What BBI collapse means to Ruto, Moi in Rift Valley politics and 2022 succession

The end of BBI, marked by the Court of Appeal upholding a High Court ruling that termed it unconstitutional, is seen as a big win for Deputy President William Ruto in his bid to consolidate his support in the Rift Valley.

A political commentator on Rift Valley politics, Mr Joseph Ngugi, said that the death of BBI was like a brutal coup against Mr Moi.

"With the death of BBI, DP Ruto is now seen as the undisputed de facto leader of the Kalenjin community. The Court of Appeal outcome is like a brutal coup against Gideon who would naturally have been expected to take the community's leadership mantle from his late father Daniel Moi," said Mr Ngugi.

Political life complicated

He added: "BBI, therefore, complicates Gideon's political life, not only in Baringo, but also as a national leader, since he has nothing to bring to the negotiating table. He will not be seen an equal partner when it comes to negotiations in any coalition."

However, Tiaty MP William Kasait Kamket, one of Mr Moi’s confidants, said the Baringo senator lost nothing with the death of BBI.

"He lost zero. The death of BBI is a blessing for Gideon and gives him a head start as a strong presidential candidate for One Kenya Alliance (OKA) in 2022," said the Tiaty MP.

"Gideon has big support across the country, unlike Dr Ruto, who pegs his main hopes on Rift Valley. Gideon only needs to be confirmed as the OKA candidate and once that confirmation is done, the residents of Rift Valley will weigh their options who among Gideon and Dr Ruto has a better chance to become the fifth president of Kenya in 2022. That is what we are waiting for," said Mr Kamket.

Big blow to Ruto

The MP said the halting of BBI was instead a big blow to DP Ruto in his bid to solidify his base in the Rift Valley.

"The stronger Dr Ruto is becoming in Rift Valley the more chances of Gideon becoming the compromising candidate in 2022 because Dr Ruto must lose," added Mr Kamket.

Mr Kamket said the end of BBI does not affect President Kenyatta's succession plans, but complicates Dr Ruto's choice of running mate.

"BBI’s collapse has affected the regional political balance as envisaged in BBI and this is the headache that Dr Ruto now faces in his choice of picking a running mate, something that would have been resolved by BBI," said Mr Kamket.

"The truth of the matter is that Dr Ruto may be solidifying his support through his community but don't forget Rift Valley does not belong to one community. The millions of Kikuyus and other communities in Rift Valley who were supporting the BBI will not support Dr Ruto. He will lose their support as BBI was to benefit them through additional constituencies and billions of funding from the national government," said Mr Kamket.

Others disagree.

Final nail in coffin

"The toppling of BBI is like a final nail in the coffin of the succession deal that the late President Moi had with President Kenyatta," said Mr Francis Tallam, a political analyst in Baringo County.

"Those fronting the Uhuru succession may use Gideon as their deputy or running mate but it would be hard to catch up with Dr Ruto in Rift Valley, in any case, they would lose other OKA leaders if Gideon becomes their flag bearer in 2022," said Kabazi MCA Peter Mbae.

He added: "Dr Ruto now retains the near-fanatical following in Rift Valley, something that no other leader enjoys."

A political analyst in the region, Mr Joseph Omondi, said Mr Moi is now in an awkward position as he has nothing to bring to the OKA negotiating table.

"He is not bringing anything to the table and nobody can allow President Kenyatta to front Gideon as his successor. That would be political suicide and no leader of OKA would entertain it now that BBI is dead. Gideon has no solid ground support in Rift Valley to counter Dr Ruto. His killer bullet was BBI, which has been neutralised by the Court of Appeal," said Mr Omondi.

No impact

Former MP Koigi Wamwere said Moi has no impact and has been riding on his father success to make inroads in Rift Valley and national politics, which has been rough on him.

"Gideon is not a serious candidate. With the death of BBI, everybody will now fight his or her political battle and I don't see Gideon making any impact on his own. Sincerely speaking, I don't think serious Kenyans are thinking that Gideon can become the next president of Kenya. I don't think so," said Mr Koigi.

Former Senator Paul Njoroge said with the death of BBI, Mr Moi’s chances of becoming the next president are nil.

"Gideon does not command a big following in his home turf of Rift Valley and this complicates President Kenyatta's succession plans," said Mr Njoroge.

However, Mr Njoroge agreed that the death of BBI was a big blow to Dr Ruto, as communities supporting the BBI in Rift Valley may not support his presidential bid.

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