For Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, the ongoing political realignments are revealing a complete reversal of roles ahead of the 2022 elections.
After chiding Mr Odinga and opposition coalition Nasa, over their numerous complaints and court cases ahead of the 2017 elections, the DP is now the one making the complaints and attacking institutions ahead of the General Election. And his allies have indicated that they will move their fights to court.
“We shall consider going to court and seek legal dissolution of that committee for elections preparedness (Technical Working Committee). We shall not leave anything to chance,” Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata, an ally of the DP, told Sunday Nation.
This comes amid rising anger, fear and frustration in the DP’s camp of the State becoming more brazen in attempting to scuttle his bid to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.
On the other hand, Mr Odinga and his party have remained unusually quiet insofar as the preparations and involvement of Cabinet secretaries in political campaigns are concerned.
In less than a month, Dr Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party has written two letters: one to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and Chief Justice Martha Koome. This is similar to the Nasa letters of 2017 and earlier, including copying the letters to the African Union Commission, Delegation of the European Union, US Embassy and British High Commission.
In the letter to IEBC, UDA wanted the commission to clarify its involvement in the Technical Working Committee for elections preparedness which comprises the commission, Judiciary, Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of ICT, among others. UDA also Cabinet secretaries Fred Matiang’i (Interior), Joe Mucheru (ICT) and Ukur Yattani (Treasury) lacked neutrality by campaigning for Mr Odinga.
The letter to CJ Koome demanded that she quit the multi-sectoral consultative forum on election preparedness, which she chairs.
“It is our submission that your continued involvement in the Technical Working Committee is likely to interfere with and shall threaten free and fair elections in the 2022 General Election,” UDA secretary-general Veronica Maina stated.
The CJ, through her chief of staff Rose Macharia, has responded to the UDA letter stating that her role in the forum does not in any way interfere with the independence of the Judiciary.
According to Mr Kang’ata, the reason for the letters is to document complaints and build a case “in the unlikely event the matter turns to courts. Further, it illustrates the seriousness with which we take this matter.”
For Mr Odinga and the Nasa team, the letters they wrote and the responses they received in 2017 formed part of their election petition. UDA is looking at a similar strategy.
In the run-up to the elections, Nasa’s complaints included allegations that state security agents had rented a house overlooking Mr Odinga’s home in Karen to monitor him, and that Interior CS Matiang’i’ was biased.
Ironically, when Nasa was making the allegations, it was DP Ruto who was the chief defender of government functionaries. For instance, on July 29, 2017, on the campaign trail with President Uhuru Kenyatta in Nyamira, Dr Matiang’i’s home county to defend the CS.
“We want to remind the former Prime Minister (Raila Odinga) that he is competing against President Uhuru Kenyatta. Let him leave Matiang’i alone. We are telling them to compete against us. It is not IEBC that will vote. The ballot papers will not vote. And certainly not the military and the police. It is the people who will vote. Therefore they should let our police officers do their work,” said the DP.
According to CS Mucheru, Dr Ruto has moved from a “chest-thumping presidential candidate to a panicky cry baby”.
“These were the same people who said that even if you make Oburu Oginga (brother to Mr Odinga) the chair of the Independent and Electoral and Boundaries Commission, they would still win. So what has changed now that they are suddenly panicking and creating a lot of unnecessary noise?” Mr Mucheru posed.
“I get very perplexed when people complain that we’re sitting and planning on our preparations for the next election. IEBC is independent but they don’t have their networks for transmitting electoral results or their security,” said Mr Mucheru.
Political commentator Dismas Mokua says that what the DP is saying about CSs and high-ranking public servants’ participation in partisan political campaigns is the right position according to the Constitution. What is lacking, however, is in sincerity.
“The question we should ask the DP is, between 2017 and now, when did he experience the Damascus moment? Assuming he was in good books with his boss, would he still castigate Cabinet secretaries and public servants of rank who were supporting him? I am asking this because we want consistency in our politics and so far the DP has failed on this front,” says Mr Mokua.
“Opinion polls so far indicate UDA is ahead unlike Nasa at that period. When you are ahead, you pivot towards pushing for polls credibility as it is the only barrier to success. On the other hand, Nasa was complaining as a weaker party in electoral terms. Its complaints were not legitimate. On our part, we believe the only barrier between us and the State House is theft of votes,” he said.
He added: “The Deputy President is a person who doesn’t like blaming anyone. He believes success depends on personal initiative, not external factors. Nasa used to complain but it was not campaigning. DP, on the other hand, is campaigning vigorously because of our innate view that ultimately that is what counts most, not deep state. It is better to trust genuine votes rather than hinge our victory on the deep state.”
In recent UDA rallies, the DP and his allies have trained their guns on Dr Matiang’i and Mr Mucheru for reportedly being partisan while involved in elections planning.
But if the roles being played by the CSs and the CJ in the Technical Working Committee were unsettling the DP, the bigger problem could be his boss, the President.
For some time, the President has been meeting opposition leaders Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, Gideon Moi and Moses Wetang’ula to convince them to front a united candidate against the DP.
Speaking at the Wiper national delegates conference on Thursday, Mr Odinga hinted at the opposition leaders working together again ahead of 2022, which could point to the President succeeding in his quest. A coming together of the former Nasa colleagues does not augur well for the DP who currently has no major political name in his camp.
For Mr Odinga, unlike in 2017 when he was constantly looking over his shoulder for state agents, they are now with him. In yet another instance of reversal of roles, it is the DP who now mistrusts the state. Dr Ruto and his allies have branded Mr Odinga a “system project” being imposed on Kenyans.
With Cabinet secretaries and public servants of rank openly defying the DP, Dr Ruto’s fears and frustrations are compounded.
