United Opposition leaders during the Komboa Kenya tour in Luanda, Vihiga County.
With a projected 3.2 million votes in the next elections, the Western Kenya bloc is emerging as one of the most contested battlegrounds.
Made up of Vihiga, Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties, projections by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) show that the bloc will have in excess of 3.2 million votes in the 2027 General Election.
Its numerical strength has seen top political players pitch camp there, making lofty promises, including a running mate slot and 2032 succession plan.
President William Ruto’s allies have repeatedly told the region to prepare to succeed him in 2032, while the United Opposition politicians have not hidden their desire to pick a running mate from the region. ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has become a favourite for the second-in-command slot within the opposition.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi (left) and President William Ruto during a meeting with Kenya Kwanza leaders in Karen on August 17, 2022.
President Ruto has Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa and Cotu Secretary-General Francis Atwoli leading his re-election campaign.
The leaders have been telling locals that they stand a chance of succeeding Dr Ruto in 2032 if they secure his second term.
In the opposition camp, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka are relying on DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala to deliver the region.
Mr Sifuna and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi have also joined forces in firing up anti-Ruto sentiments through their Linda Mwananchi ODM faction.
Last weekend, both opposition and pro-government leaders were in the region, which has historically failed to vote as a bloc since the death of former Vice-President Michael Kijana Wamalwa in 2003.
Mr Mudavadi has argued that the region stands to benefit more by remaining in government than in opposition.
“There are people purporting to give direction to our community yet they were impeached and they don’t know their future. As your leaders, we have decided to support President Ruto’s re-election,” said Mr Mudavadi. “I told you in 2022 he is the route and now I’m telling you again he is still the route. We should remain focused.”
National Assembly speaker Moses Wetangula confers with Prime cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi at Masinde Muliro Stadium in Bungoma county on 1st June 2024 during the 61st Madaraka day celebrations.
Mr Mudavadi, Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Oparanya are widely regarded as part of the old guard that has dominated Western Kenya politics for decades. The trio is also increasingly being viewed as key players in the region’s succession politics in 2032 should President Ruto secure a second term.
Mr Wetang’ula has recently intensified his political activities in the region, frequently hosting delegations at his Kabuchai home in Bungoma County and attending empowerment events alongside pro-government legislators.
“We want to walk together as a people. Do not allow outsiders to divide you along ethnic lines. If we remain united, one of us will definitely ascend to the presidency in 2032,” said Mr Wetang'ula during an empowerment function in Khwisero Constituency last Friday. “
Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka is among leaders who have openly argued that the region’s best opportunity lies in 2032 rather than fielding a presidential candidate in 2027.
As Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Mudavadi work to sustain support for President Ruto, whose popularity in parts of the region appears to be waning, there is a growing call for firm assurances that Western Kenya will be supported in its bid for the presidency in 2032.
Pro-government politicians are also divided on whether the region should demand the running mate position in the next election or remain satisfied with the positions it currently holds in government.
“In 2027, Mr President, your running mate should come from this region. That way, mathematically, we can move closer to the top seat,” said Ikolomani MP Bernard Shinali.
“We are demanding the running mate position to Ruto in the 2027 General Election because we have the requisite numbers and capability for the position,” read a statement after a meeting of legislators allied to the government last month led by Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Oparanya.
Following a successful three-day tour of Kakamega, Trans Nzoia and Bungoma counties, opposition leaders claimed the region had been short-changed and that promises made by the current administration remained unfulfilled.
“They are walking and claiming Luhya are not united yet it is the leaders. We are united and in 2027 we shall vote out Ruto’s government,” said Mr Malala.
Mr Gachagua claimed that the promised 30 per cent share of government positions for the region had not been implemented, nor had the pledge to construct 1,000 kilometres of roads.
Mr Musyoka, who twice served as Raila Odinga’s running mate, hopes to inherit part of the former ODM leader’s political support base. However, the rise of Mr Sifuna has electrified the region, with Mr Osotsi, Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale and a section of elders endorsing him as the region’s political kingpin and backing his presidential ambitions.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna addresses mourners at Gilgil Stadium on June 12, 2026, during the requiem mass for the 16 Utumishi Girls Senior School students who lost their lives in a dormitory fire two weeks ago.
According to a TIFA poll released last month, Mr Sifuna is the most popular political leader in the Luhya Nation, enjoying a 44 per cent approval rating.
Despite largely backing Raila since 2007, the region has consistently split its vote. The rivalry between the Bukusu and Maragoli communities has often influenced whether parts of the region align with the government or opposition.
In the 2022 General Election, the Bukusu community, which dominates Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties, largely supported President Ruto, while the Maragoli community in Vihiga County remained firmly behind Raila.
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