The stage is set for a titanic political duel between the Kenya Kwanza Alliance led by Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga after the unveiling of the Azimio la Umoja grand coalition.
The last-minute entrance of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Kanu’s Gideon Moi into the Azimio bus has created a behemoth of a coalition party with the full backing of President Kenyatta.
Azimio la Umoja movement has been crafted around ethnic kingpins and echoes the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) deal of 2002 that swept Mr Mwai Kibaki into power and ended Kanu’s rule.
“I have endorsed Raila in good faith. He’s our preferred candidate. I ask all One Kenya Alliance members to support him to ensure the country doesn’t end up in corrupt hands; Raila won’t fail us,” Mr Musyoka said at Jacaranda grounds in Nairobi on Saturday.
This is the third time the former vice president is shelving his State House ambitions to rally behind Mr Odinga, a move which now boosts his chances of locking Dr Ruto out of Ukambani region.
Governors Alfred Mutua (Machakos), Prof Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) and Charity Ngilu (Kitui) had already declared their support for Mr Odinga.
Dr Ruto is banking on United Democratic Alliance chairman Johnstone Muthama, former Nairobi deputy governor Jonathan Mueke, Makueni deputy governor Adelina Mwau and MPs Victor Munyaka (Machakos Town) and Nimrod Mbai (Kitui East) to lead his charge in Ukambani.
In 2017, Kitui, Makueni and Machakos counties handed Mr Odinga nearly a million votes, pushing him to 44.74 per cent of the national tally. In 2013, the region gave Mr Odinga 768,025 votes while in 2017, he got 968,437. It now has 1.69 million registered voters.
A political analyst, Prof Masibo Lumala, said Mr Odinga has successfully brought all regional kingpins to his side.
“It will be a big fight for Dr Ruto; the former Eastern region is gone. Mr Muthama cannot measure up to the influence of the three governors and Mr Musyoka. Coast is now with Azimio as well as Nyanza and a big chunk of North Eastern. If Azimio garners 50 per cent in Central, it would make things difficult for Dr Ruto,” he said.
He said the only headache for Mr Odinga’s team now, with OKA coming on board, is on how to settle on the running mate.
Another analyst, Prof Macharia Munene, observed: “OKA’s entry will boost Raila. So far Azimio is doing well, swallowing outfits whose main purpose was always to give prominence to party leaders. Ultimately, it is how the candidate projects himself to the voters that counts; not the number of endorsements.”
Kanu secretary-general Nick Salat said the National Executive Council (NEC) gave them the green light to join Azimio. “The mandate was given almost a month ago when we had our NEC. We were instructed to only negotiate with Azimio,” he said.
“Azimio la Umoja stands for unity, OKA is also seeking unity. We first deal with the things which are common, which is the unity of the nation.”
University of Nairobi don XN Iraki, however, alleged that OKA leaders are not as principled as Mr Odinga and President Kenyatta.
“OKA could bring some votes to Azimio but someone can portray them as unprincipled, political watermelons. We could also ask if OKA has core followers to make a big difference,” he argued.
Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University, said although Dr Ruto has made significant inroads among the youth, there was a likelihood that a majority of them would follow their ethnic kingpins.
“If Ruto manages to dismantle the belief that we all have to vote along tribal lines and vote class instead of tribe, then he is on the right path. If he does not manage it then he is in for a rude shock,” he observed.
Mr Javas Bigambo, a governance expert, said DP Ruto needs to intensify the hustler narrative and the bottom-up economic model to overcome tribal politics.
“As Dr Ruto makes that effort, his opponents are solidifying tribal cells and constellations which they will use for political mobilisation. They are representing tribal interests. As such, tribalism is about to have an effect on the presidential election outcome. It may have a 45 per cent effect, the other factors being economy, technology, and perception,” he said.
