Weatherman warns of flooding as rainy season starts

Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has warned of floods, landslides and outbreak of vector-borne diseases with heavy rains expected in most parts of the country as the long rains season starts.

This comes as the weatherman cautioned that ongoing drought in Northern Kenya is likely to continue with the region expected to only receive near average rainfall, while also warning of increase in cases of dengue and chikungunya fevers in the Coastal region.

In its forecast for March-April-May long rains season, the weatherman said above normal rainfall is expected over highlands of the Rift Valley including Nairobi, the Lake Victoria Basin and the southeastern region.

However, near average rainfall is expected over northern Kenya and the Coastal regions.

The enhanced rains is likely to see the high water level in Lake Victoria and the Rift Valley lakes rise further as well as leading to flash floods with cases flooding in flood-prone areas such as Budalangi and Nyando as well as along River Tana and Athi River.

Landslides or mudslides is expected in the hilly areas around the Rift Valley to the East and West leading to structural damage to roads, bridges and sub-standard infrastructure which may in turn result in transport challenges, damage to property and loss of lives.

“The floods or landslides may lead to displacement of people and wildlife with possible loss of lives, livelihoods and destruction of property. Slippery roads and poor visibility during rainstorms may also pose a danger to motorists and pedestrians,” said KMD Director Stella Aura.

Lightning strikes are highly probable, especially in Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Bungoma (Mt. Elgon areas) and Kakamega Counties.

In the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), drought related impacts such as water scarcity and lack of pasture for domestic use, livestock and wildlife are likely to continue especially at the beginning of the season with expected food scarcity over the ASAL regions leading to malnutrition-related diseases.

Last year, drought left more than two million Kenyans in more than 23 counties facing acute food shortage due to poor rainfall performance.

Already, some parts of northern Kenya and the coastal region have begun experiencing drought conditions with more than 5,000 livestock dying and learning in schools over the Northern parts of the country disrupted.

In regards to health, the weatherman has warned of breakout of vector-borne diseases such as malaria over the Lake Victoria Basin, northern Kenya and the Coastal areas.

“In areas expected to receive near to above average rainfall, water borne diseases such as cholera, diarrhea and typhoid may emerge as a result of flooding and subsequent contamination of water,” said Met.

According to the forecast, the peak of the rains is expected to be in the month of April for most regions except over the Coastal region where the peak is expected in May.

“March to May period is the major rainfall season over most of Kenya and much of equatorial Eastern Africa,” said Ms Aura.

For southern parts of the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria basin covering Narok, Bomet, Kericho and parts of Kajiado as well as Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira, rainfall is expected to continue from until June.

The highlands West of Rift Valley will have their onset between the second and third week of March till June, while areas east of the Rift Valley will have their onset between the third and fourth week of March and end between the third and fourth week of May.

This covers Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, West Pokot, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, and Nairobi.

For Central Rift Valley including Nakuru and Laikipia Counties, the rainfall will start between third and fourth week of March and continue into June.

For south eastern lowlands of Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, parts of Tana River and Taita Taveta, the onset will be on the third and fourth week of March and end in the second and third week of May, while for Coastal region covering Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties, the rains will start in the fourth week of March and continue into June.

The northern part of the country covering Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit and parts Isiolo, Turkana and Samburu will have its onset between the fourth week of March and first week of April and end between the third and fourth week of May.

A review of the short rains season of between October and December revealed that several parts of the country received depressed rainfall which was poorly distributed in time and space.

This left residents of ASAL areas faced with acute food shortage and children severely malnourished as well as livestock deaths.