When the Speaker of the National Assembly, Moses Wetang'ula, retreated to his chamber to make a ruling on which party had the majority in the house, he was fully aware of the political ramifications of his decision for the Kenya Kwanza administration.
The country was staring at the possibility of having a president with the short end of the stick in the National Assembly, a move that would have left President William Ruto literally at the mercy of the minority to push his agenda through parliament.
Speaker Wetang'ula gives directions on House leadership divide
Although President Ruto currently enjoys political camaraderie with his main challenger in the 2022 elections Raila Odinga of ODM, there was deep suspicion among the Kenya Kwanza administration's top leadership in the House that members of the Orange Party could make life difficult for the ruling coalition.
The ruling by the High Court to the effect that Mr Wetang’ula blundered in declaring Kenya Kwanza the majority party threw the ruling coalition into a spin with President Ruto reportedly summoning his legal advisors to craft a pushback.
The Nation has learnt that the decision taken in Parliament yesterday was arrived at after wide consultations, not only for political reasons but also to ensure that the courts do not come back to overturn earlier decisions by the same House. The President knew his rule was at stake if the judgment was to stay.
Mr Wetang’ula said in his pronouncement that he had to ensure that he not only ring-fenced Parliament from interference from other arms of government (read the Courts) but also guaranteed uninterrupted functioning of the House.
Fears that an opposition member would become the majority leader in the National Assembly, which is seen as the cog in the wheel of parliament, were allayed by the current Minority Leader, Junet Mohamed, during the debate.
"I want to allay fears that the majority must come from the ruling party, the ruling party does things for posterity. The next election could see a government where the president gets the majority votes but doesn't have the numbers in parliament and his party becomes a minority," Mr Mohamed said.
"This mindset that the ruling party must have the majority in parliament to run the country's executive must be eradicated," he added.
The Suna East MP, a staunch ally of Mr Odinga, said Parliament is independent and MPs perform their duties as stipulated in Article 95 of the Constitution, so there would have been no problem even if the opposition side had assumed the role of majority leader.
"It does not mean that if we are the majority in the house, we will oppose everything the government wants to do, if the government brings bills and policies that will benefit the people of this country, we will support them," Mr Mohamed said.
Mr Mohamed said there was no need to be part of the broad-based government if the court ruling recognising it as the majority in parliament could not be respected.
"There is no way we are going to have this broad base, but then when we want to become the majority, people look at us with suspicious eyes," Mr Mohamed said.
The Orange Party has been in a state of flux lately over whether it's in government or still in opposition.
In a recent interview, ODM interim Party Leader Anyang' Nyong'o said his former members who have been appointed to the government are only providing technical support but the party remains in opposition.
"This happens very often even in the Conservative and Labour parties. In the United States, Donald Trump, who is a Republican, is appointing some people from the Democratic Party. This does not mean that the Democratic Party has joined the government. When it happens here in Kenya, why is it strange? He asked.
Prof Nyong'o, Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, and Siaya Senator James Orengo have continued to launch scathing attacks on the government.
Speaking last month at the funeral of Roseline Odede, the former chairperson of the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR), Mr Orengo warned his party members against "enjoying the fruits" of the government, saying the party risked losing its identity.
"We (ODM) have an identity. If you lose that identity for easy victories, we will pay for it in the future. If you have to compromise, you have to compromise on issues of principle. Do not be part of the praise and worship," the governor said.
There were also fears that the declaration of Azimio as the majority would lead to a regrouping of ODM with Wiper in the House of Assembly, a move that would have caused headaches for the ruling coalition.
Also at stake was the decision that the House had taken over the past two years. There were fears that decisions taken with Kenya Kwanza as the majority could be challenged in court, exposing Parliament to unnecessary legal battles.
Majority Whip Silvanus Osoro captured this fear in his argument, saying there was more to it than just where people sit in the House.
"Several decisions have been taken in this House, does it mean that every decision that was taken in the committees that favoured the majority will be rendered mute if we go by the ruling?
It shouldn't be about positions, we are all Members of Parliament and we can do our work anywhere, but let's look at the implications of the decisions we have made in the last two years," Mr Osoro added.
Mr Osoro also expressed fears about what would happen to the IEBC selection panel, whose members represent the Parliamentary Service Commission and political parties based on who is the majority and minority party in the House.
Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo said the debate is not about who is or is not in government as the House is not debating the reasoning behind the ruling or the election of the Speaker, therefore it should be implemented.
"Let Junet Mohamed be the majority leader," Dr Amollo said.
But Majority Leader Kimani Ichung'wah said there's no cause for alarm because the decisions taken by the House in the past two years were taken by the House, not by a decision of the minority or the majority.
Mr Ichung'wah said no court or act of parliament could force any member to stay or associate with Azimio.
"Members of these parties such as Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) Maendeleo Chap Chap and others enjoy an inalienable right to associate with the political association of their choice," Mr Ichung'wah said.
