Kenya borrowed extensively from the US electoral system, yet one critical element – the Electoral College – was left out. Why didn’t we adopt this system instead of relying solely on the popular vote? The Electoral College could address historical electoral injustices and malpractices that have plagued our elections.
For years, elections in Kenyan universities were conducted through a popular vote, often resulting in chaos and even fatalities. However, since transitioning to an Electoral College system, university elections have been remarkably peaceful. When was the last time you heard of violence or unrest during UNSA elections at the University of Nairobi?
Similarly, adopting an Electoral College system for Kenya’s presidential elections could resolve perennial issues such as voter manipulation, the inclusion of “dead votes,” and regional disparities. It would also foster inclusivity, with electoral battlegrounds determined by the incumbent government’s performance across all 47 counties.
In the 2024 US elections, for instance, the outcome hinged on seven battleground states: North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. President Trump won by securing these key states, despite losing the popular vote – a scenario also seen in his 2016 victory.
How would Kenya implement an electoral college system? Kenya’s 290 constituencies could serve as the foundation for distributing Electoral College votes across the 47 counties. Under this system, each county would be allocated electoral votes based on its constituencies. For example, Nairobi, with 17 constituencies, would have 17 electoral votes. A candidate winning the majority vote in a county would claim all its electoral votes. To win, a candidate must secure at least 50 per cent plus one of the total electoral votes, or 246 out of 490. In the unlikely event of a tie (245–245), the 47 senators would vote to elect the president.
What will happen to the new Kenyan electoral landscape? Every part of Kenya would matter politically, eliminating the “tyranny of numbers” and regional dominance. The current inequities of “one-man-one-vote-one-shilling” politics would end, ensuring equitable resource distribution and representation. The focus would shift to battleground counties, where election transparency is easier to enforce. Rigging is more likely in perceived strongholds, but this system minimises such opportunities.
The influence of ethnicity in elections would diminish. Candidates would prioritise counties over ethnic blocs, and running mates would likely come from battleground regions, diluting divisive ethnic politics. The system would encourage the growth of strong, ideology-driven parties, akin to the Republicans and Democrats in the US. By focusing resources on battleground counties, election costs would decrease, reducing the financial burden on taxpayers. The shift would promote unity, with leaders accountable to all Kenyans rather than specific strongholds.
Our election simulations suggest the outcome of Kenya’s 2022 presidential race would have been different under an Electoral College system. Azimio won 25 counties, compared to Kenya Kwanza’s 22, including Nairobi’s 17 electoral votes.
By our calculations, Azimio would have garnered 258 electoral votes against Kenya Kwanza’s 232 – securing the presidency. Looking ahead to 2027, the battlegrounds could shift to historically underrepresented regions, depending on government performance.
Dr Odhiambo, PhD, is an outstanding Actuaries in Academia Award winner and lecturer at Meru University of Science and Technology . [email protected]
