The public points to a major political cold war between the two de facto regional kingpins, both of whom harbour thinly veiled ambitions of leading the country in the coming years.
What started with the DP reading the riot act to Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja over his plans to relocate matatus from the city centre has now snowballed into a nasty political duel between leaders from the two regions.
The brewing ethnic contest and political chest-thumping are at the heart of a fierce battle for President Ruto’s attention with the 2027 elections in mind.
Gachagua is the second-in-command and the heir-apparent in the Ruto administration, while Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Mudavadi has made it clear that he has only deferred his presidential dream for the time being.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo opines that Gachagua is keen on filling the political leadership vacuum left in the Mt Kenya region with the exit of former President Uhuru Kenyatta from active politics.
This, he explains, is why the former Mathira MP wants to be seen as championing the economic and political interests of the region.
According to Bigambo, Gachagua’s clash with Sakaja is part of a scheme to demonstrate that the DP has the interests of business moguls from the region at heart.
This, the analyst adds, is a clever strategy to win over even those who backed the Kenyatta-Raila Odinga alliance in the lead-up to the August 9 General Election.
“It is not Sakaja who is DP Gachagua’s bull’s eye; it is his personal entrenchment and the interests that come with that,” said Mr Bigambo.
Secondly, the analyst explained, the DP wants to leave President Ruto in no doubt that he is the person to go to for Kikuyu support.
In October last year, President Ruto declared himself the political supremo of the Mt Kenya region.
“I am welcoming them to the mountain, but as they come, let them know that mlima ina wenyeji (Mt Kenya has its owners). When they were away, I made several tours of the region, we built roads and initiated other development projects,” said Ruto, speaking at Nyahururu DEB Primary School in Laikipia County.
Gachagua is now thought to be casting himself as indispensable as far as influence in the region is concerned.
“Governor Sakaja is just a red herring. The issue is that Ruto went to Central before he got Gachagua and so in 2027, will Ruto continue doing it the way he did it with the peripheral support of his DP or will he consider him the inevitable running-mate because he would have strongly entrenched himself as the Central Kenya political supremo?” Bigambo said.
By virtue of his office, the DP is the senior-most politician from the Mt Kenya region and has been traversing the region trying to bring together all elected leaders.
He has been reaching out to Azimio-allied leaders from the region to join his camp, vowing to ensure there are no political divisions between Mt Kenya East and West.
“We will unite our region, Mount Kenya, so that we speak in one voice,” he said.
Gachagua also reached out to the Mount Kenya Foundation, a club of tycoons from Central Kenya who reportedly bankrolled Azimio leader Raila Odinga ahead of the August 9 elections, to rally behind the Kenya Kwanza administration.
In an interview with NTV last September, Gachagua said: “What is kingpin all about? What I know is that I am the Deputy President of the Republic of Kenya and I am the senior-most leader from the region. So, the way people perceive me, I leave it to them, but what I also know is that I talk to the people of Mount Kenya in their own language and they listen to me.”
On the other hand, Mudavadi has been keen on consolidating his Western backyard behind him. To that end, the former vice-president has recently held several meetings with elected leaders from the region, which have been interpreted as part of efforts to rally the region behind him ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Sirisia MP John Waluke, a Jubilee lawmaker who doubles up as chairman of Western Kenya Members of Parliament Caucus, said the caucus was keen on restoring Luhya unity, which has been elusive since Independence.
Central Organisation of Trade Union boss Francis Atwoli has also been warming up to the idea of having leaders coalesce around Mudavadi, who is regarded as the senior-most leader from the Western region and who, besides having served as the vice-president and held several ministerial positions, also vied for the presidency in 2013.
In 2017, Mudavadi endorsed Rail Odinga for the top seat on the defunct National Super Alliance (Nasa) ticket while in 2022, he shelved his presidential ambitions and cast his lot with Ruto.
Sakaja backed Mudavadi’s presidential bid in the lead-up to the August 9, 2022 elections,
A bullish Gachagua recently told the city governor that he instructed members of his community to vote for him. He further asked Sakaja to be consulting on matters that could negatively impact businesses in the city.
The silent rift between the DP and the Chief Cabinet Secretary has sucked in leaders from Mt Kenya and Western regions.
“With their new offices, their ambitions have been reignited because Rigathi perceives that he is not far from being president, while Musalia sees that he has a chance of becoming president perhaps in 2027 or 2032. They will want to use their positions to rebrand themselves,” Prof Masibo Lumala of Moi University says.
Bumula MP Jack Wamboka threatened to have Gachagua kicked out once MPs resume sittings on February 13: “I have collected the requisite signatures and immediately we resume next month, I will give notice of the impeachment motion. We cannot have a leader who is disenfranchising all Kenyans.”
“Musalia is behaving better than the DP,” opined Wamboka. “Every time Gachagua opens his mouth, you wonder whether he is the Deputy President [of Kenya] or he is the Deputy President of the Kikuyu republic. He is becoming a very big embarrassment to this country,” the lawmaker said.
Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa weighed in: “DP Gachagua must respect the Constitution. Governor Sakaja is in charge of Nairobi County. Let him do his work without interference.”
“If they cannot unite their region to vote as a bloc, how will they marshal support to impeach the Deputy President?” wondered Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi. “Yes, the DP is a national leader, but he also has a place where he comes from. As the Deputy President, he is the leader of the Kikuyu community. Therefore, when he feels that our people are threatened, he has to speak about it just the way Mudavadi can speak on the behalf of Western people.”
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga dared Mr Wamboka to table the censure motion, saying “we are more than ready”.
For his part, Sakaja maintained that he would not back down on his reform agenda, saying he had President Ruto’s backing.
“...I heard someone saying that ...’ oooh Sakaja, hii Nairobi ilikuwa hivyo kabla uzaliwe , but that is why I am Governor...I cannot leave it to be how it was before I was born,” Mr Sakaja said.
“Change is difficult but inevitable... we must change our city....to be that shining jewel on the African Continent,” he added.
The silent war between DP Gachagua and Mr Mudavadi began immediately ANC teamed up with UDA and Ford-Kenya to form Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
“As far as I am concerned, Ruto is the presidential candidate, and the running mate will come from the Mountain at an appropriate time. Mr Mudavadi’s position is subject to discussion. He will not be the running mate and that I can confirm,” said Mr Gachagua in February 2022.
“When they (ANC and Ford-Kenya) came on board, we had had many discussions, and we were forthright with them because we are honest people,” he added.
To defuse political tension, President Ruto created the office of the prime cabinet secretary, though some of the responsibilities of the two offices seem to overlap, with political pundits saying that was a deliberate move by the Head of State to keep the two “busy”.
Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa said those saying Mr Mudavadi is eyeing DP Gachagua’s position in 2027 are “reading too much” into the political ties between the two.
“The narrative of a cold war between the two is being perpetuated by Azimio orphans who want to remain relevant,” said the MP.
