Similar parallel talks were underway in One Kenya Alliance (OKA) aimed at blocking Dr Ruto from ascending to power.
The January 23, 2022 surprise “Earthquake” deal, unveiled at Bomas of Kenya exactly two years ago, was a culmination of behind-the-scenes manoeuvres, deceit and political betrayal as well as horse-trading.
At the time, Mr Mudavadi reserved the name Kenya Kwanza Alliance at the Office of The Registrar of Political Parties on April 6, 2021, while still engaging with his opposition allies.
All these while OKA principals — Mr Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Gideon Moi (Kanu) and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) were involved in a series of boardroom meetings, including hiring a survey firm to engage their popularity — in settling on a presidential candidate.
It has also emerged that in one of the meetings convened by former President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House, Mombasa, ODM party leader Raila Odinga reportedly said he could only sacrifice his presidential ambition for his deputy, Wycliffe Oparanya.
The OKA team was under pressure to back Mr Odinga. During the Mombasa meeting, Mr Kenyatta is quoted as having asked Mr Odinga whom among Mr Musyoka, Mr Mudavadi, Mr Moi and Mr Wetang’ula he could sacrifice his bid for. But Mr Odinga is said to have picked ODM deputy party leader Mr Oparanya, who was also in attendance. This reportedly angered some of the OKA principals.
Earthquake aftermath: Musalia Mudavadi speaks on betrayal, new deal, and presidential ambitions
Multiple interviews with individuals within President Ruto and Mr Mudavadi’s circles revealed that the latter initially lobbied for a running mate slot under Kenya Kwanza.
This ambition, however, slipped away from the former Sabatia MP after Dr Ruto conducted a simulation on the chances of a Ruto-Mudavadi ticket.
It was agreed that the running mate comes from Central Kenya because of the numbers involved as well as to avoid having a “Western ticket” – Rift Valley and Western. Galvanising Western region presented a challenge without Mr Mudavadi on the ticket.
This is said to have informed the decision to bring on board Mr Wetang’ula and to make a public declaration on a pre-election deal to hand Mr Mudavadi the Prime Cabinet Secretary’s slot —the third seniormost position in government. Mr Wetang’ula was also promised the position of National Assembly Speaker. Both leaders currently occupy those positions.
According to Mr Geoffrey Kanoti, Mr Mudavadi’s political advisor and handler, the initial plan was to have him run for president.
As part of the plan, Mr Mudavadi joined forces with Mr Musyoka, Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Moi in forming OKA.
But as the haggling over who was to fly the OKA flag amid pressure by Mr Kenyatta to have the team back Mr Odinga for the top seat, Mr Mudavadi secretly reserved Kenya Kwanza Alliance name with the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP).
“We received the letter requesting that we preserve the name Kenya Kwanza on April 6, 2021,” said Registrar of Political Parties Anne Nderitu in a letter dated April 14.
ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi (left) and William Ruto during the UDA-ANC-Ford Kenya rally in Nakuru on January 26, 2022.
Photo credit: Cheboite Kigen | Nation Media Group
Subsequent response from the ORPP indicated that: “Your application has been considered as required by law and the name Kenya Kwanza Alliance (KKA) has been approved as a name of a coalition.”
“Through me, Musalia registered Kenya Kwanza, because we knew we had to move. So all along we had OKA on one side, but under the table, we knew we had Kenya Kwanza,” said Mr Kanoti.
Signs that Mr Mudavadi would join President Ruto were clear even before the year 2021, when the country was involved in the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). Mr Mudavadi blew hot and cold throughout the process, at one point criticising proposals contained in the report while at a different point supporting them.
He would eventually append his signature, endorsing the document, giving a false perception that he would back Mr Kenyatta’s preferred candidate.
“We have had a situation where people mistook respect, courtesy and humility — the demeanour that one has. We should never try and mistake that to mean that you can 100 percent run shoulders over that particular individual,” Mr Mudavadi told “Nation” in an interview.
National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah disclosed that he was aware of the talks months before the Bomas event.
From left: Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula, Deputy President William Ruto, ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi and Jibebe’s William Kabogo at Bomas of Kenya on January 23, 2022.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
“For any intelligent politician, there are always tell-tale signs. If you go back to BBI in Bomas and listen to Musalia’s speech, those were tell-tale signs,” Mr Ichung’wah said.
“I got to know months before the ‘Earthquake’ deal. At the time there were speculations. But towards the end of 2021, that discussion began quietly for obvious reasons,” said Mr Ichung’wah.
The Kikuyu MP said the move radically altered the country’s political landscape. He said that there was a scheme to isolate Dr Ruto and make him appear as a lone ranger. He said the move by Mr Mudavadi changed the perception that no regional political supremo wanted to work with him.
“It changed the politics of our nation and I believe it played a critical role in our win as the Kenya Kwanza Alliance not just in the additional numbers that they brought for us to win, but also in terms of the perception value that they created within our coalition, and the encouragement that they gave to many others to join the coalition,” he said.
Democratic Action Party (DAP-K) said some of them in government were aware that Mr Mudavadi was having secret meetings with UDA figures, while on the other hand, he kept attending meetings with OKA, including ones convened by Mr Kenyatta.
“Some of us knew during BBI that they were with us during the day and with Ruto at night,” said Mr Wamalwa.
Mr Mudavadi, without giving a specific date, said they would talk once in a while with President Ruto before entering the deal for the 2022 presidential election.
“We’d talk once in a while on various issues but not very often on matters politics because I was running my campaign and he was running his. But closer to the ‘Earthquake’, we engaged a little more,” he said.
Mr Mudavadi mentioned the wedding between Dr Ruto’s daughter June and her husband Dr Alexander Ezenagu as one of the days that they had initial talks with the then Deputy President.
“It was an open moment to celebrate family, I got an invitation and said despite our political differences, celebrating family is important. I went and it got some people angry and some were shocked,” said Mr Mudavadi.
Mr Kanoti said that the talks began when the coast had been cleared earlier when former ANC Secretary-General Barrack Muluka and ICT Cabinet Secretary Eliud Owalo (who was a member of ANC) ditched the party and joined Dr Ruto.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi (left) and President William Ruto during a meeting with Kenya Kwanza leaders in Karen on August 17, 2022.
Photo credit: Jeff Angote | Nation Media Group
On August 18, 2021, Mr Kenyatta convened a meeting of leaders of political parties at State House in Mombasa to discuss how they would face Dr Ruto.
The meeting was attended by Mr Odinga, Mr Musyoka, Mr Mudavadi, Mr Moi and Mr Wetang’ula. Mr Oparanya was also present.
“It is that meeting that broke the pot for OKA, because Uhuru wanted everyone to support Raila. And when Raila was asked whom he would prefer if not him, he shocked everyone by mentioning Oparanya” said Mr Kanoti.
“Leadership comes from the people and the people must decide, register as voters and you will be the ones to decide who is going to be the leader of this country, not a few leaders seated somewhere and imagining they shall decide who should be Kenya’s leaders,” said Mr Mudavadi at a rally in Thika days after the Mombasa State House meeting.
Mr Mudavadi would snub a December 10, 2021, Azimio La Umoja convention at the Kasarani Stadium, which was meant to endorse Mr Odinga’s bid. Equally, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula boycotted the meeting, leaving only Gideon Moi as the only OKA principal present.
On December 26, 2021, while attending the Maragoli Cultural Festival, Mr Mudavadi indicated that his political moves into the new year would shock many.
“If you thought I am predictable in the year 2022, I am going to be extremely unpredictable. We will determine the destiny of this country. We’ll not allow anyone to choose leaders for us,” he said.
UDA Secretary-General Cleopas Malala, who was then a member of ANC and a close ally of Mr Mudavadi would organise the Cleo Malala Super Cup finals in Mumias and invited Dr Ruto as the guest of honour.
On January 21, Mr Mudavadi snubbed an OKA meeting convened in Naivasha to settle on a flagbearer for the alliance.
“There was a lot of mischief in what was taking place in Elementaita. Wiper had its NDC and nominated Kalonzo as their presidential candidate, Ford Kenya had theirs and nominated Wetang’ula, Kanu had its NDC and nominated Gideon. Doesn’t it occur to you, that the people who were rushing to make decisions in Naivasha were upto some mischief?” posed Mr Mudavadi.
But the principals emerged from their closed-door session, saying the alliance was intact.
“I do not think our brother Musalia is the type of person who would be wooed at night and not say it during the day, he says it as it is,” said Mr Musyoka at the time.
During the ANC NDC, Mr Musyoka, Mr Moi and politician Jimmi Wanjigi left Bomas in protest after Dr Ruto and UDA politicians turned up for the event.
“I saw the sitting arrangement, we checked and we were told that they were expecting William Ruto,” recalls Mr Musyoka.
“I remember telling Weta, my friend, since our brother Musalia has gone, you have a very unique opportunity to rally the Mulembe nation behind you, please don’t let that go, those were my final words to Weta. But then he similarly went back, you remember the story of Lot’s wife,” said Mr Musyoka.
Mr Wamalwa in an interview with “Nation” said that it was unfair for Mr Mudavadi to fail to disclose his agenda of working with Dr Ruto to his then OKA principals.
“I believed exactly what I said, but with a bit of hindsight, I was wrong. There were lots of consultations that were happening and I believed men and women would keep to their word. I kept my word upto today. Musalia decided to support William Ruto,” said Mr Musyoka.
During the ANC NDC, Mr Musyoka, Mr Moi and businessman cum politician Jimmy Wanjigi left Bomas in protest after Dr Ruto and UDA politicians turned up for the event.
“I saw the seating arrangement, we checked and we were told that they were expecting William Ruto,” recalls Mr Musyoka.
“I remember telling Weta, my friend, since our brother Musalia has gone, you have a very unique opportunity to rally the Mulembe nation behind you, please don’t let that go, those were my final words to Weta. But then he similarly went back, you remember the story of Lot’s wife,” said Mr Musyoka.
But Mr Mudavadi said, “You know there are people who wanted to determine who should be on my visitors' list before the Bomas event, that is impunity, it is arrogance, I have attended your NDC, and you invited who you wanted to invite, but when it is my turn to invite mine, you purport that you should determine who will be my guest.”
“The earthquake was a moment of getting people to unshackle themselves from this feeling that in Kenya’s politics, there must be a pariah, there must be the damned and those who are not,” he went on.
Mr Wamalwa in an interview with Nation said it was unfair for Mr Mudavadi to fail to disclose his agenda of working with Dr Ruto to his then OKA principals.
“I think it was quite unfair for Musalia to expose them to such because they are leaders who had said they cannot work with William Ruto so for them to have been placed in the same conference with him, they suffered a lot of discomfort and they had to leave,” said Mr Wamalwa.
