Ruto says there's no El Nino as scientists fault him
What you need to know:
- Dr Ruto said that the October-November-December season will have short rains that will not necessarily cause devastating impacts to farmers.
- However, KMD is yet to make an official announcement on the status of El Nino
President William Ruto on Sunday, October 22, announced that Kenya will not experience El Nino as was predicted by scientists in the country.
Instead, he said that the October-November-December season will have short rains that will not necessarily cause devastating impacts to farmers.
“You recently heard that our country is going to experience El Nino, but who is God, have you heard that those people say that we will not have it (El Nino) but there will just be heavy rainfall,” he said.
“Even with that heavy rainfall that we will get, we have prepared our farmers to produce enough yields so that we can have food in January,” he added.
His announcement elicited reactions both online and offline. This is even as weeks before his declaration Kenyans online made ridicule of the forecast of a looming El Nino.
Early September, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) through its Climate Prediction and Adaptation Centre (ICPAC) announced the possibility of the region experiencing Elnino.
Weeks after, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) also asked Kenyans to brace for Elnino during the short rains season.
Even global meteorological organisations like the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had the same predictions only that NOAA’s prediction showed that the Elnino phenomenon will extend to February 2024.
In the country, some farmers in some regions have been receiving warnings from a farmer information service called iShamba, warning them when rainfall is likely to exceed expectations.
The Nation looked at messages of a farmer in Western Kenya whose prediction on October 4 was 27 millimetres, October 11 was 66 millimetres and the most recent prediction for October 26 is 58 millimetres.
However, KMD is yet to make an official announcement on the status of El Nino in the country.
The Nation reached out to the Kenya Meteorological Department’s deputy director in charge of forecasting services Bernard Chanzu, who was not willing to comment on what the president had said.
“Unfortunately I didn’t hear what the President said, and I am away on a weekend,” he said.
We reached out to Eunice Koech, a climate scientist working for ICPAC who said that it is wrong to say that there is no El Nino in the country.
“It’s not that there is no El Nino. Whatever people understand about El Nino is that there will be too much rainfall like the one we experienced in 1997,” she said.
“There are some areas in the country that are receiving extreme rainfall, Garissa is one such example,” she added.
Also Read: Last-minute rush to deal with El Nino
Data from the country’s meteorological department shows that the seven-day forecast in early October, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kisumu and Migori stations recorded very heavy rainfalls.
“The highest seven-day rainfall total (119.9mm) was recorded at Nyaroya Rainfall Station in Migori County,” shows an update from KMD.
Ms Koech told the Nation that El Nino does not really mean continuous extreme rainfall all at once in the whole country. She explains that rainfall distribution varies in different parts of the country.
“For instance, when it rains in Nairobi every day but for a short time amounting to above average rainfall, it may be different for Garissa where it may rain heavily continuously for a whole week,” she said
“People should keep watch and should not let their guard down,” she added.
She says that only time will tell, and that the peak season for the short rains is November.
“Once the October-November-December seasons ends, if we look at the average rainfall then, we will likely have a more than usual average rainfall amount,” she said.
“People assume because the sun is out in Nairobi then there is no El Nino. We may not pin down exactly why it is hot now, but it does not mean that we don’t have El Nino. The prediction still stands and people should not expect heavy rainfall every day, and everywhere,” she explained.
