The August 2022 General Election was one of the big gambles not just for the top protagonists William Ruto and Raila Odinga but also for key lieutenants staking their political careers on the fate of the duo.
And 100 days into the Ruto administration, key politicians who abandoned Mr Odinga at the last stretch of the campaigns are smiling all the way to the bank. Others, however, moved away from Mr Odinga before this year, having been his closest allies, including holding key positions in his party and coalitions.
And now, as he reflects on the race, Mr Odinga, who has had a three-decade political stint and who on two occasions—in 2007 and 2022—came close to rising to the country's top seat, insists he is not hanging his boots yet.
“I will not bow down to pressure from anyone who wants me to retire. There are people who want me to go back to Bondo. What they don’t know is that I know the road leading to Bondo better than they do,” Mr Odinga said in Oyugis, Homa Bay County, on Monday.
National Assembly Minority leader Opiyo Wandayi yesterday told the Nation that not everybody can be part of the government, adding that the opposition has a role to play for the betterment of Kenya.
“So the struggle cannot end. This is a movement. If everybody joins the government, then who will defend the interests of the citizenry?” he asked, adding opposition is crucial to advancing the cause of the people. “Therefore the struggle is a continuing programme and we are in it to the end. We may not actually see the end of it but the future generations will see it.”
Mr Odinga had christened his campaign as one leading his supporters to the promised land (Canaan), a destination full of milk and honey from biblical teachings, where they would find peace and good life. His dream remains elusive, but the Azimio leader maintains there is still hope.
Politicians who were key players in Mr Odinga's circles who are positioned in critical positions in Dr Ruto's government are Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi , National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula , his Senate counterpart Amason Kingi, Cabinet Secretaries, Ababu Namwamba (Sports), Eliud Owalo (ICT), Aisha Jumwa (Public Service), Salim Mvurya (Mining) and Alfred Mutua (Foreign Affairs).
Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangúla and his Senate counterpart Amason Kingi, Attorney General Justin Muturi and Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Alfred Mutua at Kasarani Stadium on September 13, 2022, during President William Ruto's inauguration.
Photo credit: File I Nation Media Group
The case of Dr Mutua and Mr Kingi can be argued to have been the riskiest gamble of all. Just as Mr Odinga had put together a dream lineup of 26 parties under retired President Uhuru Kenyatta-backed Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition party, the pair, under three months to the polls, jumped ship, accusing Azimio of betrayal and disrespect.
Dr Mutua specifically accused Azimio of sneaking a zoning document into the earlier pact they had signed and that they had refused to make the document available for scrutiny despite five demand letters. He said they had been excluded from the Azimio lineup, campaign programmes and funding and were not being told what their post-election roles would be.
“It’s quite unfortunate that Azimio has become a club for the few as others stare through the window as they eat. We’ve been sidelined during decisions. Raila only called for a meeting to placate us, but nothing changed,” Dr Mutua protested as he exited Azimio on May 10.
Mr Kingi, on the other hand, accused Mr Odinga's camp of lacking good faith. Prior to his defection, he had served as Kilifi governor for two terms under ODM. The Azimio supremo questioned why he was rebelling to form the Pamoja African Alliance just when he was almost finishing his second term. Earlier, Mr Kingi, while still Magarini MP, also rose, courtesy of Mr Odinga to become a Cabinet Minister under the Grand Coalition Government when the ODM leader was Prime Minister.
Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang'ula dumped Mr Odinga after initial attempts by Mr Kenyatta to persuade them to back Mr Odinga hit a brick wall, as they cited betrayal by the ODM leader and led their troops to the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, a development the Prime CS described as an “earthquake”. They gave Dr Ruto a fresh impetus in a move he continuously said during the campaigns “will not go unrewarded”.
Both Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang'ula were principals in Nasa, with Mr Odinga as the first among equals and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as the running mate.
Mr Wetang'ula, unlike Mr Mudavadi, had also backed Mr Odinga in the 2013 presidential election under Cord but fell out with him after the 2017 elections when he was hounded out of the Senate minority leader position and replaced with then-Siaya Senator James Orengo (now the county’s governor).
At the time, the National Assembly Speaker warned Mr Odinga of a “messy and noisy political divorce that would have casualties”. His threat came to pass following the ODM chief’s election loss and Mr Wetang'ula's rise to the head of legislature position, making him the third in command in government after Dr Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as per the Constitution.
President William Ruto (centre) with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi (left) and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula in Nairobi on April 9, 2022.
Photo credit: Jeff Angote | Nation Media Group
Political analyst Dismas Mokua faults Mr Odinga for what he terms as having “a very high appetite for burning political bridges”.
“He does not maintain or reward diamond-quality talent in his camp. That is why Pentagon, Cord and Nasa disintegrated,” argues Mr Mokua.
The majority of Kenya’s top leaders today, Mr Mokua says, has a history with Mr Odinga, but the ODM leader has “challenges managing principals and voters expectations”.
“Successful politicians must understand and manage principals’ and stakeholders’ expectations. Pentagon, Cord and Nasa are chapters in Kenya’s political history because of poor expectation management,” he says.
Mr Mudavadi is now on a mission to mobilise the Western region, which traditionally voted for Mr Odinga, to his fold as he prepares his daggers for the 2032 presidential duel—presumed to be a Ruto succession battle.
“We have seen the North Star after the election. The North Star is the government that is in place now. This is where we should lay our support,” said Mr Mudavadi.
Mr Namwamba, on the other hand, rose to be a powerful secretary general in Mr Odinga's ODM. And just like Mr Namwamba, Mr Owalo was a close ally of Mr Odinga, leading his presidential campaign secretariat in 2013. He resigned from ODM in 2019, noting that his move was informed by the fact that “my political ideology, convictions and belief no longer has convergence or depict any congruence and common denominator with that of the ODM party, its value orientation and practices.”
Mr Owalo said then that, as a result, “there is no iota of enthusiasm remaining in me to warrant my continued stay in the party,” before he jumped ship to Mr Mudavadi's Amani National Congress (ANC) to run for the Kibra MP, a race he lost and subsequently defected to Dr Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in 2020. The ICT Cabinet Secretary has been traversing the Nyanza region distributing relief food to a section of residents while wooing them to embrace the government and shun opposition.
President William Ruto (left) is welcomed to Homa Bay by ICT Cabinet Secretary Eliud Owalo on October 2, 2022.
Photo credit: PCS
“It is time for development. Politics has already been overtaken by events. The ongoing distribution of relief food should not be construed as politics,” Mr Owalo said.
“All we are doing is aimed at benefitting the people. The elected leaders should not shy away from working with the government in the implementation of development projects.”
Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, Mr Odinga’s former chief of staff during his days as Prime Minister, has joined Mr Owalo on his Nyanza tours, arguing “the national government remains with the largest share of the Budget and resources, hence it is prudent for elected leaders to cooperate with it to promote development.”
“I don’t need anybody’s permission to work with the government. My intention is to work with the people who can help me transform the lives of Suba South residents,” he said at a recent event with Mr Owalo.
Mr Duale, Ms Jumwa, Mr Mvurya and State House Deputy Chief of Staff Nanok have also worked with Mr Odinga in the past. Mr Duale was first elected to Parliament on an ODM party ticket in 2007, while Ms Jumwa rose to become the Kilifi woman representative in 2013 on the ODM ticket.
Mr Mvurya was also elected the first governor of Kwale County in 2013 under ODM before he joined Jubilee and subsequently UDA. Mr Nanok, on the other hand, was ODM vice chairperson for nearly seven years.
Even so, Mr Mokua says Mr Odinga has an impressive political trajectory in Kenya, with most top politicians in the country having associated with him. “In fact, one can say Mr Odinga has mentored many politicians and runs a successful political school. However, he has several challenges as he strives to be president as he lacks the killer instinct, having failed to demonstrate a ruthless determination to succeed or win a presidential election,” the political analyst said.
