President William Ruto.
The July 17 Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, in which Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Kamau Ngotho trounced United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Muchina Nyaga, has intensified scrutiny of President William Ruto's re-election prospects ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Mr Ngotho secured 35,440 votes, about 85 percent of the total cast, against Mr Nyaga's 5,540 votes, or roughly 13 percent. Jubilee Party candidate Wilson Kigwa managed 198 votes.
The outcome has fuelled debate over whether the crushing defeat reflects growing discontent with President Ruto's administration, particularly in the Mt Kenya region, which was instrumental in his 2022 victory.
Political analyst Herman Manyora argues that while it is too early to write off President Ruto's re-election bid, the Ol Kalou result should serve as a wake-up call.
"The Ol Kalou defeat is no longer just a Mt Kenya issue — it has become a national mirror. Poor voters accepted campaign handouts and witnessed government development projects, yet overwhelmingly voted for the opposition. More worrying for the President is that the 13 percent garnered by the UDA candidate does not necessarily represent his actual support," Mr Manyora said.
Mr Manyora added that President Ruto had entered what he termed the "valuation phase" of his presidency.
"It is still early to write him off, but he should realise his political value is now being tested. Unless he has a Plan B that he can roll out before March 2027, the outlook is not encouraging," he said.
Acknowledge reality
Nyandarua County Senator John Methu.
DCP interim Secretary-General and Nyandarua Senator John Methu, who coordinated the Opposition campaign, said the by-election demonstrated that voters could distinguish between genuine development and political inducements.
"As long as President Ruto continues relying on unbudgeted spending announced from campaign platforms, while his allies distribute food, clothes and money, he should know that in 2027 the much-publicised development record will not save him — but will embarrass him," Mr Methu said.
He argued that President Ruto had abandoned many of the 47 economic commitments he promised Kenyans in 2022, and had instead embraced what he described as transactional politics.
Political commentator Peter Kagwanja believes the President risks boxing himself into a political corner by assuming Mt Kenya will eventually reconcile with him.
"The mountain was the only region outside his ethnic base that strongly backed his presidential bid in 2022. Yet for nearly two years it has remained politically distant. The Ol Kalou landslide suggests that dissatisfaction with the government is deepening. If I were the President, I would quietly acknowledge that reality," Prof Kagwanja said.
Within government, however, leaders insist the defeat has been noted and corrective measures are underway.
Correctional Services Principal Secretary Salome Beacco said the administration had received the message from Mt Kenya voters.
"We have heard the people loudly and clearly. If there are things we have done wrong, we are ready to engage them, seek forgiveness and move forward together. Walking away from a government that still has enormous benefits for the region would not be wise," she said.
Former Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura questioned calls for leaders from Mt Kenya to abandon the administration.
"Do people really want all those from the region serving in government to be pushed out? That would not be fair," he said.
Weaknesses exposed
President William Ruto delivers his address during the launch of the Government–UNDP–KEPSA NextGen.Ke Youth Employment Programme at State House, Nairobi, on July 24, 2025.
Political scientist Festus Wangwe said the by-election exposed weaknesses within President Ruto's Mt Kenya political machinery.
"It defies logic that an entire Cabinet and numerous elected leaders, armed with enormous resources, could campaign in Ol Kalou and still suffer such a humiliating defeat. The margin tells a story of poorly assembled political teams and ineffective strategies. Some leaders, including Moses Kuria, ended up insulting opponents instead of persuading voters," he said.
According to Mr Wangwe, the result should also convince the President that money and intimidation alone cannot secure electoral support.
Trans-Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
Trans-Nzoia Governor George Natembeya said the government had ignored repeated warnings from the opposition that excessive spending and political violence would eventually backfire. He argued that the by-election had become a national test of voter consciousness.
"If these tactics failed in a single constituency with about 47,000 voters, then those relying on handouts, violence or electoral manipulation in 2027 should prepare for a difficult contest," he said.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri dismissed suggestions that the result signals the government's electoral decline, describing it as a regional setback rather than a national trend.
"That was a local contest branded as the 'Murima referendum.' The only person celebrating it nationally is Rigathi Gachagua. We recently won the Mbeere North by-election, and nationally the government has won more than 95 percent of recent by-elections. We will improve on our Ol Kalou performance while consolidating support in other regions," he said.
Mr Kiunjuri argued that it was too early to predict the outcome of the 2027 race, noting that opinion polls still place President Ruto ahead of potential challengers.
Emboldened government critics
Kajiado Senator Kenar Seki, however, believes the by-election has emboldened government critics.
"Many voters believed President Ruto was politically invincible. Ol Kalou has shown that if voters reject bribery, resist intimidation and vote decisively, even the government can be defeated," he said.
Calls have also emerged for President Ruto to begin reorganising his 2027 campaign, including reconsidering the region from which he will pick his running mate.
Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi dismissed such suggestions.
"President Ruto knows Mt Kenya played a central role in electing him. That reality has not changed. Leaders from the region serve in government as a matter of right, not favour. This was a setback, but it is one we shall overcome," he said.
Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi.
Political scientist John Okumu, however, argued that the President must make difficult political choices if he hopes to secure a second term.
"The ideal running mate may no longer come from Mt Kenya. Regions now supporting the government are openly demanding the deputy presidency. Politics is about survival, not sentiment," he said.
Prof Okumu said President Ruto should urgently restructure UDA, rebuild alliances, reorganise his Cabinet and reward regions that still offer him strong political support.
"Waiting for Mt Kenya to return could prove politically costly. The President must respond to the emerging political realities rather than remain anchored to the alliances that delivered victory in 2022," he said.
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