Trial by mathematics: Five MPs could decide Ruto’s fate

The DP enjoys the support of 121 legislators, a number that is enough to scuttle any attempt to impeach him at a time when his relationship with President Kenyatta is at its lowest since they were first elected in 2013.

While Jubilee Party vice-chairman David Murathe has openly backed an impeachment motion, promoters of the idea would have to work harder to succeed.

Under the Constitution, the National Assembly initiates the impeachment process while the Senate conducts the trial and votes to remove from office either the President or his deputy.

The National Assembly requires two-thirds majority to impeach the DP, which translates to 233 MPs. The flipside is that 117 lawmakers are sufficient to stop such a motion.

Tangatanga camp

With at least 121 MPs loyal to the Tangatanga camp, the pro-impeachment team would have to lure at least five legislators to tilt the balance in the House and set in motion the Senate trial.

The assumption, however, is that the other members outside the Tangatanga axis also play ball, without abstentions, in the zero-sum game.

Given the high stakes around such a motion, it would be expected that the DP, too, would go flat out to win over more allies, other than the 121 who wrote letters to the registrar of parties in solidarity with the DP when he protested some Jubilee changes. 

In the trial, 45 out of the 67 senators are required to send Dr Ruto home. He only needs the support of 22 senators to survive, and with 20 firmly behind him, it won’t be smooth sailing there, either.

As they tackle the mathematics, President Kenyatta’s camp has set out on the much easier path: to tame him in the ruling Jubilee Party.

The plot was set in motion last year with a purge on House leadership, which essentially was aimed at upsetting the balance of power in the National Executive Committee (NEC).

The Majority Leader and Chief Whip sit in NEC. Other changes that Ruto protested targeted the membership of the National Management Committee (NMC). He failed to block the changes.

President's allies

On Monday, the NMC – now dominated by the President’s allies – recommended the removal of the DP as Jubilee Party deputy leader on account of sabotage, dereliction of duty and promoting the ideals of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Yesterday, following another meeting of NMC, Jubilee Party officials declared the decision by NMC to kick out DP Ruto from his position as deputy party leader was a foregone conclusion, only awaiting the Head of State to convene a top party organ to ratify it.

Party chairman Nelson Dzuya and vocal vice-chairman David Murathe yesterday said the Head of State holds the cards on the fate of his estranged deputy’s tenure in the party’s leadership.

“NMC sat in October last year and made a resolution to remove Dr Ruto from his post as Jubilee deputy party leader. That resolution stands. Once the NMC sits, we set the agenda for the National Executive Council (NEC) which can either adopt, review or throw out the decision of the NMC. That is the only thing we are waiting for,” Mr Dzuya told the Nation yesterday.

“It is Ruto that has kicked himself out of Jubilee. How can you remove somebody who has removed himself? It is obvious. NMC did its job. We are just awaiting ratification by NEC,” Mr Murathe said.

With his allies having been thrown out of NEC, the odds are stacked against him, should the President convene the NEC to consider the recommendation.

In the National Assembly, MPs Rigathi Gachagua (Mathira), Kimani Ichungwa (Kikuyu) and Alice Wahome (Kandara) have been the DP’s fiercest defenders.

Others are Moses Kuria, Patrick Munene, Muriuki Njagagu, Ndidi Nyoro and John Kiarie.

They have been present every time the DP has summoned crisis meetings to either issue orders or to chart the so-called Hustler Nation’s political future in the face of a sustained onslaught from the State.

Tangatanga legislators - National Assembly

John Kiarie KJ

Kimani Ichungwa

Nixon Korir

Joash Nyamoko

Caleb Kositany

Aaron Cheruiyot

Patrick Munene

Muriuki Njagagua

Moses Kuria

Cornelly Serem

Kangogo Bowen

William Kisang

Shadrack Mose

Purity Ngirici

G K Kariuki

Nelson Koech

Cornelly Serem

Mugambi Mugwithania

Beatrice Nkatha

Aden Duale

Rigathi Gachagua

Adan Ali

Silvanus Maritim

David Pkosing

Didimus Barasa

Daniel Rono

Kuria Kimani

Michael Muchira

Geoffrey King’ang’i

Kwenya Thuku

Kareke Mbiuki

Jane Chebaibai

George Sunkuiya

Rahab Mukami

Cecily Mbarire

Anab Gure

Brighton Yegon

Jayne Kihara

Ronald Tonui

Benjamin Washiali

Alice Wahome

Ahmed Kolosh

Hilary Kosgei

Florence Bore

Halima Mucheke

Githua Wamacukuru

Gideon Keter

Mutai Bureti

Maisori Marwa Kitayama

Chris Nakuleu

Mathias Robi

Charles Kamuren

Mwalimu Joseph Tonui

Beatrice kones.

Dr Daniel Tuitoek

Haika Mzighi

John Waluke

Martha Wangari

Nimrod Mbai

Faith Wairimu Gitau

Patrick Mariru

Soipan Tuya

Ndindi Nyoro

Lisa Wanjiru Chelule

Moses Lessonet

Oscar Sudi

Dominic Koskei

Kiprop Mishra

Rehema Jaldessa

Charity Kathambi

Samuel Moroto

Moses Cheboi

Gladys Boss Shollei

Wakili Wambugu

Kimani Ngunjiri

Robert Pukose

Shariff Ali

Kago wa Lydia

Joyce Korir

Jonah Mburu

Major Donq

Muchangi Karemba

David Sankok

Peter Lochakapong

George Theuri

Ken Aramat

Ali Wario

Victor Munyaka

Kubai Iringo

Tecla Tum

Joseph Limo

John Muchiri

William Cheptumo

Mwangi Gakuya

Julius Melly

Samuel Gachobe

Malulu Injedi

James Gichuhi

Col (Rtd) Dido Rasso

Joyce Emanikor

James Lomenen

Daniel Epuyo

Anthony Kiai

James Murgor

Katoo Ole Metito

Wilson Kogo

Dan Wanyama

David Kiaraho

David Gikaria

Korei Ole Lemein

Lilian Tomitom

Rahim Dawood

Moses Nguchine Kirima

Benard Shinali

Aloise Lentomanga

Simon Nganga Kingara

Qalicha Gufu

Fred Kapondi Chesebe

Githinji Gichimu

Mary Wamaua

Maj Bashir Abdullahi

Senate

Kipchumba Murkomen

Prof Kithure Kindiki

Susan Kihika

Beatrice Omanga

Eng Abubakar Hargura

Mithika Linturi

Philip Mpayei

Michael Mbito

John Kinyua

Christopher Langat

NAOMI WAQO

Cherargei Kiprotich

Anwar Loitiptip

Victor Prengei

Christine Zawadi

Mary Seneta

Lelegwe Ltumbesi

Falhada Iman

Maalim Mahmud