President Kenyatta’s 2022 succession is already shaping up, centred on his apparent political divorce from his deputy William Ruto, and the delicate balancing act of crafting a formidable alliance from the team that is now behind him.
His comments on Saturday on the possibility of backing someone from outside the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities for President in the next General Election, was a clearest indication yet that the Head of State had ‘reneged’ on his earlier plans to endorse his deputy.
His sentiments also, in effect, narrow down the race in his camp to three choices, which will no doubt leave the Head of State scratching his head in the next few months.
The non-Kikuyu-Kalenjin presidency, which also kicks out Kanu chairman Gideon Moi who is allied to Mr Kenyatta but comes from the same ethnic community as Mr Ruto, then leaves Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga, Wiper Democratic Movement’s Kalonzo Musyoka and his Amani National Congress (ANC) counterpart Musalia Mudavadi as possible successors.
“Looking at the leaders from that corner ... not all of them can be (President). Bring all these leaders together under one roof. Let the leader come from this group. Do not leave the country to conmen,” Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu told President Kenyatta on Saturday, summarising the premium placed on his hand in the succession politics in the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) family.
Being the oldest, most experienced politician who can claim to have a solid base behind him, Mr Odinga, backed by President Kenyatta, is seen as the biggest threat against the DP, who has already declared that the race is between him and the ODM leader. In their campaigns, Mr Odinga’s backers cite his dedication to the ‘Handshake’, his countrywide support, and the fact that this might be his last chance at the top job.
Were President Kenyatta to choose a Mudavadi-Mt Kenya running mate ticket backed by Mr Odinga, those aware of the scenarios being played out in the Uhuru camp say it will present what is seen as the most formidable opposition against the DP outside of the Odinga-Uhuru names, which many see as a race that DP Ruto has already defined and started exploiting to his advantage.
The school of thought that backs the Mudavadi-Mt Kenya running mate ticket in the Uhuru circles, the Nation has established, argue that Mr Odinga should, out of the Handshake deal, join President Kenyatta to play the role of king-makers to counter the anti-Raila sentiment in Mt Kenya.
This choice is said to be gaining traction among the political strategists surrounding President Kenyatta, but is predicated on Mr Odinga’s reaction to such a proposal with the Head of State said not to want to antagonise Mr Odinga, a scenario that can only benefit Mr Ruto.
But were President Kenyatta to choose a candidate other than Mr Odinga to succeed him, the Head of State will be treading on shaky ground, with the ODM leader and his legion of supporters across the country not showing signs of backing down from the top seat.
Mr Odinga’s supporters, including his elder brother Dr Oburu Oginga, already see the Handshake and the support of the ‘system’ as the surest way to the State House seat that has eluded him in his last four attempts.
There is also fear in the Handshake camp that a push to have Mr Mudavadi carry the flag on a ticket with a running mate from President Kenyatta’s backyard may see Mr Odinga go for the seat on his own, a scenario that strategists see could lead to a run-off whose simple majority provision leaves the race open. President Kenyatta insists that his hand in his 2022 succession cannot be ignored.
“Do not mistake a lion that has been rained on for a cat. Everything has its own time. We believe in democracy. Let them make all the noise they want to make, write all the letters they want to write . . . I am in charge of this government and I’m in control of what we’re doing. No one should purport to lecture me. I know where I am and I’m very clear about where I’m going,” President Kenyatta said on Saturday, criticising people he said only had their seats “because of my vote”.
While eulogising Mama Hannah Mudavadi, Mr Mudavadi’s mother in Nairobi, Muhoho Kenyatta, President Kenyatta’s brother, appeared to issue a veiled endorsement of the ANC leader, citing the two families’ long history.
While he had set himself as the shoo-in successor of President Kenyatta, the DP’s place as the Jubilee leader’s heir-apparent has been chipped at with every turn of the deal, and nearly three years later, the DP’s 2022 elections strategy appears to have been one not expecting his boss’ backing.
Yesterday, the DP insisted that he will not bow out of the race, framing the contest as one between his ‘hustlers movement’ versus the ‘dynasties’.
“I supported President Kenyatta when President Kibaki was in office. And many of those people who were talking yesterday criticised me for it, saying, I was not only supporting another Kikuyu candidate for the presidency, but he was also the son of a former president. But I told them that I was supporting Uhuru, not because of his tribe, but because we both had a plan to transform Kenya,” the DP said in Kayole in Nairobi yesterday.
For Ruto, the Handshake threw him into an unfamiliar territory, which has now led him to reinvent his messaging by distancing himself from the Jubilee government.
“The possibility of him getting a real shot at State House has reduced from 100 per cent before the Handshake to about 40 per cent now,” University of Nairobi lecturer Herman Manyora told the Nation in an earlier interview.
In the Uhuru succession matrix, Mr Musyoka, the Wiper leader, seems to have put his eggs in a basket that hopes an alliance with him, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula will carry the day. He told mourners in Mr Mudavadi’s home that he will walk with the ANC leader “come rain, or shower.”
Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula, on the other hand, seems to have thrown in the towel, going by his recent statements, and that of his ally, Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa that the Luhya community should back Mr Mudavadi. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) boss Dr Mukhisa Kituyi is also seeking the President’s ear in the race for the top job.
