The row between President William Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua is fuelled by the voting power of Mt Kenya.
Mr Gachagua projects himself as the region’s defender, pushing the one-man one-shilling drive and appointment of locals to plum state positions. Dr Ruto’s allies in the Mountain portray the DP as a divisive figure.
A push to isolate Mr Gachagua and install Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as the Mt Kenya kingpin is gaining ground.
It is the reason the President reached out to opposition leader Raila Odinga as a back-up should Mr Gachagua walk away with a chunk of voters. Mr Odinga enjoys the support of Nyanza, Western and Coast. He has also had an upper hand in Nairobi.
Dr Ruto’s August 9, 2022, presidential election victory was largely because of the backing of Mt Kenya. He garnered 7,176, 141 (50.49 per cent) votes against Mr Odinga’s 6,942,930 or 48.85 per cent.
He was swept to power mainly by 17 counties that contributed nearly two-thirds of the total votes secured.
The 10 Mt Kenya counties and seven from the North Rift handed Dr Ruto 4.5 million votes, translating to 63 per cent of his tally.
Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Nakuru gave him 2,938, 309 votes while Baringo, Bomet, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Nandi, West Pokot and Uasin Gishu contributed 1, 602,807.
“Mr Gachagua controls the region. Whatever we are witnessing are kicks of a dying horse,” said Mr Herman Manyora, a political analyst.
“The President’s influence in Mt Kenya took a dive when it became clear to the community that he was abandoning and persecuting the DP. If Ruto doesn’t change the way he relates with Gachagua, he will get no votes from Mt Kenya.”
But Mr Dismas Mokua, another pundit, says the President can still have the region in his grip if he fulfils his campaign pledges.
“Gachagua will face challenges if he attempts to sabotage the President’s re-election. Dr Ruto has the capacity and competence to deploy unconventional grassroots strategies anchored in emotion and logic,” he said.
Mr Mokua adds that the President has many lieutenants with ambitions in Mt Kenya and who can be deployed to plant landmines in the DP’s strategies.
Forty eight MPs allied to Dr Ruto escalated the onslaught against Mr Gachagua by installing Prof Kindiki as the region’s spokesperson on Thursday.
“The orderly prioritisation of the development of the region has been frustrated by threats of dire political consequences unless we support certain personal interests and ambitions,” the 48 lawmakers said in a joint statement.
“Yet time is of the essence, given that we are already under three years to the end of the first term of this administration. As the elected leaders from this region and its diaspora...We unanimously resolve that our link to the government be Cabinet Secretary for the Interior...Prof Kithure Kindiki.”
Prof David Monda, another analyst, says the Nyahururu declaration was the President launching a war against his deputy by using his surrogates in order to appear to be above the fray.
“Mr Gachagua does stand a chance of consolidating the region behind him. History has shown the Mountain to be stubbornly independent, especially if locals feel that one of their own is being unjustifiably attacked,” said Prof Monda, who teaches at the City University of New York.
“The DP will want to paint himself as a martyr suffering at the hands of an unjust and corrupt administration. He is on record attempting to dissociate himself from the numerous unfulfilled promises of Ruto.”
He says President Ruto’s only viable plan is to bring Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) on board to back his re-election.
Even in the face of the onslaught, Mr Gachagua remains defiant, telling critics to listen to the ground or they will be punished at the ballot.
“Good leadership involves listening to the people and getting their views. I encourage leaders to be truthful. Kenyans can no longer be cheated,” he said last weekend.
“Let’s be humble and embrace servant leadership while working for Kenyans. We need to stop undermining other people. Kenyans are the taxpayers and the employers of their leaders.”
The DP has been reaching out to other political players in what is seen as a strategy in the event of a fallout with Dr Ruto.
Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has been making political inroads in Mt Kenya following Mr Odinga’s decision to work with the President.
Mr Musyoka has had political engagements in Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Embu.
Former Kiambu governor Ferdinand Waititu, an ally of Mr Gachagua, has become a constant feature in Mr Musyoka’s trips to the region.
“The association with the Mountain is natural. Every person in the Mountain is an ally. We also have key allies who are determined to walk this journey with the party leader,” Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, an ally of Mr Musyoka, said.
Prof Monda says Mr Musyoka can only gain from the region if he strikes fast and takes a clear and brave position on where he stands.
“Part of Mr Musyoka’s weakness is being indecisive. His ‘watermelon’ tendencies of wanting to hedge his bets so as to cover all his bases, has led to him missing out on opportunities at critical junctures in Kenyan history that would have advanced his interests. He has the uncanny ability of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,” he says.
“Disaffection in the Mountain is a chance to take a bold stand and realign the Kenyan political map to his favour.”
