The August 2022 General Election is nine months away, but as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said, “a week is a long time in politics”.
Last Friday, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga launched his presidential bid. Pundits have had a field day debating on whether this time round the son of Jaramogi would occupy the house on the hill.
There are a number of things that will be different in his fifth bid, the obvious one being his closeness to the state. In the past, Raila ran as an outsider. One may argue that in 2013 he was a government insider having been a sitting PM. That is far from the truth. While President Kibaki did not declare his preferred successor, those around him vouched for Mr Uhuru Kenyatta.
Let’s take a moment and analyse Raila’s previous presidential bids. The first was in 1997. Then he was still a political novice having just been elected to Parliament. The stab then must have been more about announcing his entry into national politics rather than winning the election. Even then, he emerged third after President Daniel arap Moi and Mr Mwai Kibaki.
In 2007, Raila took the country by storm. President Kibaki had to play catch up. The election ended in a stalemate though many believed Raila was robbed of his victory.
The 2013 and 2017 elections were both close calls, ending in disputes at the Supreme Court. In 2017, the court agreed with Raila that the election was full of irregularities and ordered a repeat poll.
The March 2018 ‘handshake’ has been hailed and vilified almost in equal measure. Proponents of the handshake believe that it brought peace to the country. Indeed, President Kenyatta can go to Kisumu anytime and receive a heroic reception. Raila has also been embraced by some of the previous hardliners from Mt Kenya region.
These were unimaginable prior to the ‘handshake’. The critics of the handshake have blamed it for all manner of things, from ‘stalled government projects’ to the economic challenges facing the country. They have just fallen short of blaming Covid-19 on the handshake. Today, Raila stands a chance of slicing a portion of Mt Kenya votes.
The other important factor that Raila now has is the state support. Since the introduction of multiparty politics in 1992, all presidential elections with the exception of the 2002 poll, have been disputed. This time round, Raila has the state machinery on his side.
