Win, and there’s still hope of clinching a playoff slot. Lose, and a ticket to Pretoria, South Africa becomes a painful chapter instead of a memorable one.

The Kenyan side will definitely need to be at their best to avenge Sunday’s heavy 115–87 defeat to fellow debutantes Al Ahli.

The Libyans are enjoying their debut after notching three wins out of three, while Thunder are still searching for their maiden win of the competition.

Al Ahli’s 90-68 win over hosts Armee Patriotique Rwandaise on Tuesday, put them top of the pool ahead of the home side. Newbies South Africa’s Made by Ball Basketball (MBB)’s dramatic 75-74 win over Thunder sees them maintain third spot ahead of the latter.  

Each team will play their group opponents twice in the tournament, which concludes on May 25.

The top two teams from the Nile Conference will automatically qualify for the 2025 BAL playoffs. The third-place finisher still has a chance, advancing as one of the two best-ranked third-place teams across the three conferences. 

On Tuesday, the Kenyan lads were 3.3 seconds away from their first win, but watched their hopes vanish as Robinson Opong buried a cold-blooded three-pointer for MBB.

The court erupted on one end, while on the other, Thunder players stood still, eyes wide, hearts heavy.

There it was: the thin line between joy and despair, drawn in bold ink under the bright lights of the BK Arena in Kigali. Thunder had fought hard. They played with heart, hunger, and a point to prove.

Thunder head coach Brad Ibs lamented his team’s lack of discipline in the closing stages.

“Yeah, I think after we got the big lead, I think we got out of character. We stopped playing, especially defensively. I also think we stopped playing according to our principles,” said Ibs.

“You could see a lot of reaching, we were getting a lot of silly fouls, and I think that just kind of swung the momentum of the game in their favour. So I think it was just a matter of just making the right kind of simple, disciplined basketball play down the stretch that hurt us,” he added.

This wasn’t just another game — it was about survival, about keeping their BAL journey alive. And for 39 minutes and 56 seconds, it looked like they would do it.

Captain Tylor Ongwae, the emotional centre of the squad, gave everything — dropping 20 points and leading with authority.

Evans Ganapamo added 21 points, slicing through defenders and making smart plays. But in the end, one shot changed everything.

This wasn’t Thunder’s first heartbreak of the tournament — but it may be the one that stings the most. After the crushing defeat to Al Ahli Tripoli in their second match, many had written them off. But those who truly follow Thunder know this team is built differently.

Even in that loss, there were glimpses of promise. Eugene Adera played like a man with something to prove. Ongwae, once again, displayed the composure and resilience that defines his leadership. They didn’t win, but they never stopped fighting.

Their tournament opener against APR told a similar tale. The talent is there — Ongwae and William Davis III both made solid, double-digit contributions. But a mix of critical errors — the kind only experience erases — and the electric energy of a home crowd tipped the game out of reach and they lost 92-63.

It’s not a lack of effort. It’s not a lack of belief. The missing link might just be composure under pressure and smarter game management. Over and over again, Thunder has proven they can compete with Africa’s best.

But basketball is a game of moments — and in the biggest moments, decisions must be precise, not rushed. Plays must be executed, not hoped for.

Ibs has a strong core to work with. Players like Albert Odero, Garang Diing, and Adera have stepped up. The foundation is there— solid, promising, and full of potential. But foundations don’t win games. Execution does.

It’s easy to get lost in statistics and standings. But Thunder is more than just a team. They are the heartbeat of a city and the pride of a nation hungry for recognition on Africa’s biggest basketball stage.

Maybe that final three-pointer will haunt them for a while. Or maybe — just maybe — it’ll become the spark that ignites a comeback story no one saw coming.