Secret plot to cut ODM leader Raila Odinga down to size

In terms of strategy, an emboldened Mr Mudavadi — if the Matungu parliamentary by-election where the ANC candidate Peter Nabulindo trounced Mr David Were of ODM is anything to go by — is expected to lock Mr Odinga out of the western region, a significant vote he has always relied on in his State House quest over the years.

Handshake

Mr Wetang’ula, the senator from Bungoma, has been tasked to consolidate parts of the region that may be lukewarm in their support for Mr Mudavadi. The thinking is that with county assemblies having endorsed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), it would be inconsequential for Mr Odinga to recall his troops and subsequently disengage from the handshake he has with President Uhuru Kenyatta.

To consolidate his Ukambani political base, Mr Musyoka has declared war on two governors — Dr Alfred Mutua of Machakos and his Makueni counterpart Kivutha Kibwana — whom he accuses of forging a working alliance with Mr Odinga in a plan to divide the region’s vote.

“The ODM leader is attempting to craft a new alliance with non-starters namely Kibwana, Mutua and Mukhisa, in order to undermine his former Nasa principals in their strongholds, is an alliance dead on thought,” Mr Musyoka said.

Jubilee Party Vice-Chairman David Murathe, Mr Kenyatta’s confidante, said there is nothing unusual if there is such scheming even as he maintained that he supports Mr Odinga to be the next president.

He said that while it may appear they are pulling in different directions with One Kenya Alliance, the two camps will eventually team up before the elections.

“It is highly likely that One Kenya Alliance will link up with Jakom (Mr Odinga). It is in their best interest to work together, the other one (reference to Deputy President William Ruto) does not have the best interest of the country at heart. Through Jakom as President, the country will experience its Mandela moment,” Mr Murathe said.

Zoning formula

The zoning formula adopted by the backers of the budding alliance is to ensure that Mr Odinga is only confined to his Nyanza backyard with insignificant votes in other areas ahead of the next General Election.

Coast, Lower Eastern and the Mulembe nation (Luhyaland) are, according to the strategy, projected to have turned their backs on Mr Odinga. But they are also aware that the former Prime Minister is no pushover.

An insider told the Nation that their hope is that the ODM leader’s political magnet is losing power after his dalliance with the President and he will be the one proposing a deal, in which case he would be holding the shorter end of the stick.

One Kenya Alliance now has the backing of the “system” and had, before the recent Covid-19 restrictions, been receiving significant support to hold meetings across the country.

On Saturday, ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna said that while the handshake had got nothing to do with 2022 elections, it was wrong for “influential bureaucrats” in government to use their powers to guide the Uhuru succession.

“We know they are lining up certain individuals to take over power next year. This is wrong, what we want is a level playing ground for all those who want to contest,” Mr Sifuna said.

Kitchen Cabinet split

However, the strategy to isolate Mr Odinga in the succession race has split the President’s kitchen Cabinet as some, like Mr Murathe, insisting the former prime minister was the right person to take over next year.

Last week on Tuesday, Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya met the President at State House, a meeting we gathered touched on developmental concerns at the Coast as well as the future of the country’s politics.

“Today Fatuma Achani and I had the privilege to have a meeting with President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House Nairobi. We have discussed issues pertaining to the development of our county, and matters of national importance,” the governor said.

Mr Mvurya would lead his counterparts from the region Hassan Joho (Mombasa) and Amason Kingi (Kilifi) the next day into meeting with Mr Kenyatta at State House with aides kept at bay.

One of the county chiefs told us that the meetings were a culmination of months of consultations that will pave way for a ‘new order’ and change the country’s politics for forever.

Coast political party

Mr Kingi, who has been vocal about the need to have a political party for the Coast, is expected to unveil it in the coming weeks. He is expected to be the party leader. Governor Joho, one of the staunchest supporters of Mr Odinga and his deputy in the Orange party, is said to be cautious but is not opposed to the new order that is also meant to deny the former PM an important support base.

Inspired by the truism of killing two birds with one stone, the new found alliance is also meant to check the deputy president’s inroads at the Coast.

The second in command has since, politically, fallen out with his boss.

Even then, the fact that Interior PS Karanja Kibicho would come out in the open to dismiss ODM leaders who had demanded his removal from the BBI secretariat, is a sign that things may have fallen apart.

Politicians led by National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed recently accused Mr Kibicho of taking over the work of the secretariat he co-chairs with former Dagoreti MP Denis Waweru through “a parallel command system and causing political constipation".

Mass defection

In the works is also to occasion mass defection of MPs from ODM to portray Mr Odinga as losing clout in his primary base. The same is targeted at DP Ruto.

When Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa recently said he was taking a sabbatical from politics, what was interpreted to mean defection from Dr Ruto’s Tangatanga movement, an insider pointed that more are lined up. One Kenya Alliance is supposed to be the beneficiary of the defections.

The affiliated parties to the alliance are also expected to open more branches across the country to give them some oomph.

The next target, we gathered, will be wealthy businesspeople who have supported the former premier over the years. The aim will be to win them over and those adamant may face the wrath of the ‘system’.

But in the face of raging fire in his camp, Mr Odinga, who is recovering after testing positive for Covid-19, is urging his lieutenants to stay calm insisting that the handshake with Mr Kenyatta was still intact if not salvageable.

Mr Odinga’s camp is split into two, those who want him to work with DP Ruto and those opposed to it.

A lawmaker, also a lawyer is leading the group of those in favour of the DP while the other team is opposed to the move they say may diminish Mr Odinga’s reform credentials.

Equally, in DP’s corner, there are those who cannot wait to join forces with Mr Odinga not only for déjà vu purposes but also as a way of revenging the ‘betrayal’ by the President who they believe would never have ascended to power were it not for DP’s support.

“If the President can work with the opposition leader, then we cannot rule out Dr Ruto working with Raila in the coming elections. They once worked in the pentagon and they know each other well,” a Ruto ally and Emurrua Dikir MP Johanna Ng’eno said.

A confidante of the President's inner circle, however, intimated that the Head of State may not be the driver of a plot to isolate Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga in the succession matrix in as much as his manoeuvres say otherwise.

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