The winning time at the Chicago Marathon women’s race was remarkable, achieved by a remarkable runner.
In setting a new world record time of 2 hours 9 minutes 56 seconds, the first sub 2:10 by a woman in history, Ruth Chepngetich ripped apart the projected times for women in this mythical of races.
She also re-ignited a conversation amongst sports scientists on how fast a woman can run a marathon while sending the sports statisticians back to the drawing board to decide whether they should create a new mixed men and women listing in future to accommodate the pedigree of Chepngetich.
Will Chepngetich sent sports scientists back to the labs to recalibrate time lines, probabilities and predictions of fast times by women?
A paper published in the Journal of Applied Physiology, Respiratory, Environment and Exercise Physiology in 2015 predicted that man will run under 2 hours by 2032.
This was before Nike and Ineos attempted their sub 2 hours projects in Milan and Vienna between 2016-2019 featuring Kipchoge and groups of carefully selected pacemakers.
On May 6, 2017, Kipchoge came close with a 2:00:25 run at Nike's Breaking2 event at Monza, Italian Formula One circuit.
Then, on October 12, 2019, at a special time trial in Vienna, Kipchoge completed the 42.187km distance in 1 hour:59 minutes 40 seconds, breaking the mythical two hours and under.
But for women, it remains a far-way projection which some scientists predicting a sub 2 hours run could come around 2067.Others have said that the equivalent of the 2 hour marathon has been achieved by a woman based on mathematical calculations of previous world records.
But Chepngetich has proven all of them wrong based on findings published in Medicine & Science, Sports and Exercise journal in July 2019.
Titled, “for the Sub 2 Marathon,” Simon D. Angus, Ph.D., Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria, Australia wrote:; “At the benchmark odds level (1 in 10, or 10% likely), the expected sub–2-h arrival time is found to be May 2032 for men.
“By estimating the model for male and female world record progressions, I find that marathon times for males and females (at 1 in 10) are 1:58: 5 s and 2:05:31, respectively."
Based on his argument, then Chepngetich is only 4 minutes 25 seconds shy of the fastest possible time a woman can run the marathon, and she is already contradicting all previous studies.
The paper in the Journal of Applied Physiology, Respiratory, Environment and Exercise Physiology journal, written by Andrew M. Jones of the University of Exeter and Sandra Hunter of Marquette University, concluded that the 2 hours marathon by a woman based on the performance of men had already been achieved.
“Based on comparisons of the top 50 marathon times run by men and women, we argue that Paula Radcliffe's world record of 2:15:25 set in 2003 is at least equivalent to a two-hour marathon for women. We also provide evidence that there is less depth in elite women's distance running, in part, due to historical and social factors that have led to less opportunity for women than men
“The simplest approach to determine the equivalent 2-hour marathon time for women is to calculate the time difference (from 2 hours) based on the relative sex difference in the World Record(10%).
The current WR performances are 2:02:57 for men (Dennis Kimetto, 2014) and 2:15:25 for women (Paula Radcliffe, 2003), so that a synonymous time for women is 2:12:00. Several indicators, however, suggest a 12–13% sex difference is more appropriate and that the World record by Radcliffe is essentially the equivalent of a 2-hour marathon for women.”
There is also the question of whether shoe companies are borrowing from Formula One car racing cutting edge technology in making ‘shoes on wheels’ to propel human beings forward and faster.
Chepngetich’s Nike Alphafly3 super shoe, retailing for Sh37,000 was released in January this year but is being credited for aiding in her good run.
In being good enough to place 11th overall in Chicago this year, Chepngetich's time stands at position 1,433 in the World Athletics’ all-time best marathon listing.
Australian Derek Clayton, was the first man to breach the 2:10 hour barrier at the Fukuoka Marathon with a time of 2:09:36 in 1967.
Chepngetich eclipsed the previous world record of Ethiopians Tigst Assefa of 2:11:53 by shaving 1 minute 57 seconds.
Assefa, the previously highest ranked woman on the all-time marathon list at position, 2,589 surprised the world with her solo run in Berlin Marathon last year where she shaved 2 minutes 11 seconds of the 2:14:04 record set by Kenya’s Brigid Kosgei on October 13, 2019.
Chepngetich, whose previous best marathon time was 2:14:18 set in Chicago on October 9, 2022, has been searching for the world record for the last two years.
Norwegian Grete Waitz ran 4 minutes 57 seconds faster when she set a new world record of 2:27:33 in the 1979 New York Marathon.
American Joan Benoit sliced 2:46 from Waitz’s world record when she posted a new world record of 2:22:43 in the 1983 Boston Marathon (when Boston still counted as a record-eligible course).
Paula Radcliffe of Britain set a new world mark of 2:15:25 in London 2003 running 1min 53sec faster than her own previous mark set in Chicago in 2002.
Before that, American Beth Bonner, dipped by 5:50 minutes of her record of 2:55:22 in the 1971 Philadelphia marathon.
That same year, American Cheryl Bridges slashed 5:42 minutes of Bonner's time with her 2:49:40 at the Western Hemisphere Marathon in December 1971.
Chepngetich’s achievement will now turn the focus on how faster a woman can run the marathon in a world still pre-occupied by if and when a man will run the first sub 2 hours marathon.
1 2:09:56 Ruth Chepngetich (Kenya) - Chicago Oct 13, 2024
2 2:11:53 Tigst Assefa (Ethiopia) - Berlin Sep 24, 2023
3 2:13:44 Sifan Hassan (Netherlands)- Chicago Oct 08, 2023
4 2:14:04 Brigid Kosgei (Kenya) - Chicago Oct 13, 2019
5 2:14:58 Amane Beriso Shankule (Ethiopa) - Valencia Dec 4, 2022
6 2:15:25 Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain) - London Apr 13, 2003
7 2:15:51 Worknesh Degefa (Ethiopia) - Valencia Dec 03, 2023
8 2:15:55 Sutume Asefa Kebede (Ethiopia) - Tokyo Mar 3, 2024 1276
9 2:16:07 Tigist Ketema (Ethiopia) - Dubai Jan 7, 2024 1274
10 2:16:14 Rosemary Wanjiru (Kenya) - Tokyo Mar 3, 2023
