Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga have switched tactics as each tries to re-align their campaigns and target areas that both camps feel will determine who will occupy State House after the 2022 elections.
Realising what his incessant concentration on President Uhuru Kenyatta’s political bastion of central Kenya might cost his State House bid, bearing in mind that he is now facing stiff competition from Mr Odinga, DP Ruto has reduced his trips to Mt Kenya and expanded his outreach to other regions.
The ODM leader, on the other hand, is heading the opposite direction; he has intensified his vote-hunt in Mt Kenya, an area he was not campaigning in but which he now feels has become a swing vote.
An analysis of DP’s visits from September that are shared with the public through social media and the press reveals that the country’s second-in-command has slowed his rallies in Mt Kenya. The reductions seem to have accelerated after the former Prime Minister met Mount Kenya Foundation (MKF) and started grassroots tours of the region in September. Dr Ruto’s focus seems to have shifted to other regions like Ukambani, Coast and Western with his main challenger putting spirited efforts in climbing the mountain.
With DP Ruto having made approximately over 145 rallies from late September to date, only 16 meetings of the visits have been in President Kenyatta’s political bedrock with the remaining 129 rallies being distributed to 15 counties outside the Central region.
The DP forays outside central Kenya started intensifying around September when Mr Odinga began meeting Mt Kenya delegations and touring the region.
Before September and despite the ban on political rallies imposed to curb the spread of Covid-19, Dr Ruto made over 20 visits to Mt Kenya. Western, Ukambani and Coast got one, two and five visits respectively.
Since the region has become increasingly complex politically, with the four presidential hopefuls launching a charm offensive to win swing votes in the belief that the community is not likely to produce Kenya's next president, Mr Odinga is not leaving any stone unturned with the hope of slashing a pie of over six million votes.
As DP Ruto is working with young legislators from the region – Ndindi Nyoro (Kiharu), Rigathi Gachagua (Mathira), Kimani Ichungwah (Kikuyu) and Susan Kihika (Nakuru) among others, his main challenger Mr Odinga is working with almost all the governors from the region – Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru), James Nyoro (Kiambu), Ndiritu Muriithi (Laikipia), Francis Kimemia (Nyandarua), Kiraitu Murungi (Meru), Martin Wambora (Embu) and Muthomi Njuki (Tharaka Nithi) and a number of Kieleweke MPs led by Kieni MP Kanini Kega.
Yesterday, Mr Odinga was in Nyandarua where he said those involved in theft of public resources are in a panic mood as the third revolution takes shape under the Azimio la Umoja.
He said only thieves of public resources doubt the possibility of the Sh6, 000 stipend for needy families.
Mr Odinga’s motorcade was severally blocked by residents demanding to be addressed by him, delaying the scheduled programme for hours.
He said he knows the loopholes used to plunder and steal public funds, and will permanently seal them as thieves rot in jail.
Nyandarua Governor Francis Kimemia and Nakuru’s Lee Kinyanjui welcomed Raila to Nyandarua saying the ODM leader had shown willingness to work with Mt Kenya in ensuring that the region prospers.
Mr Odinga visited with a basket full of promises for Nyandarua as he traversed Kinangop, Kipipiri, Ol Kalou and Ol Joro Orok constituencies.
Water CS Sicily Kariuki said Mr Odinga is a friend of President Uhuru Kenyatta, supporting his development agenda and legacy.
Mr Odinga announced that the government has released Sh300 million for the upgrade of Engineer Level Three Hospital to a Level Four facility, a project to be completed by mid next year. He also promised to revive Midlands Company, a vegetable processing industry in Njabini Town.
"My other name is Tinga, between a tinga and a wheelbarrow, which can climb a mountain better?" posed Mr Odinga at Engineer and Ndunyu Njeru markets.
Mr Ruto, on the other hand, was in Kitui and Machakos yesterday, an area that voted for Mr Odinga in the last election courtesy of his alliance with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. He returned to the region for the fourth time in 10 days as he enhanced his vote hunt with a pledge to create four million new jobs and form an all-inclusive government.
Dr Ruto, who presided over two fundraisers for churches addressed a series of rallies in Kitui town, Kitui west and Mwingi town, urged residents to compare his bottom up economic agenda with the promises offered by his competitors.
The DP pledged to create four million new jobs in his first year in office if he’s elected the president, by adopting State sponsored labour intensive programmes. “We’ll jumpstart the country’s economy by initiating fiscal programmes like housing, agro-processing and funding small and medium enterprises that are labour-intensive to create millions of direct jobs for the unemployed youth. He blamed the unemployment crisis for the collapse of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda whose two main pillars – food security and housing, were to create the jobs and consequently address other social challenges like crime, depression among the youth and drug abuse.
Political analyst and University of Dodoma don Amukowa Anangwe said since the DP has put more emphasis on Mount Kenya, the entry of Mr Odinga in the region and other leaders like Musalia Mudavadi of Amani National Congress (ANC) and Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka is set to deal him a big blow in his matrix to succeed President Kenyatta. He thus has to try to diversify his mix of the voters basket while Mr Odinga has to woo new voters.
“If Ruto gets less than 50 per cent of Mount Kenya votes, he is out of the race. He needs to garner around 70–80 per cent of the region to make him safe because if you look elsewhere, for instance, Western people will vote for Mudavadi and Raila with Ruto coming last. In Ukambani, without Kalonzo, Ruto cannot get substantive votes and the number of votes in Coast is not such substantive,” Prof Anangwe elucidated.
University of Dodoma don further argued that the DP has taken a gamble by shunning the regional kingpins to solely rely on young legislators to help him make inroads in regions like Western and Ukambani.
Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University argues that the DP must be very careful with the former Prime Minister’s moves into the region now that he is not on good terms with his boss President Kenyatta.
“Raila is making good efforts and he seems to have a lot of powerful support at the top from the establishment to the moneyed people and this can be percolated downwards,” he said adding that ‘The more Raila polishes his image, the more that he will attract votes from this region.’
Yesterday, the DP allies told the Nation that as he makes forays in other regions, they are busy on the ground building the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party, noting that the region had decided long ago on who they will vote for the presidency.
“We are currently busy on the ground building UDA as well as ensuring that the region is fully behind DP Ruto,” said Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro.
Former Sports CS Rashid Echesa, a key ally of Ruto from Western, says they have constituted campaign committees in every constituency to help them in recruiting supporters of UDA.
“Unlike 2017 when it was hard to sell Jubilee in this region but now, around 60 per cent have accepted to work with UDA. If elections are held today and it happens that my brother Musalia Mudavadi is on the ballot, Ruto will garner 60 per cent.”
The region is currently under the spectre of the former Prime Minister who has enjoyed enormous support.
On the other hand, there is Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi, his Ford-Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula and former Trade minister Mukhisa Kituyi having all set eyes on State House next year.
Cotu secretary-general Francis Atwoli recently disclosed that he will be leading the efforts aimed at ensuring that the political bigwigs from the region, which has over 2.2 million votes, approach the 2022 General Election jointly.
Mr Atwoli who has been leaning towards Mr Odinga said the region will be coming up with a wish list of the irreducible minimums which will be presented to presidential hopefuls apart from the DP who he said is not ripe to lead the country.
