CEO Elon Musk pledged Tesla would return to growth this year after the company posted its first-ever sales decline in 2024. But the odds look stacked against him.
Relentless protests in many countries against the billionaire's involvement in US President Donald Trump's administration and far-right politics in Europe have tarnished the image of the once-leading electric vehicle brand. That was a key factor behind Tesla posting a 13 percent drop in quarterly deliveries on Wednesday, the weakest in nearly three years.
Now, investors and analysts are bracing for a fall in Tesla sales again this year.
"This is our first look at the impact of recent brand damage - and it appears to be the primary driver behind this quarter's delivery decline," Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said on X. "These growth rates will likely deteriorate further this quarter."
Munster estimates 2025 deliveries will be 9 percent below the 1.79 million Tesla reported last year.
It is not all down to politics. Fans have long bemoaned the automaker's aging lineup even as rivals including BYD in China - where competition is especially tough, have introduced EVs that compete with the popular Tesla Model Y SUV. In Europe, too, Tesla is losing ground.
The company did refresh the Model Y, with deliveries starting in China in late February, and investors are watching whether that makes a difference to sales in the coming quarters.
Still, Deutsche Bank analysts expect a 5 percent sales drop this year, assuming a staggered rollout of Tesla's anticipated cheaper car. Tesla is expected to prioritise delivery volumes at the cost of margins again this year with more incentives and lucrative financial deals, they said.
Gary Black, managing partner of Tesla shareholder The Future Fund, expects the company's 2025 delivery and profit "will go much lower" if the cheaper vehicle is simply a barebones version of an existing model instead of a new product that appeals to more customers.
Barclays analysts said the first-quarter delivery number "sets a challenging path for even flat year-on-year volume in 2025."
Last year, Musk had promised 20 percent to 30 percent volume growth in 2025. He did not reiterate this in January, saying instead, Tesla was "working hard" to grow its annual volumes.
On Wednesday, Tesla said retooling production lines for the refreshed Model Y across all four of its factories led to the loss of several weeks of production during the first quarter.
On Thursday, Tesla stock closed down 5.5 percent, after major swings on Wednesday following Trump's announcement of steeper-than-expected tariffs and the delivery numbers.
From a peak of $488.54 in mid-December, it is down 45 percent, though Musk remains the world's richest person, according to Forbes.
Musk has said tariffs will mean more costs for the EV maker, which imports substantial quantities of materials used to make batteries.
Morningstar analysts said tariffs on such parts could add at least 5 percent to 10 percent to Tesla's vehicle cost.
But it is Musk's embrace of far-right politics in Europe and work as an adviser to Trump at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), overseeing steep cuts to the US federal workforce and funds for humanitarian projects that could end up being more costly for Tesla.
Tesla cars, showrooms and charging stations have been vandalised, prompting the Trump administration to launch investigations and threaten strict action.
On Saturday, at a protest in front of a showroom east of San Francisco, hundreds of people took to the streets with placards and megaphones, calling on consumers to boycott Tesla vehicles and stock. Passing motorists honked and cheered in support.
"He could have found efficiency. Instead, he just fired people," said Rachelle Mazar, a 66-year-old retired nurse attending the protest. "He's a very dangerous force in our country right now," she said, holding up a poster that read "Dump Tesla."
Politico reported on Wednesday that Musk was planning to step down from his DOGE role earlier than expected, but the White House said he would depart when his work was complete.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a noted Tesla bull, said Musk's involvement at DOGE "is not sustainable and the longer Musk stays at DOGE this adds more risk to the Tesla story and could face permanent brand damage."
