The 22 by-elections yesterday, which were ongoing by the time of writing, were a canary in the mine, sent down to fly around and test the voter bribery, rigging, use of state resources, violence and other malpractices as the country mentally prepares for the General Election less than two years away.
From what we have seen so far, 2027 will likely be the most trying election, if the election is held at all, that Kenya has had since 1963, and that is saying something. A man I met was recounting, with great admiration for the people of Mbeere North, his recent experiences in that part of the country to which I am also not stranger, having gone to school there and passing through at least once a week. You could tell there was an election from the restless excitement of the folk and the regular inconvenience of finding campaign teams having a meeting in the middle of the road and totally blocking motorists — something I have not previously experienced.
This man told me that the people of Mbeere are well-mannered and civilised: when a visiting campaign team offered to bribe them, they did not jostle and fight for the money as happens across the border in the Meru. They formed orderly, peaceful queues, ensuring that the women, starting with the old ones, were paid first. Then came the men. There was peace and order throughout. And when poor candidates who didn’t have money to pour drove up, the people did not abuse them and stone them, as happens to less well-endowed candidates on the Meru side of the border. Here, the folks just peacefully sent them on their away. In his book, these were very good people. Voter bribery is no longer frowned upon; it is expected and appreciated.
There were by-elections in 22 electoral areas yesterday — MCA candidates in Tembelio in Moiben and Metkei in Keiyo South were elected unopposed, and so there was no voting in those wards. However, voting took place in 18 counties, specifically a Senatorial seat, six National Assembly (MP) constituency seats and 15 Member of County Assembly (MCA) Ward seats. There were elections in Samburu, Nandi, Tana River, Nyamira, Garissa, Bungoma, Nairobi, Kakamega, Turkana, Machakos, Narok, Kilifi, Baringo, Homa Bay, Embu, Mandera, Siaya and Kajiado counties.
Political parties and aspiring candidates
That is 18 out of 47 counties have elections which makes it barometric for the government and the opposition: for the opposition, whether the government is as wildly unpopular as generally assumed, and for the government, whether its brutally no-holds-barred, anything goes approach actually worked.
The by-elections are also consequential for political parties and aspiring candidates. For example, there were two MCA races in Nyamira county, the home of presidential hopeful, Dr Fred Matiang’i, whose candidature has drawn more attention and comment than the rest: if the candidates of the party he is supporting win handily, the victories will profile him as a politician who has united and effectively commanded his base and is therefore worthy of asking other regions for alliances.
If on the other hand the candidates he supported loses, then he runs the risk of providing his legion of opponents and naysayers an attack line: that he is an otherwise beautiful, healthy and noisy dog that just won’t hunt.
Just like the impeachment of his governor who was elected on the ticket of the party Dr Matiang’i has previously been associated with, United Progressive Alliance (UPA), before he headed to Jubilee, in the red meat world of politics, if he engineered the moves, then he is praised as a lethal political operator, if it happened and he had no role or couldn’t stop it, then he is castigated as the opposite.
Political violence and intolerance
What do the by-elections tell us so far? First, the country is tense and suspicious, expecting UDA to rig. Secondly, people fear unprecedented levels of political violence and intolerance and, finally, the illegal use of state machinery to campaign for UDA.
Resistance by the opposition as well as confrontation during counting will likely create a tense period, during which the fate of the nation will be in the hands of an untested IEBC team in which the public has little or no confidence.
When a member of a political party went to a polling station in party colours, fragrant violation of the law, he was chased away by former AG Justin Muturi, who dismissed the election official in charge as “meek” and not doing anything to ensure the law is obeyed.
There was no attempt to mask the use of state resources in the by-election which the ruling party fought as if they were a general election. The river of largesse that has reportedly flowed in some parts of the country has never been seen before. In 1992, the late Murang’a grandee and Cabinet Secretary John Michuki was widely ridiculed for giving voters Sh50, they thought he was still living in the 1950s when Sh50 was money one could use to buy a calico. In these by-elections, peasants were seen on video talking about receiving “ngiri kumi” (Sh10,000), a 2000-fold increase in the voter bribe.
