The war in Ukraine is nearing its third year as its toll mounts. Kenya and Africa are still reeling from its negative impacts.
We have yet to recover from the surge in food, energy and fertiliser prices, which worsened post-Covid-19 inflation and poverty. Meanwhile, the spread of illicit and lethal weapons from Ukraine is fuelling insecurity in many parts of the continent.
In addition, thousands of African students lost study opportunities, affecting Africa’s human capital development.
African leaders are maintaining “strategic ambiguity” about the conflict to avoid being entangled in global geopolitics. In the early months of the war, they went to Ukraine and Russia to broker peace but failed.
They should now throw their weight behind the efforts of US President Donald Trump to silence the guns. There is renewed hope for peace, thanks to the US's significant diplomatic, economic and military leverage and Trump’s approach.
Unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump acknowledges what many consider to be the root cause of the conflict, namely the rapid expansion of the US-led Nato military alliance to Russia’s borders, including the potential Nato membership for Ukraine.
Nato stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, a coalition of 32 nations for mutual defence if one is attacked. It was formed in 1949 to protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union.
Recently, Trump said he “understood” Russia’s concerns about Nato expansion and slammed plans to include Ukraine in Nato.
Since the Soviet collapse in 1991, the coalition has absorbed 13 ex-Soviet countries and satellites and reached the Russian borders. Six Nato countries now share a border with Russia.
They are Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Norway and Finland. The latter joined Nato in 2023, ditching the decades-old policy of non-alignment. Russia sees Nato’s eastward expansion as a threat to its security as offensive military weapons are stationed directly on its doorstep. This has strengthened its fear of being encircled by the West.
It claims the expansion violates assurances provided in the 1990s. Of particular concern is the prospect of Ukraine joining Nato.
Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly termed this as a red line. Ukraine’s case is unique compared to other ex-Soviet states. The two countries share deep cultural, linguistic and religious ties.
The origins of the Russia are often traced back to Kyivan Rus, a medieval state in modern-day Ukraine. Geopolitically, Ukraine serves as a buffer between Russia and NATO.
Economically, Ukraine is crucial for Russia's access to the Black Sea and for energy transit. The presence of substantial numbers of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking communities in Ukraine also made it a focal point for Russian national interests.
Before Russia’s regrettable invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden Administration rejected proposal for a neutral status for Ukraine and insisted that the country would join NATO eventually. This speeded up the march to war.
Russia's security concerns regarding NATO are not unreasonable. The US would certainly not accept another global power to form military pacts with its neighbours Mexico or Canada or deploy weapons on their territory.
Doing so would threaten the security of the US. In the 1960s, America almost went to war with the Soviet Union over the latter’s attempts to place advanced missiles in Cuba. The Soviets would have been able to easily strike any part of mainland USA.
As Trump works to end the war, Ukraine may need to look beyond the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky. He may not be the best partner for peace. He has consistently rejected peace negotiations with Russia in favour of continuing the war.
He even issued a decree banning peace talks. He’s likely to sabotage efforts to settle the unnecessary war.
Ending the war in Ukraine is not just good for the warring parties. The benefits will extend globally, including to Kenya and Africa.
The war should never have started. Let Africa and the world focus more on preventing conflicts rather than resolving them after they have started.
Adam Ahmed and A.A. Jamah lead the Global South Forum, a think tank on political and development issues ([email protected] )
