A coalition of parties allied to President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga would have an advantage in the election of a prime minister based on lawmakers’ current political affiliations.
Out of 290 constituency MPs, such an outfit, bringing together Kanu, Chama Cha Mashinani, Wiper and other fringe parties, would collectively have 142 lawmakers.
Assuming this coalition secures half of the extra 70 constituency seats proposed in the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) report, it would take the tally to 177, which is nearly half of the projected 360-member National Assembly.
The BBI task force proposes the prime minister should come from the party or coalition of parties with a majority in the National Assembly.
Mr Gideon Moi’s Kanu, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper and Mr Isaac Ruto’s Chama Cha Mashinani, which together have 29 MPs, have signed cooperation agreements with President Kenyatta’s wing of Jubilee, which has 40 MPs.
Other smaller parties have 23 members who have largely sided with the government, as have ODM’s MPs numbering about 50. If past voting trends are factored in, the Uhuru-Raila camp would scoop at least 35 of the extra 70 constituency seats.
The other Jubilee MPs are allied to Deputy President William Ruto. They would be about 100 constituency representatives – out of the 146 Jubilee members of the National Assembly and senators who once wrote in solidarity with the DP protest letters to the registrar of political parties to challenge Jubilee appointments pushed by Uhuru’s camp.
The same number of lawmakers were in Dr Ruto’s Karen residence last week for talks on the BBI after which the DP made the demands for the referendum to be conducted alongside the General Election in 2022 and that voters be given opportunity to vote on each issue.
While Amani National Congress with 12 MPs and Ford Kenya (11) are not factored in either camp, it’s instructive that the party leaders Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, respectively, are pro-BBI.
So are some of the 13 Independent lawmakers, which would suggest the camp that nearly has half would be at an advantage in the race for PM as it would be required to win over a few other MPs to tip the scales.
The breakdown excludes women representatives, as the BBI report recommends that the posts be scrapped.
According to the report, the additional membership of the National Assembly is proposed to include six nominees as well as the number of special seat members’ necessary to ensure that no more than two-thirds of the membership of Parliament is of the same gender.
The filling of these special seats, which are proposed to lapse after the next three general elections, will be determined after declaration of elected members from each constituency which suggests the party or coalition of parties the performs well at the polls get the lion’s share of the slots.
The coming together of President Kenyatta’s wing of Jubilee, ODM, Kanu, CCM and Wiper is being viewed as a step towards a pre-election coalition for 2022.
“We are working towards coming up with a super alliance in 2022 to unite the country. Talks have been going on and they will continue with all like-minded people who are ready to work with us,” Cotu boss Francis Atwoli said in August.
He has hosted Mr Odinga, Jubilee vice-chairman David Murathe, Mr Peter Kenneth, Mr James Orengo and Mr Junet Mohammed at his home in Kajiado on numerous occasions.
Mr Musyoka in December last year said: “I have made a resolution that I and the Kamba community are not flip-flopping and where Uhuru will be even after 2022, we will be there.”
The BBI report recommends the creation of the office of the prime minister and two deputies. It further proposes that the president will appoint the PM from among MPs and from the party or coalition with a majority.
It also proposes the creation of the office of the leader of official opposition, whose holder will be the runner-up in the presidential election.
The Uhuru-Raila coalition has a majority of MPs in Coast, Nairobi, Eastern, Western and Nyanza regions.
The DP’s camp draws major support from Rift Valley and Central, but has won over allies in Coast, Nyanza, Western and Northern Kenya.
Dr Ruto enjoys the support of lawmakers from pastoral communities, including Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Wajir and Garissa counties.
Pockets of BBI opposition are also to be found in Gusiiland and Migori, especially in Kuria.
MPs Shadrack Mose (Kitutu Masaba), Vincent Kemosi (West Mugirango), Alfer Miruka (Bomachoge Chache), Innocent Obiri (Bobasi) and Sylvanus Osoro support the DP in Gusiiland.
In Western, the DP’s supporters include Benjamin Washiali (Mumias East), Didmus Barasa (Kimilili), Malulu Injendi (Malava) and Dan Wanyama (Webuye West).
All eyes are, however, on the President, with the alliance’s hold in his Mt Kenya backyard seemingly slippery.
Among the DP’s strong backers from the region are MPs Kimani Ichung’wa (Kikuyu), Rigathi Gachagua (Mathira), Ndindi Nyoro (Kiharu) and Alice Wahome (Kandara).
The group represents the face of defiance against President Kenyatta in Mt Kenya region, and there is likelihood the pool could be bigger, only that a majority are too scared to challenge the king in a bare-knuckle contest.
The President has not toured the region with his BBI message, with reports indicating the ground is hostile towards him. Most MPs complain in hushed tones that they have been ignored and alienated by a powerful cabal of public officials who surround the President.
The President’s fierce defenders in the region include National Assembly Majority Leader Amos Kimunya, who took over from ousted DP’s ally, Aden Duale, as well as Senate Majority Whip Irungu Kang’ata, who replaced another staunch supporter of Dr Ruto, Nakuru Senator Susan Kihika.
Others are Nyeri Town MP Wambugu Ngunjiri, Murang’a Woman Rep Sabina Chege and Laikipia’s Catherine Waruguru, who defected from the DP’s Tangatanga camp.
At the Coast, the Uhuru-Raila alliance still enjoys support from a majority of MPs with the exception of the DP’s vocal backers Aisha Jumwa (Malindi), Mohamed Ali (Nyali), Owen Baya (Kilifi North), Khatib Mwashetani (Lunga Lunga) and Kinango’s Benjamin Tayari.
