President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto exchange greetings during 18th Annual National Prayer Breakfast at Parliament Buildings on May 27, 2021.
| Jeff Angote | Nation Media GroupPolitics
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Uhuru's quandary: Push Ruto out of Jubilee or wait for him to jump ship
What you need to know:
- Today, with 12 months to go before their second term ends, both President Kenyatta and his deputy look, and behave, like strangers to each other.
On April 22, 2013, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, donning similar attire, stepped out onto the eastern steps of State House, Nairobi, to unveil their new government.
The media noticed, and rightly so, the tight political bromance that was in the air.
It didn’t go far.
Today, with 12 months to go before their second term ends, both President Kenyatta and his deputy look, and behave, like strangers to each other.
At times, as they did during the launch of the Building Bridges Initiative at Bomas of Kenya, they play to the cameras.
But deep inside the two wings of the Jubilee Party, there is no love lost between them.
How long the pretence will continue, and when the official parting will take place, is no longer a question of if but when. A divorce looks imminent.
Why the camaraderie, similar to that displayed in 1964 between Jomo Kenyatta and his Vice-President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga when they usually appeared in public donning similar beaded beanies, collapsed has been fodder for both sides of the political divide.
Blame game
While DP Ruto blames his “isolation” on the emergence of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga as President Kenyatta’s political soulmate, the President’s Jubilee wing claims that during Mr Kenyatta’s first term, most of the mega graft scandals were carried out by the DP’s associates, who claim that they are cherry-picked for prosecution on account of being the DP’s supporters.
They also point to the Covid-19 billionaire scandal, which happened while Dr Ruto was out in the cold.
For the last four years, President Kenyatta has been evading politics hoping to consolidate his legacy – and also manage the succession.
To achieve that, he crafted an administrative system that took over the supervision of mega government projects.
This new structure reports to the President via Interior and Coordination of National Government Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i - the man Dr Ruto says took over his supervisory job.
With the infrastructure projects of President Kenyatta’s first-term stained by graft and as corruption threatened to sink his second term, too, the President seems to have had little space left to manoeuvre.
More so, an election boycott by former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, after the Supreme Court nullified Kenyatta’s August 8 victory, had left the country torn and in the mood for chaos.
So soiled was the political terrain that as Mr Odinga returned from a 10-day visit to the UK and the USA on November 17, 2017, the city erupted into chaos as police confronted his supporters for a whole day.
Caught between running a country and bitter opposition to him, President Kenyatta went for the easier option of bringing in the opposition leader to a ‘handshake’ deal.
Mr Odinga, too, was in a quandary. He had been jilted by his adherent political supporters in the National Super Alliance (Nasa), who had failed to accompany him to his mock swearing-in at Uhuru Park.
Raila's gamble
Shifting to President Kenyatta and agreeing to work with him was classic Mr Odinga.
After failing to clinch the presidency in the 1997 General Election – he emerged a poor third – Mr Odinga and his National Development Party (NDP) surprised everyone when he ditched the opposition and started working with President Daniel Moi, a move that led to the March 2002 merger.
In his calculations, Mr Odinga had hoped that President Moi would anoint him as his successor.
The political gamble did not work out as Moi went for then political neophyte Uhuru Kenyatta – who was defeated in the polls by Mwai Kibaki as part of a coalition that, ironically, included the Odinga-led Liberal Democratic Party.
The Ruto wing of Jubilee believes Mr Odinga has played, or is playing, the same card on Uhuru Kenyatta or using the same formula to get ahead of the pack in the August 2022 polls.
They claim Mr Odinga wants to rain on DP Ruto’s parade as the State candidate.
But how much did the DP know about the negotiations between Mr Odinga and President Kenyatta?
This has been a tricky question, for only a few people were involved. More so, it now appears, not all cards were on the table.
But certainly, the isolation of DP Ruto started shortly after the handshake – and he says Jubilee’s failure to achieve its promises to the electorate was due to the handshake.
His boss, President Kenyatta, tends to differ. In public, he says he achieved more in this second term than his first.
DP Ruto, on the other hand, claims that Jubilee’s Big Four Agenda was derailed because the President was kept busy with the agenda to change the Constitution and “looking for positions” through the BBI.
While DP Ruto does not directly mention the President, he says collaborators were to blame for the collapse of the Big Four.
DP's failures
But the President’s supporters say the DP was isolated over his failures.
“When the DP controlled half of the Government, mega graft scandals rocked the Government, including the Arror and Kimwarer dams scandal, the Hustler Jet scandal, Weston Hotel land grab and the likes. It should concern Kenyans that as the DP sells his agenda, he remains mum on the action to tame graft,” some Jubilee legislators said last week in a press statement.
During the first term, multiple allies of President Uhuru Kenyatta now say, anyone who spoke ill of Dr Ruto would get a tongue-lashing.
Slowly, the President isolated his own men as the Deputy President entrenched himself – especially in the Mt Kenya region.
Tied together by the same predicament – the International Criminal Court threat – and with their fate tied to their ticket, both Mr Kenyatta and Dr Ruto had been forced into a marriage of convenience.
But it was more than that.
When Mr Kenyatta vied for the presidency for the first time, Dr Ruto was one of the young turks who teamed up with him.
And on the day he conceded defeat, after he was beaten by Mwai Kibaki, it was Dr Ruto who stood beside him as Kanu veterans kept away.
Close associates of President Kenyatta say DP Ruto’s desire to make him a lame-duck President backfired on him.
Shortly after the 2017 elections, the President wanted campaigning to stop but DP Ruto kick-started a campaign to realign politics, especially in Mt Kenya region, to his favour.
Fearing that he would be a lame-duck final-term President, and concerned that the political state had become uncontrollable, nay ungovernable, President Kenyatta started by waging a multi-pronged political war that not only identified avenues of sleaze but also managed to weaken the political structures left by his predecessor, President Mwai Kibaki.
It is the new structure under Dr Matiang’i that has been giving nightmares to the political establishment.
And while the President and Dr Matiang’i have managed to destabilise avenues of sleaze, the battle is not yet won as prosecutors have been snail-paced.
And since DP Ruto’s position is shielded by the Constitution, unless he jumps out voluntarily, the President has been left in an awkward position and can hardly discipline his deputy.
While the only avenue left to get rid of him is through a tricky impeachment process, it does not seem to be a game President Kenyatta wants to play.
Ruto's grand plan
Of late, DP Ruto has publicly indicated that his heart is at the United Democratic Alliance, the vehicle he intends to use in next year’s General Election.
While Jubilee is under the weather – thanks to internal wrangles brought by the falling-out between President Kenyatta and his deputy – and its survival and strength to field a presidential candidate next year is in doubt, it is now clear the President is looking outside his own party for a successor.
But does Jubilee have the guts to kick out DP Ruto on account of his affiliation with another party?
Last week, the DP convened his own parliamentary group meeting at his Karen residence and declared he will formally quit government.
At the meeting, Dr Ruto also cited the failures of the Jubilee government for the last four years, blaming them on former Nasa coalition partners and their “collaborators” in Jubilee.
Since the reintroduction of multiparty politics, no political party has managed to hold onto power for two terms.
Initially, President Kibaki was elected on a Narc ticket but as he finished his first term, Narc was a divided house and he secured his second term under the banner of the Party of National Unity.
During his first term, President Kenyatta looked like a minion rather than an astute leader – and often faded, to his chagrin, in the shadow of his deputy – an always-on-the-road politico whose touch with the grassroots has been impeccable.
Dr Ruto is a shrewd political operator, incredibly underrated and, until recently, had a well-oiled campaign machine.
While questions have been raised about the sources of his wealth, he has not been directly targeted by investigators.
But with the war against corruption and cartels, President Kenyatta has not only weakened the political system – by using administrative and security apparatus – but also set loose the State machinery to clamp down the financial structures that financed the rogue political state.
The question on the table is whether President Kenyatta can finally go to trim his deputy to size – and in what manner.
Talk has been rife this week that a reshuffle that could see some of the remaining Ruto allies kicked out of the Cabinet is in the works.
But that may have to wait for the ruling on the fate of the BBI next week, which might offer the country some more political fodder in the coming months. Will President Kenyatta have the guts to let his party drop the DP or will DP Ruto jump the ship to organise his party? That is the tricky question for both.
[email protected], @johnkamau1
