First-term MPs in Nyanza seeking to retain their seats are under increasing pressure from aspirants eyeing the positions, amid fears that some constituencies have a history of legislators serving only one term.
In Nyanza, examples include Kisumu Central, Alego Usonga, Rarieda, Rangwe, Ndhiwa and Kasipul Kabondo.
These constituencies have traditionally not had an MP re-elected for two consecutive terms since the multiparty system was adopted in 1992.
In Alego Usonga, after Peter Oloo Aringo served four terms during the Kanu one-party system, MPs who took over in the multiparty era have not served more than one term.
Otieno Mark Onyango of Ford-Kenya was elected in 1992, replaced by Aringo in 1997, while Samuel Arthur Weya, Edwin Ochieng Yinda and George Omondi Muluan served one term each in 2002, 2007 and 2013, respectively.
Incumbent MP Samuel Atandi of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) clinched the seat in 2017 and is likely to face some former lawmakers and Siaya Governor Cornel Rasanga in 2022 as he tries to break the jinx.
“I will be the first person to be re-elected simply because of my tangible development projects on the ground and my style of leadership that is different because it is consultative with the people as opposed to my predecessors,” Mr Atandi said.
He believes he has done a lot on education infrastructure. He is currently building the first public school in Siaya town with a storey building. He will also be riding on his scholarship programme.
“People are satisfied with my approach of leadership because I usually engage voters directly and I am visible both on the ground and at the national level and not like the former MPs who used to engage brokers to reach people,” Mr Atandi said.
In Rangwe, current MP Lillian Gogo will be banking on her development record to retain her seat.
Since 1992, no MP has been re-elected to that position twice. Joseph Muga Ouma was elected on a Ford-Kenya ticket in 1992, served one term and was replaced by Shem Ochuodho of the National Democratic Party in 1997.
Phillip Okoth Okundi would then be elected in 2002 on a National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) party ticket, serving one term and losing to Martin Otieno Ogindo of ODM.
In 2013, George Oner of ODM was elected before he was dislodged by the current MP, Dr Gogo.
Dr Gogo exuded confidence that she will be re-elected, saying a random survey on the ground through the people will show that she has the largest support because of the work she has done.
“I will definitely break the jinx. The people of Rangwe had never elected a woman as their MP, which they did. They will definitely re-elect her, next year,” she said.
Some of the top achievements she boasts about are street lighting, flood mitigation, school infrastructure, water, roads and the sub-county headquarters.
Awendo MP Walter Owino (left) and his Suna West counterpart Peter Masara.
It is the same story in Kasipul Kabondo, where Otieno Kopiyo of Ford-Kenya was elected MP and served one term before William Otula of NDP took over. Mr Otula was followed by Peter Owidi of Narc but he died in 2005, prompting a by-election that was won by Paddy Ahenda of LPK.
Joseph Oyugi Magwanga would then clinch the seat in 2007, before the constituency was split into two, giving birth to Kasipul, which came after the promulgation of the new Constitution of 2010.
This has become a common occurrence in newly created constituencies, where first-term legislators find it difficult to retain their seats.
This has happened in Kisumu Central, where Ken Obura lost to Fred Ouda of ODM. Many aspirants, including philanthropist and medical doctor Joshua Oron, are already on the ground keen to ensure that history is maintained and he becomes the next city MP.
“There is no norm that cannot be changed and this notion that one person cannot be elected twice will change because I have performed very well in various projects in my constituency, especially on education,” he said.
Other newly created constituencies where legislators failed to retain their seats include Awendo, earlier held by Wiper’s Jared Opiyo, who was trounced by Walter Owino of ODM.
Another is Suna West, now represented by Peter Masara, who beat Joseph Obiero Ndiege in 2017. Mr Ndiege is planning to make a comeback and the two may face off in 2022.
In the last General Election, at least 166 of 290 MPs lost their seats.
This meant that three of every five MPs or 60 percent who served in the 11 Parliament were defeated. Only 119 were re-elected.
Among the triumphant were Aduma Owuor (Nyakach), James Koyoo (Muhoroni), James Nyikal (Seme), Shakeel Shabbir (Kisumu East), Olago Aluoch (Kisumu West) and David Ochieng (Ugenya).
The others were Opiyo Wandayi (Ugunja), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), John Mbadi (Suba South), Junet Mohamed (Suna East) and Peter Opondo Kaluma (Homa Bay Town East).
