Thirty-one per cent, or one-third, of Kenya’s labour force has never had a job. Of any description. And 38 per cent earn nothing. Only three per cent earn Sh50,000 or more.
These numbers are from a nationwide survey by Tifa conducted in the last week of June. And they paint the real—and existential crisis—our country faces. This should be the problem that our politics exists to solve.
And it is the reality that should be uppermost in the mind of the government as it goes about enforcing the Finance Act and the hardship it portends for an already suffering population.
Only 11 per cent of Kenyans have a permanent job. The rest, 29 per cent are self-employed (probably running an online boutique which makes 10 pence a year, or extortion accounts on dating sites or growing beans in Makandune ), 14 per cent are casual labourers, possibly on Sh500 a day, and four per cent have part-time jobs.
Our economy does not create jobs for us and our children. If a man with a confident manner, long hair and a big stomach tells you otherwise, he is lying. Like many people in the Promise Factory these days. Taxing those who have nothing is, indeed, the height of magic.
This is what the labour force, 18 and above, told the researchers: 12 per cent said they earned Sh5,000 or less a month, 13 per cent Sh10,000-20,000 and 10 per cent are the Okonkwos, earning princely sums of Sh20,000 to Sh50,000. As I said, the Egwugwus earning more than this are three per cent.
Kenyan workers, on whom everybody depends, are few and poorly paid. And now taxed to within an inch of extinction.
The cost of living has put people in a negative, sceptical and pessimistic frame of mind. Seventy-eight per cent said nothing good stood out in the budget for them. Two-thirds, or 61 per cent, said they had noticed the increases in the price of maize meal, 51 per cent mentioned sugar, 34 per cent the cost of fuel. Sixty-nine per cent do not support the Housing Tax, 24 per cent do, but 54 per cent are certain that even after paying it, they will not get a house. Only 11 per cent said they will certainly get one.
This is a depressing state of affairs and I have not had the energy to look at government statistics to see how things are progressing. The previous government used to announce the creation of jobs. Did they create them on the moon? Where are they?
In my way of thinking, there is one approach that has a chance, however small, of getting us out of this mountain of trouble: Focus. I have written over the years about leaders who changed their countries by identifying a few problems and throwing everything—including the kitchen sink—at them.
I have written eloquent praise to former Kwale governor Salim Mvurya and his laser focus on education. He gave bursaries to all children, at all levels of education, irrespective of tribe: If you came from Kwale, you got a bursary. This is going to have a massive impact on the coastal county’s trajectory of development, especially if it is sustained and there are efforts to create jobs for school leavers. If one kid becomes a nurse, or teacher, or engineer, the entire family changes.
Conversely, I can’t remember a government that made a notable difference by running from one issue to the other. It is not a unilinear application of focus, necessarily. A simplistic example: To address the cost of maize flour and youth unemployment. Suppose you say if a young person can prove he has access to an acre of land the government will ensure he accesses the Hustler Fund for capital, gets subsidised fertiliser and seed and guaranteed offtake of his maize at an agreed price?
So long as the system ensures the guy meets his side of the bargain, in one season, the question of total unemployment is dealt a blow, as are the cost of maize and this whole idea of people earning nothing. And you can pilot, learn and scale.
The problem is, folks will bring maize from Zambia and abandon our poor guy at the lights, or take the strategic stock and truck it to Sudan. There are solutions, but they require the courage to do less and discipline to deal with thieves and fraudsters.
For Kenya to have only 11 per cent of its labour properly employed is a very serious state of affairs. We don’t produce minerals; we produce good labour. Shouldn’t it be a priority to ensure that it is gainfully used?
For Kenya, an agricultural country, not having food is unfathomable. The collapse of agricultural prices in many parts of the country is so serious it should be a key electoral issue in 2027. How could the rural economy get buggered in so short a time?
Excessive taxation means there will be limited growth because households will have little in the way of reserves available for investment. Unemployment, lousy incomes and collapsing rural economies will compound poverty for many.
Maybe I am wrong, maybe the government has statistics which show a different picture. I sincerely hope so.
