The ongoing 2027 political realignments have eroded the popularity of the ruling UDA and its broad-based partner, ODM, in some of their traditional bases, a new survey shows.
Although the two outfits remain the most popular in the country, they have lost significantly in some of the areas where they enjoyed overwhelming backing in the run-up to the 2022 polls.
According to the survey, UDA enjoys a paltry 9 per cent backing in Mt Kenya, in a sharp contrast to the overwhelming support in the run up to the last elections. Mt Kenya and the Rift Valley formed Dr Ruto’s political backbone in the 2022 presidential race.
The 10 Mt Kenya counties and the seven from the North Rift collectively handed him 4.5 million votes, which translated to 63 per cent of his total votes. Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Nakuru collectively gave Dr Ruto nearly three million votes.
But this has since shifted as DCP now emerges as the most popular party in the region at 33 per cent. A majority at 36 per cent remains undecided.
UDA’s largest support comes from North Eastern at 45 per cent, Rift Valley (39) and the Coast (29). In Western, UDA boasts 18 per cent approval, Eastern (16), Nyanza (13) and Nairobi at 8 per cent.
ODM, on the other hand, has had its popularity drop from 38 per cent in September 2024 to the current 21 per cent approval rating. The broad–based government arrangement has been a major point of political differences within the party.
The late Raila Odinga entered into the deal with President Ruto following the June 2024 Gen Z protests. The emergence of Linda Mwanachi, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, is largely linked to the political deal. The Linda Mwananchi camp is opposed to Dr Ruto’s re-election.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, address a crowd at Mazembe Grounds in Nakuru City on April 19, 2026 where he led the Linda Mwananchi team for a rally. They supported planned Tuesday protest against the high cost of fuel.
Photo credit: File | Nation
ODM remains strong in Nyanza at 50 per cent, Coast (46), Western (32), North Eastern (23), Nairobi (16), Rift Valley (11), Eastern (7) and Central (6).
The figures reflect the ongoing realignments and impending mass defections from some of the major parties.
Kenya has in the past polls witnessed major defections, with leaders shifting to new parties to boost their chances of re-election. Some of the defections are occasioned by political fallouts, while others are a result of fresh political realignments and regional dynamics.
In ODM, MPs allied to the Linda Mwananchi faction have announced their intention to unveil a new party in readiness for next year’s elections. Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, another ODM member, has since identified himself with the People's Renaissance Movement (PM Party).
Other ODM leaders set to quit ODM and join the yet-to-be-unveiled party include Mr Sifuna, Mr Osotsi, Wilberforce Oundo (Funyala), Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), and Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South). Others are Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka and Kitutu Masaba MP Clive Gisairo.
UDA has also suffered major setbacks in the populous Mt Kenya, as majority of its elected leaders begin to openly align with Democracy for the Citizen Party (DCP) of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Muranga County Governor Irungu Kang'ata.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
Others like Murang’a Governor Irungu Kang'ata and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro have also announced their plans not to defend their seats on UDA. The two have, however, not declared the party they would run on.
In the 2022 polls, Dr Ruto swept to power by winning the backing of the popular Mr Kenya support. He polled close to three million votes. But that has since changed. Several leaders from the region have announced they would not run on the ticket.
"The UDA party has abandoned Kenyans, and that is the reason all of us moved away from the governing party. All of us have left the party," said Mr Nyoro.
Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro during an interview outside the National Assembly on June 11, 2026.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
The MP, who served as the National Assembly’s Budget and Appropriations chairperson before falling out with Dr Ruto, has since become one of the fiercest critics of the administration.
"There is no more person on top of a wheelbarrow or taking a wheelbarrow anywhere, here in our place, even across the country,” he said.
He said the question currently being asked in the region was not about whether to back UDA in 2027, but about charting a new political path with the people.
"So the decision we are making is not about whether to support a wheelbarrow or not or where. That decision was made a long time ago. A leader must never make such an important decision because they are being pushed. Kenyans must be at the centre of every political decision we make," said the MP.
Some of the leaders from the region have since identified with Mr Gachagua’s DCP. They include senators John Methu (Nyandarua), Joe Nyutu (Murang’a), Karungo Thang’wa (Kiambu) and James Murango. Others are MPs Benjamin Gathiru alias Mejja Donk (Embakasi Central), James Gakuya (Embakasi North), Edward Muriu (Gatanga).
Mr Muriu told the Nation that UDA has since become so unpopular in the region that most of the current elected leaders stand to lose should they defend their seats in the ruling party. He said MPs who backed Mr Gachagua’s impeachment in October 2024 have found themselves in the horns of a major political dilemma as they fear joining the DCP to secure their careers. He said some of them are now scouting for small parties in the region that have an association with the United Opposition for political survival.
“Many of them know very well that they will not be elected via the UDA party. Their die is cast because they cannot dare defect to DCP since they participated in his impeachment. If they do, their fate is predetermined,” said Mr Muriu.
“They may wish to join the Jubilee Party, hoping it will be their parachute from Ruto and UDA. With the looming creation of a giant Coalition party bringing all opposition parties together, the head of the central command on Mountain matters and the nominations of candidates there remains Gachagua,” he added.
He claimed of an attempt by some of the leaders to register new parties to offer them a political lifeline in the face of hostility against UDA in the region.
“There are other small parties which are being launched by the same Ruto followers and their associates with an objective to give those members tickets to vie if all the others fail.
He said those proxy outfits are well known, and people warned of backing their candidates in the 2027 polls.
Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
In Western, Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale has also unveiled a new party for his 2027 ambition.
In an interview with the Nation, Dr Khalwale confirmed his links to the United Patriotic Movement (UPM). According to the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP), the new outfit has met all the requirements for registration and is awaiting full registration.
“UPM is a national party and will have who is who in the political space in this country who is advancing the one-term agenda. Exciting times are coming, and this is the party of the future, not only in Western alone but nationally. That is why I can confirm I'm associated with it,” said the senator.
In DAP-K, Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula and Kiminini MP Bisau Kakai are some of the leaders who have declared their intention to run on UDA in 2027. The two leaders attended a UDA aspirants’ meeting held at State House in February.
East African Legislative Assembly MP Kanini Kega.
Photo credit: File I Nation Media Group
Kanini Kega, who was sponsored to EALA by the Jubilee Party, has also publicly defected to the DCP. Embakasi West MP Mark Mwenje of Jubilee has also given an indication of joining DCP after he visited Mr Gachagua at his Wamunyoro home in Nyeri County last week.
“Mwenje informed me that he had been instructed by his supporters to defend his seat next year under the DCP ticket,” Mr Gachagua said after the meeting.
