The Azimio factor in Nakuru gubernatorial race

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga may not have been popular in the vote-rich Nakuru County in the 2013 and 2017 general elections.

However, as the August 9 elections approach, Mr Odinga seems to be fast regaining the lost ground in Nakuru County. The cosmopolitan county is important to any presidential aspirant.  

The county is at a crossroads as the two dominant communities are not reading from the same political script as they had done in the two previous elections.

The county is of great political significance given its cosmopolitan nature and its position as the political nerve centre of the nation.

Mr Odinga launched his Azimio la Umoja in Nakuru last August following in the footsteps of President Uhuru Kenyatta whose TNA party and Dr Ruto's then URP sealed their merger deal to form the Jubilee alliance that propelled them to power in 2013.

Jubilee stronghold

The devolved unit is considered a Jubilee stronghold, having voted overwhelmingly for the two principals, coming second after Kiambu and delivering the highest number of votes in the 2013 and 2017 elections. Mr Odinga's popularity in Nakuru County has gathered momentum.

He is fast altering the political equation since he launched his Azimio La Umoja in a region which is still regarded as Jubilee bastion despite the frosty relations between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto.

Mr Odinga's increasing popularity among a section of the Jubilee supporters could make him the kingmaker as his supporters could easily decide who the next governor of Nakuru County becomes.

"When you allow a political bigwig like Mr Odinga to enter Jubilee bedroom that is no longer at ease, and allow him to have a big say to refresh and rearrange it, a major political paradigm shift is likely to happen and the political landscape in the rainbow county might never be the same again after August 9," said Mr George Omondi, a political analyst.

Political pundits believe ethnic numbers may sway the outcome of the gubernatorial race in the Jubilee stronghold.

At least 58 per cent of the voters are from the populous Kikuyu community while 24 per cent are Kalenjin and 18 per cent are the minority communities whose majority supports Mr Odinga.

Back UDA candidate

However, the minority bloc has been disrupted as Kenya Kwanza Alliance leaders led by ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya Moses Wetang'ula have teamed up with DP Ruto and their supporters are likely to back the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate.

The gubernatorial race is touted to be the toughest since the advent of devolution and may see incumbent Governor Lee Kinyanjui battle it out with his arch-rival Senator Susan Kihika who will be running on a UDA ticket.

But before facing Ms Kihika, Mr Kinyanjui, who will vie on the new outfit Ubuntu People's Forum (UPF) ticket, will face off with Dr Stanley Karanja of Jubilee Party in the Azimio La Umoja coalition primaries.

The entry of Dr Karanja, a scholar, in the race for the top seat appears to have rattled Mr Kinyanjui’s strategy as he will be forced to up his political game to clinch the coalition ticket.

"Mr Kinyanjui stands a better chance to clinch the Azimio La Umoja coalition ticket based on his track record. However, Dr Karanja is no political pushover as he has been tried and tested and if he convinces the Jubilee supporters at the primaries, he will give Mr Kinyanjui a good run for his money," said Mr Michael Korir, a resident of Rongai.

Political debut

In an interview with the Nation, Dr Karanja who made a political debut in 2013 in the Nakuru Town East parliamentary race before trying his luck as a running mate of former Senator James Mungai in the 2017 gubernatorial race as independent candidates said he has picked many political lessons and is ready to take the bull by the horns.

"I aim to change the way politics is done in the region as well as fostering development in this cosmopolitan county," said Dr Karanja.

 "We're likely to see a scenario where the Kikuyu votes will be the main battleground. With the community having no presidential candidate, there is likely to experience voter apathy and the candidate who will go door-to-door to convince the community to vote and wins the minority communities’ votes stands a high chance of winning the gubernatorial seat," said Mr Omondi.

Ms Kihika is a darling of the UDA supporters. She is hoping to consolidate the Kalenjin vote to raise her prospects of victory.

However, Mr Kinyanjui still enjoys support from the populous Kalenjin community and the split in the Kikuyu voting bloc means the candidate with overwhelming support from the minority communities will carry the day.

Political pundits believe the Azimio la Umoja coalition may give Governor Kinyanjui who is President Kenyatta's most trusted ally in the county another political lifeline as the first-ever governor to retain the hot seat.

"We hope to reap big if Governor Kinyanjui retains his seat on Azimio la Umoja coalition ticket. We shall go where Baba [ODM party leader] tells us to go," said Mr Hilton Abiola, ODM's Nakuru secretary.

Mr Peter Kagima said politicians claiming that President Kenyatta will not have a say in the next elections are daydreaming.

"President Kenyatta still enjoys a considerable amount of support of the Kikuyus and with his grand plans to revive Jubilee party which is in Azimio la Umoja coalition, you will be daydreaming if you think you can win the gubernatorial seat without the blessings of the President," said Mr Kagima.

Vote hunt

Mr Kinyanjui is not leaving anything to chance and has been accompanying Mr Odinga in his vote hunt across the country.

"Residents of Nakuru have every reason to support Mr Odinga as they stand to gain a lot if he forms the next government. Ubuntu People's Forum will be part of the coalition agreement unlike some parties whose leadership has no interest in the welfare of the more than two million residents of Nakuru County," said Mr Kinyanjui.

Ms Kihika has intensified campaigns, invited the DP to Nakuru several times and led a delegation of leaders of her choice to visit the DP at his Sugoi and Karen homes.

She said Nakuru will be safe under the Kenya Kwanza Coalition led by DP Ruto.

"Under the bottom-up economic model, our government will empower rural communities, small scale farmers and small traders. We shall find lasting solutions to improve the productivity and economic status of all Kenyans," said Ms Kihika in her verified Facebook post.

Dr Peter Mbae, a first time MCA, who is a close ally of the DP Ruto, said Ms Kihika has deeply penetrated the 55 Nakuru County wards.

"A strong UDA wave is sweeping the county. The majority of the former and outgoing MCAs in the Nakuru County Assembly and sitting MPs are UDA supporters. It will be an uphill task for the incumbent to retain his seat. That is the reality on the ground," said Dr Mbae who is eyeing the Subukia parliamentary seat on a UDA ticket.

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