Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga faces an uphill task in his 2022 State House quest following the collapse of the Handshake-backed Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).
Though he has always insisted that the ‘Handshake’ — the political truce between him and President Kenyatta — was not geared towards next year’s elections, its collapse deals a blow to Mr Odinga, who drove the process with President Kenyatta.
BBI proposed among other changes an expanded Executive, which would have given politicians an easier time when negotiating for backing for presidency.
Having announced his bid for the top job on Saturday in Bondo, Siaya, Mr Odinga now finds himself in a tight spot, with what would have been his biggest legacy having been thrown out by the courts.
The BBI flop also complicates Mr Odinga’s coalition plans, with Uhuru allies from Mt Kenya developing cold feet given the lack of enough executive positions to dish out. The regional leaders had shown interest in backing Mr Odinga for the top job
The same is true about his future negotiations with the One Kenya Alliance of Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Gideon Moi, and Moses Wetang’ula. Mr Odinga now has only one deputy president slot to promise, as opposed to the five positions that would have been available under BBI.
But perhaps the biggest worry for Mr Odinga is whether the BBI flop will have the reverse effect of the 2005 constitutional push. Mr Odinga then led the No campaign, which led to the birth of ODM.
Leading a stellar group of senior government officials including ministers, Mr Odinga led the country to vote against the President Mwai Kibaki-led Yes camp.
In 2007, Mr Odinga used this big win to garner 4.35 million votes against Kibaki’s 4.58 million, but with an impressive 99 MPs against Mr Kibaki’s paltry 43 MPs elected on his party ticket.
Constitutional lawyer Bobby Mkangi, who was a member of the Committee of Experts that drafted the 2010 Constitution, argues that the BBI loss was so consequential on Mr Odinga’s side, it might have the same effect as if Mr Odinga “has lost an election”.
“There is political mileage which comes when a person loses a process. Psychological perspective considers that citizens take that when BBI is thwarted, Raila loses and it is not a good show politically,” said Mr Mkangi.
Both ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed have said the BBI should not be viewed as Mr Odinga’s project. They argue the proponents of the initiative were pushing for good governance.
“What we were looking at was to create a conducive environment, an inclusive government. When Jubilee came to power in 2013 and 2017, many parts of the country felt excluded and saw it as a duopoly. We wanted to expand it and all those positions could not come from one community,” Mr Mohamed said.
“We must find a way to achieve true inclusivity, equity in representation and resource sharing,” Mr Sifuna added.
What remains uncertain in ODM chief’s 2022 journey is whether he can rally the mountain behind his candidacy, with or without the help of the Head of State.
Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru sought to correct the perception that Jubilee leaders allied to President Kenyatta were now rooting for Mr Odinga. She said “we’ve opened doors to all candidates as long as they assure us that they will factor in our interests.”
This is a clear indication that the former Prime Minister is set for an uphill task to penetrate the vote-rich region that has always voted against him since his first stab at the presidency.
But Kajiado Central MP Memusi Kanchori said the former Prime Minister was not banking on BBI to craft his State House mission.
“The proposed changes of the Constitution were never about an individual. The changes in the Executive was but one of the many other things Kenyans wanted. Raila has not lost anything in BBI,” Mr Memusi told the Nation.
But perhaps the biggest headache for the former PM is the political debt with OKA, which has demanded that he honours the deal and backs one of them.
“Raila and the OKA team are on their own, each on his own, fighting each other and Ruto. Ruto looks boosted but he should not be overconfident. Things change politically with time. No guarantees,” said Prof Macharia Munene, of the United States International University’s.
ANC deputy leader Ayub Savula said the party will not allow Mr Odinga to be endorsed by other OKA principals, arguing that Mr Mudavadi has to be on the ballot paper.
Nominated Senator Sylvia Kasanga, a Kalonzo ally, said: “We want Raila to walk with us in order to deliver for Kenyans. For this to happen, it is time for him to support Kalonzo because for the last election cycles, our party leader has supported and stood with Raila.”
