President William Ruto’s State House meeting on Monday laid bare jitters among leaders within the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) over the possibility of being sacrificed to accommodate new allies.
At the heart of the fears are the demands from other parties being engaged by the ruling party in pre-election negotiations, with the entry of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in the President’s 2027 re-election matrix at the center of the unfolding unease.
The demand for a running mate position by ODM as an irreducible minimum in the ongoing pre-2027 elections pact talks has sent jitters among the rank and file of the ruling UDA.
Eyeing the powerful position, second only to the president in case of a presidential victory, as its irreducible minimum in the expected talks, the Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga-led ODM has the potential of making Deputy President Kithure Kindiki the first casualty of the UDA-ODM 2027 talks.
Further, ODM has also insisted on more seats, including those of Cabinet secretaries and principal secretaries, demands that would mean more allies of President Ruto currently holding the lofty positions being sacrificed to create room for new entrants.
But also causing another jitter is fears of reduced influence around the President by UDA leaders who have enjoyed close proximity to power since the former Eldoret North MP assumed office in September 2022.
Having a space in the President’s kitchen Cabinet always comes with significant political and economic benefits and the fears are that bending backwards to ODM demands will mean displacement to the periphery.
Lending credence to the growing unease, UDA National Chairperson Cecily Mbarire set the tone during the National Governing Council meeting by openly making a case for the retention of DP Kindiki as Dr Ruto’s running mate come 2027.
The Embu governor hailed choosing Professor Kindiki to succeed impeached deputy president Rigathi Gachagua as the best decision the Head of State made.
The first-term county boss said Mr Kindiki has given the ruling regime a fresh impetus that the President missed when he had Mr Gachagua as his deputy.
“We confirm here that this (choosing Kindiki) is the best decision you ever made. You (Kindiki) have given the President the much-needed support he has lacked in the last two years. You (Kindiki) have the support of the entire UDA and the affiliates,” said Governor Mbarire.
“The deputy president has given us fresh impetus with the fire si fire slogan. He has also been crisscrossing the entire country talking about government projects without fear,” she added.
However, no politician’s plea was more pronounced as Tana River’s Senator Danson Mungatana who expressed fears “children of the house” might be forgotten in the ongoing negotiations with ODM.
He pleaded with the President to constitute a team, as part of negotiations with ODM, that will represent the worries of “the children from the house”.
“As we go into structured negotiations. We the children of the House are very worried because sometimes the people who have been in the house tend to be sidelined when the other children from outside come inside,” said Mr Mungatana.
“We don’t know the team that is being constituted by our party to go into the negotiations, but in as much as we support you, please remember the children of the house,” he added.
The lawmaker said their worries are borne out of ODM already having been appointed to the helm of lucrative ministries and State departments as part of the broad-based government pact with the late ODM party leader Raila Odinga.
“When we see nice ministries and other things going to the other side, people would worry. They don’t tell you but they worry,” said Senator Mungatana.
ODM and UDA have been engaged in coalition talks with UDA with a view to forming the next government following a resolution of ODM’s Central Management Committee two weeks ago to initiate the negotiations, saying the party cannot afford to wait to begin preparations for the 2027 elections.
Charged with spearheading the talks, Dr Oburu said ODM is ready for a formal, negotiated arrangement that reflects its political weight and historical grievances.
For its part, UDA responded to the invitation for the coalition talks with ODM by giving a green light for structured negotiations after endorsement by a special national executive council meeting more than a week ago.
The two parties are expected to jointly form a technical team to be tasked with beginning the talks that would include fronting a joint presidential candidate and sharing of positions. ODM has since indicated its intention to back Dr Ruto’s re-election, but has laid claim on the running mate slot.
As part of the re-organisation of the government at the height of the bloody Gen Z anti-government protests, President Ruto incorporated five cabinet secretaries from ODM with John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi taking the helm of the lucrative National Treasury, and Energy and Petroleum dockets, respectively.
Other new entrants were former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho (Mining), former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya (MSME and Cooperatives) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community, Asals, and Regional Development).
This is in addition to more than 10 principal secretaries who were also incorporated from the ODM side.
But the jitters by the leaders are not far-fetched because normally when such negotiations are initiated, seats are being canvassed as part of such talks, either before or after elections.
The 2008 Serena talks saw some casualties in the crafting of the grand coalition government with the late Dr Wilfred Machage and Asman Kamama paying the price of give and take in such talks.
In December last year, ODM set out new conditions for backing President Ruto’s re-election, saying any support must be matched by increased representation in government.
Speaking during the fifth Piny Luo Festival in Migori County, Senator Oburu said the party’s electoral strength should translate into a commensurate share of Cabinet slots and senior government appointments.
“When we fight for the election together, we must be part and parcel of each other. We shall form the government together and gain more positions as we grow stronger as a party,” said Dr Oginga.
A month earlier in November, the Siaya senator had declared the party would not settle for anything less than a deputy president’s seat in 2027.
In an effort to calm the growing jitters, President Ruto assured his party members that the negotiations will not lead to a win-loss scenario but a win-win one.
He also made it clear that the Presidential seat is still with the party despite incorporating ODM into the broad-based government, while also saying he has made sure all the appointments made are balanced.
“With all the negotiations that have happened so far, the President is still in UDA. I don’t think there is any bigger position that you can think about than that of the president,” said the Commander-in-Chief.
“We have made sure we have balanced all the other positions appropriately. There will be give and take as is in any negotiations. But as you have said, we are going to be careful to ensure that that is win-win and not win-lose, that is the position,” he added.
However, the President sidestepped the topic of the deputy president, a move that could suggest the position is open for negotiations with new allies.
“What we have agreed with the leadership of ODM, that we explore the option and opportunity of having a coalition going into the next election and it is because we want to broaden our base. Listen to me guys, this election, we want to win by a margin of between two and three million,” he said.
