Elections make a difference in any democratic society.
At least we know this from history because we have seen elections provide the opportunity for a new beginning.
In an ideal situation, elections provide an opportunity for people to evaluate leaders and policy choices.
They have identified problems such as the cost of living, corruption, unemployment, and poor services as priorities to address.
Indeed, Kenyans want a government that will effectively address these challenges.
But there are concerns that what many leaders are giving is empty rhetoric because voters have heard it all before.
But to know whether an election is providing an opportunity to break with the past and lay good conditions for development, one must pay attention to three things.
Two is the effectiveness of institutions managing the elections or supporting the electoral process.
We now turn to each of them to examine the extent to which the 2022 General Election provides an opportunity to break with the past or reinforce the status quo.
From the outside, one may argue that the election is laying a foundation for choosing good leaders and making sound development policies.
In fact, close to half of voters think elections will not bring any change to the country or even where they live.
To them, it does not matter how they vote, because nothing will change.
This hope dissipates immediately after you analyse the quality of candidates who the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has passed and gazetted to run for various posts.
Whether it is the post of Member of County Assembly (MCA), Member of Parliament (Senate and National Assembly), or even the county governor, the list comprises many dishonest and deceitful people.
They place blockages everywhere using their influence. And if blockages do not work, they eliminate those complaining about them.
In other words, these are real crooks. They are looking for power to maintain this unscrupulous behaviour.
It does not matter how unethical this conduct is, but this is their hidden motto.
Institutional character and failure
How did we end up here? Various institutions have brought the country to this level where anyone with an ongoing court case is allowed to run for office.
This messy state of affairs began way back in 2012 and early 2013 when the High Court failed to prevent President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto from running as candidates.
In some of the arguments, the court argued that it did not have jurisdiction on the matter and was not the one to determine who the IEBC should clear to run.
any other people argued that the court had better pronounce itself on Article 10 and also Chapter Six of the Constitution.
On the whole, no country that stands on the pillars of rule of law and democracy would have allowed this to happen.
Even for both of these leaders to have chosen to run for office with such a monumental matter on their necks speaks a lot about the character of leaders in Kenya.
They should have waited for their cases at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to end and, if cleared, then run for office in 2017. That is what patriotism is about.
Things have not changed. This precedent opened the gate for many other individuals with ongoing cases to parade themselves for office.
The 2022 elections are not different. But it is the IEBC that has provided the widest open gate for individuals without integrity to stand for office.
The Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission presented a list of people who, from an ethics point of view, did not merit clearance by the IEBC or would have required the IEBC to review their cases further.
But to run away from the matter as the High Court did in 2012 and 2013, the IEBC hid behind “independence”.
The electoral agency argued that it is independent and does not take instructions from anybody. Fair enough.
But this is about cultivating conditions to grow integrity in Kenya. It is about establishing a strong foundation to ensure the country gets to choose from only the most honest and credible leaders.
With this thinking, the IEBC has allowed unscrupulous individuals to run for office.
We are going to have our county governments run by people who are dishonest and lacking in integrity.
We are going to have MPs and MCAs whose only claim to fame is a high-profile criminal case in court.
With these candidates – and many will win their respective posts – the 2022 election does not hold the promise to change the counties, the wards and the constituencies they will represent.
The quality of voters matters too. But as mentioned earlier, voters are concerned that the leaders they elect will not deliver change.
Because of this, if not in spite of it, voters are demanding that the candidates standing for office pay them some money.
Across the country, candidates are compelled to pay people to travel for rallies.
There are even hilarious cases of people demanding “listening fees”, “shouting fees”, and “fees to outcompete rivals”.
Voters are not hiding these demands. In many counties, you will notice long queues of voters in the homes of candidates, from MCAs, governors and MPs.
The amount they get varies considerably. Turkana, Wajir, Mandera and other Northern counties are areas where the voters get as much as Sh1,000 from candidates.
In Central, candidates give between Sh200 and 500 but the pressure for Sh1,000 is on the rise.
Sh50 was common in many parts of Eastern and Rift Valley in 2017 but this seems to have increased to Sh100 and more.
The increasing demand for money by voters, and the willingness of politicians to part with it, has certainly defeated the purpose of having a credible election.
The poor quality of voters, combined with the failure of the IEBC and the courts to insist on conditions for breaking with the past, has meant a weak foundation for better leadership and development.
It is possible that the country, after August 2022, will have leaders who don’t care much about Kenya’s future development.
It is possible that Kenya will have many leaders whose main interest is to advance self-interest and enrich themselves.
This point also draws from the occupations of many people running for office. Most are ‘businessmen’ and ‘businesswomen’. These are clear ring tones of trouble.
Prof Karuti Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, [email protected] , @karutikk
