Don’t underestimate Kalonzo’s political value in 2027

In Kenya’s ever-changing political landscape, where alliances shift and loyalties are tested, one politician’s enduring relevance deserves renewed attention: Kalonzo Musyoka, leader of the Wiper Patriotic Front. From Daniel arap Moi’s KANU to Mwai Kibaki’s government and Raila Odinga’s opposition coalitions, Kalonzo has demonstrated political value recognised by successive leaders.

As the country gears up for next year’s elections and realignments take shape, neither the government nor the United Opposition should underestimate his political acumen.

Moi, a shrewd political strategist, understood the importance of alliances beyond traditional centres of power. He recognised Kalonzo’s potential as an asset within KANU, appreciating his ability to mobilise support, negotiate across political divides and influence the national political equation.

Moi understood a fundamental truth about Kenyan elections: popularity alone does not guarantee victory. Political arithmetic, trusted relationships and regional interests matter equally. Kalonzo possessed qualities that made him valuable in that equation.

Mwai Kibaki, despite emerging from a different political tradition, similarly recognised Kalonzo’s worth. His appointment of Kalonzo as Vice-President demonstrated confidence in his capacity to contribute to national leadership and strengthen a broader coalition. It confirmed that Kalonzo was more than a regional leader; he was a politician whose influence mattered in government.

Political relevance

Raila Odinga shared this assessment. His decision to select Kalonzo as running mate twice demonstrated sustained confidence in his political relevance. A running mate is not merely a constitutional accessory.

The position carries political weight, requiring someone who can strengthen alliances, mobilise support and complement the presidential candidate’s national appeal. Both CORD and NASA campaigns went to the wire, and to date, no one can explain how Raila lost those two elections.

Their partnership had its complexities, but Raila’s repeated choice of Kalonzo underlined a central reality: cooperation can offer advantages that competing separately may not. Raila’s defeat in 2022 illustrates Kalonzo’s political importance. His failure to secure the running-mate position reportedly disappointed many Kenyans, whose discontent was evident at the ballot box.

My conversations with Raila brought this point into sharper focus. Before the burial of Ong’ondo Were, I met Baba at an undisclosed location in Nairobi. During our discussion, he reflected on his 2022 presidential election defeat and expressed his desire to continue working closely with Kalonzo and me.

His remarks offered insight into his assessment of the electoral contest. They were his personal views, not proof that different alliances would necessarily have changed the outcome. Nevertheless, they demonstrated the importance he attached to Kalonzo’s participation and my contribution to his political team.

Raila also expressed his desire to have me back in his camp ahead of 2027, serving as a striker wearing jersey “Number 9” alongside Kalonzo. During Ong’ondo Were’s burial, I told people that I had visited Raila and had not gone at night like Nicodemus. In Baba’s presence, I explained that he had asked me to return and outlined the role I was to undertake.

Political movements

These conversations reinforced an important lesson: political movements are built not by personalities alone, but by trusted relationships, capable lieutenants and alliances that unite different constituencies around a common purpose.

As the 2027 elections approach, realignments will intensify. The government will seek to consolidate support, while the United Opposition will attempt to assemble a formidable coalition. Neither side should dismiss Kalonzo as merely a regional kingpin or assume his support can be taken for granted.

His experience, negotiating ability, political networks and capacity to remain relevant across successive administrations make him consequential. His decisions could influence coalition arithmetic, campaign momentum and the balance of political forces. Whether he joins a particular alliance or pursues another strategy, his choices deserve serious consideration.

Kenyan politics is often driven by immediate calculations, but seasoned politicians understand that elections are won through numbers, strategy, credibility and relationships. Kalonzo’s political journey illustrates how patience and consistency can preserve influence through changing circumstances.

Ultimately, Kalonzo’s value should not be measured solely by the office he occupies or the presidential candidate he supports. It should be assessed by his ability to contribute to a credible national coalition and advance a vision that responds to citizens’ aspirations.

In my honest opinion as a citizen, and without implying allegiance to any political formation, any faction that underestimates Kalonzo’s political value next year will be making a suicidal move. Take this to the bank!

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The writer is a Commissioner with the Parliamentary Service Commission.