positions.
All these internal feuds are coming at a time Mr Odinga faces an onslaught by President Ruto who is poaching some Azimio-affiliated legislators to weaken the opposition.
Are these tell-tale signs of the beginning of the end for the man who has been synonymous with opposition politics?
Considered the most unpredictable politician Kenya has ever had, earning him the nickname “Agwambo” (mystery man), some caution you to declare the ODM party leader “politically dead” at your own risk.
The 77-year-old has at times been written off only to defy the predictions and mount serious comebacks, confounding critics and supporters.
Mr Odinga managed to put together rigorous presidential bids after the 2007 disappointment. He has had to bank on coalitions with other regional kingpins to propel him back into the limelight.
Mr Mohamed laughed off claims that Mr Odinga is facing rebellion from within ODM as well as losing grip of his supporters.
“People positioning themselves for positions in Parliament and committee membership is not rebellion,” said the Azimio Secretary-General. He said the despondency of the former premier’s supporters was a reaction to the conduct of institutions of governance in the country and not a sign of loss of faith in their leader.
“It was because people were shocked about what the institutions of governance, IEBC and Supreme Court, have done,” he said.
“It (indifference) is not a sign of resignation by the supporters. Very far from it,” added National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi.
He said the journey to liberate the country has had many setbacks and triumphs, however, the setbacks have never dimmed their commitment and desire to achieve the dream.
“We are sure that in the fullness of time we shall recover from that setback (August 9 elections). 2027 is too far away and a week is such a long time in politics,” said the Ugunja MP.
Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi said Mr Odinga does not need to reinvent himself as he has politically controlled half of the country since 2007.
“He (Raila) is a pro-people leader and we have started seeing signs that this regime is going to be dictatorial and a people-centred leader like Raila cannot just sit there and wait hoping that things will work out,” said Mr Osotsi. “It is our democratic right to oppose the government of the day if it is not doing the right things and it is in no way pointing to Raila reinventing himself.”
Political commentator Javas Bigambo, however, said Mr Odinga has mastered reinventing himself and his latest clamour could point to the same. He said that age and health have taken toll on Mr Odinga and he may not have the mojo and the energy he has had before to make another serious stab at the presidency.
“Given Ruto’s age and with his hands on statecraft, he will be determined as every other president has been to rule for the full term of 10 years. That will render Raila, while politically still significant, incapable of mounting any serious presidential campaign to challenge Ruto,” said Mr Bigambo.
“Raila’s charisma has been waning over the last 15 years. We have seen a steady decline in his charm and charisma since 2007. He may want to rise but he will not be like the sun with heat for people to feel. He will be like the sun rising in a season of rain,” he added Mr.
Nonetheless, Mr Odinga has embarked on a move to solidify his Nyanza support base cautioning against being divided by leaders who, he said, are fighting for their own selfish interests.
