UDA gamble: Will Ruto succeed where other parties failed? Case of Men in Black that nearly ruined ODM

At the heart of the gamble by the President would be how to navigate the political interests in Mt Kenya involving his deputy Rigathi Gachagua, whose focus in the December grassroots election would be to plant his loyalists in key party positions.

Apart from having his allies in strategic positions for purposes of securing party tickets for his loyalists for the 2027 polls, Mr Gachagua also has his eye on succeeding President Ruto in the party leadership.

He would want his people in the party’s key decision-making organs for purposes of taking over when President Ruto’s term expires. This would help him avoid being kicked out of the outfit as it happened to Dr Ruto following his falling out with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Some of these interests can only be achieved at the expense of cutting down to size certain individuals in what has the potential of having some key allies of the President jump ship to other outfits where their 2027 re-election can be guaranteed.

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While addressing the UDA National Governing Council delegates recently, President Ruto said that he is aware that the planned exercise has the potential to trigger an implosion. But he noted that having it early enough will give the party enough time to deal with the aftermath.

Senior officials in the party yesterday told the Nation that the party is pulling all the strings to ensure the exercise is free and fair to avoid any falling out. They also said they will have close to four years to deal with wounds stemming from the elections.

“It is better to have them (party elections) now than close to the election so that if it gets messy, we can deal with the consequences,” President Ruto said.

Party elections have in the past turned divisive and chaotic, resulting in major fallouts, which has made many parties in the country to avoid holding elections. Most have since resorted to consensus and use of the electoral college method in picking party officials.

An attempt by the Raila Odinga-led ODM in 2014 to hold party elections at the Kasarani stadium aborted after a group of youth, famously known as ‘men in black’, stormed the venue and scuttled the exercise.

It later emerged that the youth were hired by some senior party officials to avert what they claimed was an attempt by some external forces to take over the party by planting their proxies in key positions.

ODM has since then shunned holding party elections, instead choosing to use delegates and other non-adversarial methods.

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In 2021, ODM engaged in consensus building in counties to pick party officials, which culminated in an NGC in Nairobi.

In Jubilee, Mr Kenyatta declined to call for party elections even as his then deputy sustained pressure for party members to participate in electing officials.

The outfit that was formed in the run up to the 2017 General Election installed interim officials with plans to hold elections within three years.

“All interim party officials shall serve for a term not exceeding three years from the date of the appointment unless he/she is elected as provided under this constitution,” states the Jubilee Party constitution.

But Mr Kenyatta refused to call the elections after it emerged that Dr Ruto was plotting a takeover of the party in preparation for his 2022 presidential bid.

What followed was a purge that saw allies of Dr Ruto kicked out from key decision-making organs like the National Executive Council and the Central Management Committee.

Allies

Mr Kenyatta would later, after kicking out President Ruto’s sympathisers, hold the party’s National Delegates Conference where his allies were installed in key party positions. Jeremiah Kioni was picked to replace Raphael Tuju as the party secretary-general.

Registrar of Political Parties Anne Nderitu told the Nation that most parties have opted to carry out their elections through consensus or electoral colleges. This, she said, was less adversarial compared to universal suffrage where party members cast ballots to elect their officials.

“Most parties do it for compliance purposes. Using universal suffrage has somehow become problematic because of its competitive nature. Some now embrace consensus or the use of the electoral college,” Ms Nderitu explained.

But UDA officials yesterday expressed confidence the planned exercise will be a success.

Secretary-General Cleophas Malala said they will make sure the exercise is free and fair to prevent any disgruntlement by members.

He said some of the parties that have had their elections abort did not have a clear list of delegates.

“They didn’t have clear delegates coming to vote. Starting from the grassroots all the way up, we shall be streamlining our registers as we move up. The people who will participate in the voting will be bona fide national delegates of the party,” said Mr Malala.

He added that the party has made a deliberate decision to have a digital election to avoid any possible manipulation of the members’ register.

Mr Malala further explained that the exercise will start at the polling station before progressing to ward, constituency, county and finally national level.

“Other parties failed because they went directly to the national delegates conference instead of starting from the grassroots. We are ready for anything as we must carry out elections. We will contain any fallout and there are also areas we will have consensus to harmoniseg the list to reflect the diversity,” he added.

UDA plans to recruit and train returning officers to carry out the exercise that will culminate in the election of a total of 580,000 party officials.

Kakemega Senator and Senate Majority Leader Boni Khalwale said the timing of the exercise will give the party ample time to deal with any possible fallout.

“If you do grassroots elections too close to the year of the General Election, you can never get it right. So we have gotten it right,” said Dr Khalwale.

“We have time to cure injuries that will be sustained in the process. I can assure you, just like in previous elections, it’s going to be very hot. And what makes it worse is that in our constitution, the people who are going to become delegates are the ones who are going to vote for the candidates,” he added.

Nominations

Dr Khalwale explained that only party delegates would participate in the election, and that nominations will be done by delegates and not by universal suffrage.

“There is also the issue of transparency. If we don’t get it right, then the consequences will not be any different from what has happened in the past. It is a litmus test. But if we get the transparency aspect right, then there will be no fallouts. The reason why people resort to fallouts is usually because they are dissatisfied,” he added.

Similar views were expressed by Mathira MP Eric Mwangi, who said that the decision to start from the polling station would make party members own the process and the elected officials.

“We will be successful because we are starting from the polling station while others have allowed people to come from Nairobi and go vie for party positions in mashinani (grassroots), but in ours, we are making it possible for those people who are in a polling station to elect their leader who lives there,” said Mr Mwangi.

He added: “We are taking leaders from polling station to ward level to constituency, county to national level. We’ve streamlined it in such a way that every party member will feel included. So we expect no wrangles because everyone will have a space.”

The party on Friday made amendments to include more politicians in its leadership hierarchy. President Ruto proposed to amend Article 5 of its constitution and add deputy governors to the governors caucus to ensure the inclusion of all elected leaders in various party organs.